NFL Week 11 Locks
ATS Picks: 27–28
O/U Picks: 25–28–2
Steelers (-10) @ Jaguars: O/U 46
ATS: Steelers: 7–2, Jaguars: 4–5
O/U: Steelers: 5–3–1, Jaguars: 5–4
The Steelers come into this one looking to avoid the trap game effect and stay undefeated ahead of their Thanksgiving matchup against the Ravens. The Jaguars have their second opportunity in two weeks to try to hang with an elite team in the NFL, something they did successfully last week vs. the Packers.
It’s a lot of points on the road, but I’m taking the Steelers laying 10. This is such a good football team. Mike Tomlin convinced me when he said this was not going to be a team they overlooked. The Jaguars strength is their running game, which the Steelers hope to eliminate by jumping out to a big lead early. I simply don’t see the Jaguars putting up many points on this defense.
Picks: Steelers -10 (Deadbolt), Under 46 (Deadbolt)
Falcons @ Saints (-3.5): O/U 49
ATS: Falcons: 4–5, Saints: 4–5
O/U: Falcons: 5–4, Saints: 7–2
The Taysom Hill era begins… I jest. That being said, it will be exciting to see what Sean Payton does with Taysom Hill and this Saints offense without Drew Brees. It was quite the surprise when it was reported that Hill would be starting and not Jameis Winston, so let’s see what that looks like. On the other hand, the Falcons have to be excited to face the Drew Brees-less Saints twice in the next 3 weeks as they try to creep back into meaningful December football.
Give me the 3.5 points with the Falcons. Contrary to what is typically seen from these two teams, I think this will be a low-scoring, ball control type of game. The Falcons have been better than their record all season long, so I expect them to hang around. And just maybe blow another lead late. But they’re getting more than a field goal, so I’m taking it.
Picks: Falcons +3.5 (Padlock), Under 49 (Padlock)
Eagles @ Browns (-2.5): O/U 47
ATS: Eagles: 3–6, Browns: 3–6
O/U: Eagles: 3–6, Browns: 5–4
The Eagles enter this one after a disappointing loss to the Giants, where they left the door open to the rest of the NFC East if someone wanted to win that division. For the third time in their last 3 games, the Browns host a game where it looks like it’ll be cold and rainy.
I’m taking the Eagles getting 2.5 points. I think the Eagles bounce back and win this one, knowing how important of a game it is for them if they want to win the division. If they don’t win it, I can always fall back on the Browns losing it, which over the years they’ve shown capable of when things appear to be going well for them. In all seriousness, the Eagles have a solid run defense. The Browns offense is all set up by successfully running the football. I expect the Eagles to neutralize that and force Baker to make plays. With no Myles Garrett chasing down Carson Wentz on the other side of the ball, I like the Eagles in this one.
Picks: Eagles +2.5 (Deadbolt), Under 47 (Deadbolt)
Bengals @ Football Team (-1.5): O/U 47
ATS: Bengals: 6–3, Football Team: 3–4–2
O/U: Bengals: 6–3, Football Team: 3–5–1
The Bengals play a team more on their level this week after getting demolished by the Steelers last week. The Football Team look to carry over the momentum from a crazy comeback they made last week, but hope the end result is different for them.
I’m taking the Football Team giving 1.5 points. This is a strong defensive team against the pass. The Bengals throw a lot and are without Joe Mixon, again. Alex Smith and this offense found something that worked last week with the hurry up. I expect them to come in and win this one and get right back into the race for the NFC East division winner.
Picks: Football Team -1.5 (Padlock), Over 47 (Padlock)
Titans @ Ravens (-6.5): O/U 50.5
ATS: Titans: 3–6, Ravens: 4–4–1
O/U: Titans: 6–2–1, Ravens: 3–6
This is the spread of the week that I can’t figure out. The Titans have looked elite at times this season, but come in off of an awful performance last Thursday night against the Colts. The Ravens come into this one off of an awful performance of their own on Sunday night against the Patriots. One of these two AFC teams will leave this week 7–3 and feeling pretty good about their playoff chances. The other will be 6–4 and in a bit of a panic.
I’m taking the Titans getting 6.5 points. I don’t understand why they’re getting that many points, but I’ll gladly take them. The Ravens got destroyed on the ground by the Patriots. The Titans have Derrick Henry. The Ravens have not been able to throw the ball really all year long. There’s no way to feel confident that they can beat a quality opponent by more than a touchdown.
Picks: Titans +6.5 (Deadbolt), Over 50.5 (Padlock)
Patriots (-2) @ Texans: O/U 48.5
ATS: Patriots: 4–5, Texans: 2–7
O/U: Patriots: 4–5, Texans: 6–2–1
The Patriots have won two straight as they desperately try to keep their playoff hopes alive. The Texans come into this one looking for their first win of the season against someone other than the Jaguars.
I’m rolling with the Texans getting 2 points. The Patriots looked so good last week that I expect their perceived value to be at its absolute highest right now. I still don’t think they are a good football team. To be fair, the Texans have done nothing to show that they’re a good football team either. But Deshaun Watson gives this team a chance every week, so I’m taking the home underdog here.
