NFL Week 10 Locks
ATS Picks: 19–22
O/U Picks: 19–20–2
Jaguars @ Packers (-13.5): O/U 47.5
ATS: Jaguars:3–5, Packers: 6–2
O/U: Jaguars: 4–3, Packers: 6–2
It was an impressive showing in his NFL debut last week for Jake Luton, but his second challenge appears to be much more difficult. The Packers enter this one with a little extra rest due to playing last Thursday night, and are eager to steamroll another weaker opponent as they’ve done all season.
I’ll lay the 13.5 points with the Packers. The Packers weakness is against strong, physical opponents on both sides of the ball. While I do respect the Jaguars ground game and what James Robinson has done this season, I simply don’t see the Jaguars defense containing Aaron Rodgers and their suddenly healthy offensive attack, which won’t allow for them to continuously pound the rock on offense.
Picks: Packers -13.5 (Deadbolt), Over 47.5 (Padlock)
Eagles (-3.5) @ Giants: O/U 44.5
ATS: Eagles: 3–5, Giants: 6–3
O/U: Eagles: 3–5, Giants: 3–5–1
It was quite the thriller in their first matchup. Evan Engram’s drop at the end was the difference between the Giants leading the NFC East as opposed to the Eagles. The Eagles have owned the series of late, but it’s still very tough to trust them, despite their roster getting healthier. The Giants have been competitive in just about every game this season, despite their awful record.
I’m taking the points in this one with the Giants. I expect another close one with a late driving determining the winner. The Giants may pull out the victory even, and I feel good knowing I have more than a field goal cushion with them.
Picks: Giants +3.5 (Deadbolt), Over 44.5 (Padlock)
Buccaneers (-6) @ Panthers: O/U 50.5
ATS: Buccaneers: 4–5, Panthers: 5–4
O/U: Buccaneers: 5–4, Panthers: 4–5
These two NFC South rivals faced off all the way back in Week 2, with the Buccaneers winning by 14. They enter this one off of back to back awful performances and are looking to straighten things out. The Panthers on the other hand come in off of an impressive performance against the reigning Super Bowl champs. They got Christian McCaffrey back last week, only to be without him again this week. What a tease that was.
I’m taking the Buccaneers laying 6 points. This appears to me like a good buy-low on the Bucs, sell-high on the Panthers opportunity. After how bad they looked the past two weeks, but especially last week, I expect Tom Brady to lead this team in a convincing victory.
Picks: Buccaneers -6 (Padlock), Over 50.5 (Padlock)
Texans @ Browns (-4): O/U 46
ATS: Texans: 1–7, Browns: 3–5
O/U: Texans: 6–1–1, Browns: 5–3
Despite their win last week against the Jaguars, the Texans did very little to make people feel that they are better than their record indicates. After their bye week, the Browns suddenly find themselves in a very crowded AFC Wild Card field.
I’m laying the 4 points with the Browns. If they want to keep pace for a wild card berth, this is simply a game they must have. And to feel good about themselves, it needs to be a convincing win. Nick Chubb looks ready to return, which will help them immensely on offense, both running the ball and establishing success with play action.
Picks: Browns -4 (Padlock), Over 46 (Deadbolt)
Football Team @ Lions (-4.5): O/U 46.5
ATS: Football Team: 3–4–1, Lions: 3–5
O/U: Football Team: 3–4–1, Lions: 5–3
The Football Team blew a great opportunity to stay attached at the top of the NFC East last week in a disappointing loss to the Giants. In that loss, Kyle Allen went down, which paved the way for Alex Smith to continue his miraculous and inspiring comeback to the football field. The Lions will be without star WR Kenny Golladay again in this one. They’re simply a different team when he’s on the field vs. when he’s out (ignoring Week 8 when he was hurt in the 2nd quarter, they’re 0–3 without him playing and 3–1 with him playing).
I’m confidently taking the Football Team getting 4.5 points in this one, which may be the final nail in the coffin for Matt Patricia and his Lions’ coaching tenure. Typically the Lions have been able to beat bad teams. However, with the injuries to key players on their team, their lack of support around Matthew Stafford, and a defense that has resorted back to old tendencies, I have no confidence being able to pick them laying 4.5 points.
Picks: Football Team +4.5 (Deadbolt), Under 46.5 (Deadbolt)
Bills @ Cardinals (-2.5): O/U 55.5
ATS: Bills: 4–5, Cardinals: 5–3
O/U: Bills: 7–2, Cardinals: 2–6
The Bills convincingly beat an NFC West team last week and will look to do the same this week. The Cardinals lost a tight one to an AFC East team last week, something they’re hoping to bounce back from. This is going to be a great battle between two strong teams.
I expect it to be a nail-biter, so give me the points and the Bills in a shootout. I have more confidence in the Bills defense getting an important stop or a turnover than I do the Cardinals defense.
Picks: Bills +2.5 (Padlock), Over 55.5 (Deadbolt)
Chargers @ Dolphins (-1.5): O/U 48.5
ATS: Chargers: 5–3, Dolphins: 6–2
O/U: Chargers: 5–3, Dolphins: 3–5
What an interesting AFC battle. The Chargers have found every way imaginable to lose games all season, despite having big leads in most of them. The Dolphins find themselves sitting squarely in the AFC Wild Card race at 5–3, led mostly by a very good defense.
