NFL Week 12 Locks
ATS Picks: 35–34
O/U Picks: 35–32–2
Giants (-6) @ Bengals: O/U 44
ATS: Giants: 7–3, Bengals: 6–4
O/U: Giants: 3–6–1, Bengals: 6–4
Every game means something when an NFC East team is involved, so here’s an important late November battle between teams with a combined 5 wins. The Giants are trying to extend their modest winning streak to 3 games, while the Bengals are playing their first game since losing Joe Burrow to injury.
I’m taking the 6 points the Bengals are getting. The Giants have played close, low-scoring games all season long, so I am expecting another one of those. 6 points is a lot in a low scoring game, so I feel better having that in my back pocket.
Picks: Bengals +6 (Padlock), Under 44 (Deadbolt)
Dolphins (-6.5) @ Jets: O/U 44
ATS: Dolphins: 7–3, Jets: 3–7
O/U: Dolphins: 4–6, Jets: 5–5
The Dolphins were humbled last week in a bad loss to the Broncos where Tua was pulled late in favor of Fitzmagic. Tua is unlikely to play in this one as well due to injury. The Jets are inching closer and closer to the dreaded winless season. They have covered the past two weeks though, losing both games by a combined 9 points.
I’m taking the Dolphins laying 6.5 points. I expect a bounceback performance by them where their defense takes advantage of some Jets offensive miscues. With Fitz at QB this offense should put up points against the Jets who have given up 30+ points in each of their last 3 games. Their first matchup ended in a 24–0 shutout victory for the Dolphins. I have no reason to expect much different.
Picks: Dolphins -6.5 (Deadbolt), Under 44 (Deadbolt)
Browns (-7) @ Jaguars: O/U 49.5
ATS: Browns: 4–6, Jaguars: 4–6
O/U: Browns: 5–5, Jaguars: 5–5
The Browns have established their winning formula — hand the ball off to Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt often. A win here would do wonders for them in securing their first playoff berth since 2002. A win for the Jaguars on the other hand would likely do more harm than good for them.
I’m taking the Jaguars getting 7 points. 7 points is a lot, especially on the road. The Browns are a good football team, but their formula leads to close, low-scoring games. The Jaguars can also run the football well, so I’ll take the points.
Picks: Jaguars +7 (Padlock), Under 49.5 (Padlock)
Chargers @ Bills (-4.5): O/U 53
ATS: Chargers: 5–5, Bills: 5–5
O/U: Chargers: 7–3, Bills: 8–2
The Bills have had two weeks to relive the Hail Murray that cost them a huge road win. 1 p.m. on Sunday can’t get here quickly enough for this team. The Chargers got their third win of the year last week, as Justin Herbert continued his stellar rookie season.
I’m taking the Bills laying 4.5 points. This is one of the better teams in the league against a team that has shown that they can compete, but consistently has found ways to lose games. And the Bills are home. I’m a little confused why the line is so low, which often backfires for me, but I’m going for it with confidence here.
Picks: Bills -4.5 (Deadbolt), Over 53 (Deadbolt)
Raiders (-3) @ Falcons: O/U 54
ATS: Raiders: 7–3, Falcons: 4–6
O/U: Raiders: 8–2, Falcons: 5–5
The Raiders proved a ton in a loss last week on national TV to the defending champs. This is a quality football team. On the other hand, the Falcons lost all of the momentum that they had built for themselves in an embarrassing loss to the Drew Brees-less Saints last week.
I’ll lay the field goal with the Raiders in this one. I kept going back on forth on it because I genuinely do believe the Falcons are a decent football team. But not having Todd Gurley and likely Julio Jones tipped the scales for me. The Raiders should contain their offense and put up enough points to cover.
Picks: Raiders -3 (Deadbolt), Under 54 (Padlock)
Cardinals (-2) @ Patriots: O/U 49
ATS: Cardinals: 5–5, Patriots: 4–6
O/U: Cardinals: 3–7, Patriots: 4–6
The Cardinals come into this one after a disappointing loss last week where they seemingly got “big-brothered” by the Seahawks. The Patriots came back to life last week in a loss to the Texans, all but ending slim playoff hopes that they out prior to the game.
Give the Cardinals lay 2 points. This is another one where I am confused by the line being so low. That confusion is the only reason for me hesitating here. I would’ve taken the Cardinals giving 10 points here. I expect them to bounce back in a big way against a bad football team.
Picks: Cardinals -2 (Fort Knox), Over 49 (Deadbolt)
Titans @ Colts (-3): O/U 51.5
ATS: Titans: 4–6, Colts: 6–4
O/U: Titans: 7–2–1, Colts: 6–4
It’s their second matchup in three weeks. The winner gets the sole lead in the AFC South. The loser is left in a crowded AFC wild card race. And of course, to ruin all of those positive storylines, Covid will play a role in this one, knocking out numerous important Colts players. Still, this should be a fun game to watch.