Picks: Texans +2 (Padlock), Over 48.5 (Padlock)
Lions (-2) @ Panthers: O/U 46.5
ATS: Lions: 3–5–1, Panthers: 5–5
O/U: Lions: 6–3, Panthers: 4–6
Injuries, injuries, injuries. The Lions come into this one without 3 of their most important offensive skill players (Golladay, Swift, Amendola) along with a few starters on the offensive and defensive lines. The Panthers have injury concerns of their own. This entire pick/analysis will change if Teddy Bridgewater is inactive, but I’m operating under the belief that he will suit up. Christian McCaffrey, on the other hand, will miss another game for this feisty Panthers team.
I’m taking the Panthers getting 2 points. Simply put, I just don’t have a clue how the Lions score the football. Matthew Stafford can only do so much. The Panthers have competed hard all year long so there’s no reason to think this week will be any different. The Lions don’t deserve to be road favorites over anyone with the way they’ve blown leads all season long.
Picks: Panthers +2 (Padlock), Under 46.5 (Padlock)
Dolphins (-3.5) @ Broncos: O/U 46
ATS: Dolphins: 7–2, Broncos: 5–4
O/U: Dolphins: 4–5, Broncos: 5–4
The Dolphins enter this one on a 5-game winning streak as they have been one of the positive surprises on the season. The Broncos have lost two straight, and have to be questioning whether or not Drew Lock is their QB of the future.
In my most confident pick of the week, I’m taking the Dolphins giving 3.5 points here. I believe in this football team. They get production from all three phases. Tua has played smart, good football in his brief career. I expect them to keep it rolling as they travel to Mile High.
Picks: Dolphins -3.5 (Fort Knox), Over 46 (Padlock)
Jets @ Chargers (-9.5): O/U 46.5
ATS: Jets: 2–7, Chargers: 5–4
O/U: Jets: 4–5, Chargers: 6–3
The Jets are running out of chances to avoid the dreaded winless season. This is by far their best shot when looking ahead at their future opponents, as they don’t play a team with fewer than 6 wins until Week 17 against the Patriots. The Chargers have played much better all season than their record indicates, but they’ve found every way possible to lose games.
It goes against my gut, but I’m taking the Chargers giving 9.5 points. It’s so hard to pick the Jets, against anyone, getting however many points. They’re a bad football team in every way. The Chargers have had big leads in many games this season. If they get a big lead here, I don’t see a way the Jets make it close.
Picks: Chargers -9.5 (Padlock), Over 46.5 (Padlock)
Packers @ Colts (-1.5): O/U 51.5
ATS: Packers: 6–3, Colts: 5–4
O/U: Packers: 6–3, Colts: 5–4
The Packers didn’t look good last week, but they won. At 7–2, there’s still a lot of questions surrounding this team about whether or not they can beat good, physical football teams. The Colts are a good, physical football team. They make their living up front on both sides of the ball.
I’m taking the Colts giving a point and a half. Until they can prove that they can beat one of these types of teams, I can’t pick the Packers. They get bullied. They’re soft. Maybe they’ll make me eat my words, but they’ve shown me nothing over the past two seasons to make me think that is true. The Colts offensive line and defensive line should both have their way in this one.
Picks: Colts -1.5 (Fort Knox), Over 51.5 (Deadbolt)
Cowboys @ Vikings (-7): O/U 48
ATS: Cowboys: 1–8, Vikings: 6–3
O/U: Cowboys: 4–5, Vikings: 6–3
After a 1–5 start to their season, the Vikings play a 2-win team to try to get back to .500 on the season. And they’ve looked very good of late. Dalvin Cook has been elite. Kirk Cousins hasn’t made mistake. And this defense is back to looking very good. The Cowboys get Andy Dalton back this week, so at least they’ll have someone with experience leading their offense.
I’m taking the Vikings giving 7 points. I, like many others, thought the Vikings were one of the better teams coming into the season. I, like many others, gave up on them after their rough start. Now I’m back to my original belief. I expect them to control this game with their rushing attack from start to finish.
Picks: Vikings -7 (Deadbolt), Over 48.5 (Padlock)
Chiefs (-8) @ Raiders: O/U 57
ATS: Chiefs: 6–3, Raiders: 6–3
O/U: Chiefs: 4–5, Raiders: 7–2
Covid — oh how you complicate everything. It looks like the Raiders will have most of their regulars playing this week despite a covid scare earlier in the week. The Chiefs hope to avenge their only loss of the season in this primetime AFC West battle.
The Raiders are getting enough points here for me to take them. Andy Reid’s success off of bye weeks is well-known, and I firmly expect him, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs to come out ready to go against this team. But the Raiders beat this team back in Week 5, and looked good doing so. The Raiders style of play offensively can control the pace of the game. If their defense does half the job it did in their first game against Mahomes, this will be a close one.
Picks: Raiders +8 (Padlock), Over 57 (Padlock)
Rams @ Buccaneers (-4): O/U 48
ATS: Rams: 5–4, Buccaneers: 5–5
O/U: Rams: 2–7, Buccaneers: 6–4
What a thriller to end the week. The Rams defense has been clicking all season long, but get a real test against the Buccaneers who, entering this week, have the most points scored of any team.
I’m taking the Rams getting 4 points. I expect a close game, so I like having more than a field goal cushion. Aaron Donald and that Rams defensive front should pressure Tom Brady all game long. The Rams are starting to make some noise for themselves.
