Divisional Round Sunday Locks
Browns @ Chiefs (-9.5): O/U 57
The Browns beating the Steelers last week did not surprise me. The Browns demolishing the Steelers from the jump did surprise me. What an impressive performance. They’ll need another one if they want to have a chance in this battle against an extremely well-rested Chiefs team eager to defend their Super Bowl title.
I like the Browns in this one getting 9.5 points. For starters, the Chiefs had a bye week last week and rested their starters in Week 17, so I expect them to be slow to begin the game. On top of that, the Browns offense is dominant on the ground, which is the proven formula to beating (or at least staying close to) the Chiefs. Finally, the Chiefs played close games all season long. While part of that was likely due to them holding back some of their offense knowing they would be relevant in January anyway, I think the Browns can control the flow of this game and keep it relatively close the whole way. 30–23 Chiefs.
Picks: Browns +9.5 (Padlock), Under 57 (Padlock)
Buccaneers @ Saints (-2.5): O/U 52.5
3rd times the charm. The Saints won the first matchup between these teams back in Week 1 by 11. The Saints embarrassed the Bucs on national TV in their second matchup by a score of 38–3. But this is a different Bucs team than was playing in those two games. They have been clicking on all cylinders of late, with Tom Brady looking like he’s back in his prime. Still, the Saints have been one of the most consistent teams all season long and have been able to hang their hats on the strength of their dominant defense, to go along with the three-headed monster of Brees, Kamara, and Thomas on offense.
I like the Saints laying 2.5 here. I expect a much closer game than the first two matchups, and I expect it to be low scoring. I trust the Saints defense and versatility on offense more than the Buccaneers. But mostly I’m a sucker for the storyline, and I do believe this is Drew Brees’ final run. With that in mind, in his final home game, I expect him to engineer a late drive to either take the lead or seal the victory. 26–23 Saints.
