Christmas Eve Locks: Week 16

Craig Ebinger
3 min readDec 24, 2022

Bills (-8) @ Bears, O/U 40

Cold is the theme this weekend. That shouldn’t faze the Bills though. They should score at will against the Bears and have no problem here. So I’ll lay the points with the Bills and take the over.

Picks: Bills -8 (Deadbolt), OVER 40 (Deadbolt)

Saints @ Browns (-3), O/U 32

Woah. I’ve never seen a total this low before. This is like Army-Navy low. So, needless to say, I’m all over the under. I’ll lay the field goal with the Browns too.

Picks: Browns -3 (Padlock), UNDER 32 (Fort Knox)

Texans @ Titans (-3.5), O/U 35

Malik Willis starting against the Texans again. Last time this happened, it was the Derrick Henry show. I’d expect a similar gameplan and result this time around. I’ll lay the field goal with the Titans and take the over.

Picks: Titans -3.5 (Padlock), OVER 35 (Deadbolt)

Seahawks @ Chiefs (-10.5), O/U 50

Another double digit spread for the Chiefs. Last week, they needed overtime to get past the Texans. I feel that every year the Chiefs have a bunch of these games where they don’t show much and just kind of hang around, only to win at the end by a narrow margin. I view this as one of those games. So I’ll take the points with the Seahawks here and take the under.

Picks: Seahawks +10.5 (Padlock), UNDER 50(Deadbolt)

Giants @ Vikings (-4), O/U 49.5

The Vikings never have a convincing win. The Giants always play tight games. The Vikings don’t really need this game. The Giants could really use a win. This almost feels too easy. I’ll take the points with the Giants and the over.

Picks: Giants +4 (Deadbolt), OVER 49.5 (Padlock)

Bengals (-3) @ Patriots, O/U 41.5

Bengals. Bengals. Bengals. Don’t overthink this. The Bengals are great. The Patriots stink. I’ll lay the field goal with Cincy and take the over (but really just the Bengals team total over).

Picks: Bengals -3 (Fort Knox), OVER 41.5 (Deadbolt)

Lions (-2.5) @ Panthers, O/U 43.5

This Lions team is so much fun right now. And they’re legitimately a talented roster. The Panthers defense is legit, but their offense is not scary whatsoever. The cold weather and Panthers being home should play some factor, but I’ll lay the points with the Lions and take the under (but really just the Panthers team total under).

Picks: Lions -2.5 (Deadbolt), UNDER 43.5 (Padlock)

Falcons @ Ravens (-6.5), O/U 35

I don’t feel great about this game. The Falcons stink. But the Ravens are not impressive at all, particularly offensively. And this is a ton of points. I’ll take the points with the Falcons and grab the under as well.

Picks: Falcons +6.5 (Padlock), UNDER 35 (Deadbolt)

Commanders @ 49ers (-6.5), O/U 37.5

This kind of has the feel of the end of the Heinicke era for Washington. Tough loss last week, road game against an elite powerhouse defense in the 49ers, playoff hopes on the line. I don’t think this one is particularly lose. I’ll lay the points with the 49ers and take the under (mostly Commanders team total under).

Picks: 49ers -6.5 (Fort Knox), UNDER 37.5 (Padlock)

Eagles @ Cowboys (-5.5), O/U 47.5

HUGE line swing after the news of Jalen Hurts became public. So now it’s Minshew time. And I feel this line moved far too much. The Cowboys are not good right now. The Eagles are still elite. Sure, Hurts has had a magical season and it’s a major downgrade, but the o-line and weapons are still there along with their elite defense. I’ll gladly take the points with the Birds here along with the under.

Picks: Eagles +5.5 (Deadbolt), UNDER 47.5 (Fort Knox)

Raiders @ Steelers (-2), O/U 38

Neither of these teams is likely to make the playoffs, but they’re both hoping to keep their hopes alive. I expect a highly competitive game here and I’ll lean towards the side with more talent that is also getting the points. So give me the points with the Raiders along with the over.

Picks: Raiders +2 (Padlock), OVER 38 (Padlock)

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Craig Ebinger

I like sports. I’m very opinionated. I like sharing my opinions and arguing senselessly with anyone who wants to argue.