I’m taking the points with the Titans in this one. I think the loss of DeForest Buckner is a significant one. The Colts were clearly the better team in their first game, so I expect the Titans to have a little more to prove in this one. In what I expect to be a low-scoring, division battle, I want the points on my side.
Picks: Titans +3 (Padlock), Under 51.5 (Deadbolt)
Panthers @ Vikings (-3.5): O/U 51
ATS: Panthers: 6–5, Vikings: 6–4
O/U: Panthers: 4–7, Vikings: 7–3
Teddy Bridgewater returns in this one for a Panthers team that has competed all season long. The Vikings loss to the Cowboys last week was a devastating one for their rekindled playoff hopes.
I’m going with the Panthers getting 3.5 points here. I expect a close, back and forth type of game between these two teams who in their minds are playing for their playoff lives, although realistically they’re both already eliminated. Getting more than a field goal makes me feel decent about this pick.
Picks: Panthers +3.5 (Padlock), Over 51 (Padlock)
Saints (-15) @ Broncos: O/U 36
ATS: Saints: 5–5, Broncos: 6–4
O/U: Saints: 7–3, Broncos: 5–5
The Saints are without their starting QB once again in this one, but they likely won’t be getting much sympathy from anyone. The Broncos enter this one without ANY of their rostered QBs due to Covid, and will be starting practice squad WR Kendall Hinton behind center today. Wow.
I’m taking the Saints laying a billion (15) in this one. I have no idea what to expect, but when arguably the most important position in all of sports is compromised the way it is for the Broncos in this one, I simply don’t know how they’re going to score points. Covid makes me sad.
Picks: Saints -15 (Deadbolt), Over 36 (Padlock)
49ers @ Rams (-6.5): O/U 44.5
ATS: 49ers: 4–6, Rams: 6–4
O/U: 49ers: 5–5, Rams: 3–7
The 49ers are seemingly getting healthier, so I expect them to finish the season playing decent football. Unfortunately for them, they travel to face the Rams this week, who enter this one fresh off of back to back very impressive victories.
I’m taking the Rams giving 6.5 points. The Rams defense is simply playing such good football that it’s tough for me to envision the 49ers putting up enough points to compete in this one. The 49ers did win the first battle between these two teams last month, but I don’t expect this one to be all that close.
Picks: Rams -6.5 (Deadbolt), Under 44.5 (Padlock)
Chiefs (-3.5) @ Buccaneers: O/U 56
ATS: Chiefs: 6–4, Buccaneers: 5–6
O/U: Chiefs: 5–5, Buccaneers: 7–4
Patrick Mahomes vs. Tom Brady — possibly for the last time. The Chiefs are playoff ready. The Buccaneers are anything but. That being said, it’s a great opportunity for the Buccaneers to silence the doubters as they try to get their immensely talented roster functioning in cohesion.
I’m confidently taking the Chiefs giving 3.5 points. The Buccaneers have been wildly inconsistent this season. So far on the season, they’ve come back after each loss with a convincing victory. I expect that streak to end here. The Chiefs offense is unstoppable. Their defense has something to prove still, but 3.5 is not a lot of points for a team that can move the ball up and down the field at will against anyone.
Picks: Chiefs -3.5 (Deadbolt), Under 56 (Padlock)
Bears @ Packers (-9.5): O/U 44
ATS: Bears: 5–5, Packers: 6–4
O/U: Bears: 3–7, Packers: 7–3
One of the best rivalries in all of sports does not have much intrigue this Sunday night. The Bears haven’t scored more than 23 points since September. The Packers have scored more than 23 points in all but two games this season. Mitchell Trubisky is back for the Bears though…
Give me the Packers laying 9.5 points. To be optimistic about such an awful Sunday night game, I’m pretty excited about being able to go to sleep at halftime and not be worried about missing any excitement. The Bears are not good and the Packers are coming in off of a loss. I expect this one to get out of hand early.
Picks: Packers -9.5 (Deadbolt), Under 44 (Deadbolt)
Seahawks (-5.5) @ Eagles: O/U 49
ATS: Seahawks: 6–4, Eagles: 3–7
O/U: Seahawks: 7–3, Eagles: 3–7
The Seahawks seemingly weekly primetime game comes on Monday this week as they travel to Philadelphia, where “fly Eagles fly” is looking more and more like “die Eagles die”. In a primetime spot, there’s a lot of pressure on Carson Wentz to perform well with the mounting voices calling for him to be benched for Jalen Hurts. Still, a win here for the Eagles puts them right back into first place in the NFC East.
I’m taking the Seahawks laying 5.5. I think they figured their defense out these past two weeks. Even if they haven’t, the Eagles offense likely won’t be able to take advantage. 5.5 points on the road is a decent amount, but the Eagles have struggled to cover all season, and I expect that to continue.