I’m taking the Dolphins giving a point a half. It’s about time people (me included) recognize that this might actually just be a good team. They’ve won 4 straight and 5 out of 6. They’ve covered the spread in 6 of 8 games on the season. This team is good. It’s Tua Time.
Picks: Dolphins -1.5 (Deadbolt), Over 48.5 (Padlock)
Broncos @ Raiders (-3.5): O/U 50.5
ATS: Broncos: 5–3, Raiders: 5–3
O/U: Broncos: 5–3, Raiders: 7–1
A tough AFC West battle here. A loss here for the Broncos would end any shot they may think they have at playing meaningful December football. For the Raiders, they also badly need a win here as they sit in the middle of a very crowded AFC Wild Card race.
I’m going with the home team laying 3.5 points. I expect a heavy dose of Josh Jacobs and a safe passing game by the Raiders to control the pace of this game. Ultimately, the Raiders know they need this game badly — and they’re home. I’m going with the black and silver.
Picks: Raiders -3.5 (Deadbolt), Over 50.5 (Deadbolt)
Seahawks @ Rams (-2.5): O/U 54.5
ATS: Seahawks: 5–3, Rams: 4–4
O/U: Seahawks: 7–1, Rams: 2–6
Are the Seahawks good? I can’t figure them out. They’re 5–0 against teams currently under .500 but just 1–2 against teams currently with winning records. The Rams also only have 1 of their 5 wins against over .500 teams, so after this one, one of these teams will have doubled up that win total.
I’m taking the Seahawks getting 2.5 points. I’m a sucker for picking Russell Wilson and Pete Carroll, and I’m fully aware of it. This Seahawks defense cannot stop anyone, but I just find it hard to pick against those two guys when they are getting any amount of points.
Picks: Seahawks +2.5 (Padlock), Over 54.5 (Deadbolt)
49ers @ Saints (-9.5): O/U 49
ATS: 49ers: 4–4, Saints: 3–5
O/U: 49ers: 4–4, Saints: 7–1
The 49ers will not be as decimated in this one as they were last week, but they are still coming in with a lot of injuries. The Saints come into this contest fresh off of one of the most dominant performances I’ve ever seen last week on Sunday Night Football.
Give me the Saints laying 9.5. Michael Thomas is back. Drew Brees looks awesome again. This defense looked elite last week. And Alvin Kamara is Alvin Kamara. Oh, and they’re home. The only hesitation I’m having is to me this line seems too low even, and I never like feeling this confident about a pick. Regardless, geaux Saints.
Picks: Saints -9.5 (Fort Knox), Under 49 (Padlock)
Bengals @ Steelers (-7): O/U 45.5
ATS: Bengals: 6–2, Steelers: 6–2
O/U: Bengals: 5–3, Steelers: 4–3–1
On their bye week last week, the Bengals had to be thinking to themselves one of two things while watching the Steelers nearly get upset by the Cowboys. If they were being optimistic, they were likely learning what the Cowboys did that worked and envisioning how they could replicate it. If they were being pessimistic, they were angry because that game was likely a big wake-up call for the Steelers. Either way, the Steelers likely come into this one awake and ready to roll.
I’m taking the Steelers giving 7 points. It seems that elite teams typically have a slip up once in a season against lower-level teams. It’s very difficult to think that it’ll happen twice in back to back weeks. I like Joe Burrow and the Bengals. I think they have a bright future. I also think their defense is going to be torched by the weapons the Steelers have on offense, and the speed of the Steelers defense is going to demolish the Bengals shaky-at-best o-line.
Picks: Steelers -7 (Deadbolt), Over 45.5 (Padlock)
Ravens (-7) @ Patriots: O/U 43.5
ATS: Ravens: 4–3–1, Patriots: 3–5
O/U: Ravens: 3–5, Patriots: 4–4
The beatdown that the Colts put on the Titans on Thursday night makes the Ravens victory over them last week look that much more impressive. The Patriots needed the Jets to remember they were the Jets to avoid an embarrassing loss on Monday Night Football.
I’m laying the 7 points with the Ravens here. Their offense still needs work, especially through the air. But the Patriots defense made Joe Flacco have a flashback-to-2010 performance last week, which makes me confident this is a get-right game for Lamar Jackson and company. The Ravens defense gives me no such concern, even with Calais Campbell being out.
Picks: Ravens -7 (Deadbolt), Over 43.5 (Deadbolt)
Vikings (-3.5) @ Bears: O/U 43
ATS: Vikings: 5–3, Bears: 5–4
O/U: Vikings: 6–2, Bears: 3–6
We all know about Kirk Cousins and his lack of success in primetime games (7–16 straight up, 3–7–1 in his last 11 road primetime games). That being said, the Vikings are rolling into this NFC North battle with victories against their other 2 division rivals in the past 2 weeks, with Dalvin Cook looking absolutely unstoppable. On the other hand, the Bears are plummeting. After a hot 5–1 start, they’ve dropped 3 straight.
I’m going with the Kirk Cousins trend and am taking the 3.5 points with the Bears. My gut tells me go with the hot hand and go with the Vikings. I am confident the Vikings are better than their record states and that the Bears are worse than their record states. All of that being said, I like that the Bears are FINALLY switching from Matt Nagy calling their plays, and I think that’ll provide a small spark. I also think the Bears can contain Dalvin Cook. Mostly, I like buying low and selling high. This seems like one of those games. Let’s go Nick Foles!
