Christmas Day Locks!
Merry Christmas to us all! What better way to spend Christmas than spending time opening gifts with family, having NBA games on in the background while the main TV has an NFL doubleheader on jam-packed with playoff implications. Let’s get to the picks!
Browns @ Packers (-7.5), O/U 46
This was a very sexy Christmas Day game before the season started. But the Browns have disappointed, taking some of the luster out of this game. Still, both of these teams have a ton to play for, which does create a ton of intrigue. The Browns are currently in last place in the AFC North, but sit just a game back from the top seed. The Packers have clinched their seemingly annual division title, and also sit atop the NFC in what is a very tight race. So both teams truly have a ton to play for.
The problem is this: the Packers are simply so much better than the Browns, on both sides of the ball. I don’t see the Browns approaching 20 points, and the Packers are a lock to be in the high 20s, low 30s. The only thing that could make this game competitive is the abysmal play of the Packers special teams, but that typically only plays a factor when the teams are close in overall talent. I’ll gladly lay the points with the Packers in a game where I think the spread should easily be double digits.
Picks: Packers -7.5 (Fort Knox), OVER 46 (Padlock)
Colts @ Cardinals (-2), O/U 48.5
Now this is a great nightcap for Christmas. The Colts are as hot as any team in the league right now as winners of 5 of their last 6. The division may be out of reach due to losing both games to the 10–5 Titans, but they’ll likely be one of the scarier Wild Card teams should they get into the postseason that way. Their opponent, the Cardinals, are in the midst of a total freefall. Just two weeks ago, this was a serious Super Bowl contender, in total control of the NFC West, and with the inside track to the NFC top seed. Fast forward to today, they’ve lost two straight, including being physically dominated in every way by the Lions, are tied atop the NFC West, and are now viewed more like pretenders than contenders.
I’m usually all about picking the team on the slide vs. the hot team because normally the spread would dictate that as the smart play. Not here. I am absolutely shocked that the Colts are the underdogs. If the Lions were able to physically impose their will on the Cardinals, both offensively and defensively, imagine what the Colts should be able to do. Give me the Colts here.
