NFL Week 14 Locks
ATS Picks: 52–48
O/U Picks: 49–48–3
Chiefs (-7) @ Dolphins: O/U 50.5
ATS: Chiefs: 6–6, Dolphins: 9–3
O/U: Chiefs: 5–7, Dolphins: 4–8
Crucial game for both of these AFC teams. The Chiefs are vying for that crucial 1st seed in the AFC which would grant them a bye week in the 1st round of the playoffs. Winning a conference game like this one would go a long way in helping accomplish that. On the other hand, not only do the Dolphins need a win to stay in the hunt for the division, but also to stay in a good spot in the tight wild card race.
I’m taking the Dolphins getting 7 points. The Chiefs have won 7 straight, but their last 4 wins are by a combined 15 points. Their largest win in that stretch is last week by 6 against a lesser Broncos team at home. I’ve been saying all season I think the Chiefs are keeping their offense purposely in check during the regular season, and against a potential playoff opponent here, I don’t expect Andy Reid to open it up. Give me the points.
Picks: Dolphins +7 (Padlock), Under 50.5 (Deadbolt)
Titans (-7.5) @ Jaguars: O/U 52.5
ATS: Titans: 5–7, Jaguars: 6–6
O/U: Titans: 9–2–1, Jaguars: 6–6
These two teams met back in Week 2 with the Titans narrowly escaping an enormous upset with a 33–30 victory. In that matchup, James Robinson really made a name for himself, setting up what has been quite the impressive season by him. The Titans come into this one hoping to erase last week’s performance from their brain, while the Jaguars enter off of an overtime loss where they nearly blew any shot at getting the 1st pick.
Give me the 7.5 points with the Jaguars. This team has shown fight these last two weeks and I expect that to continue on the home against a division rival. I think Robinson has another good game running the football. I don’t expect either team to put up much of a fight defensively, so whether it’s a close game or one that ends in a backdoor cover late, I feel good getting 7.5 points.
Picks: Jaguars +7.5 (Deadbolt), Over 52.5 (Deadbolt)
Vikings @ Buccaneers (-6.5): O/U 53
ATS: Vikings: 6–6, Buccaneers: 6–6
O/U: Vikings: 8–4, Buccaneers: 7–5
Following their 1–5 start to the season, the Vikings have now won 5 of their last 6 and find themselves currently as a playoff team in the NFC. That being said, their last 3 games have all been fairly disappointing efforts. They lost a pitiful Cowboys team. They needed a miraculous comeback to beat the Panthers by 1. And they needed overtime to beat a 1-win Jaguars team. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers come out of their bye week on a 2-game losing streak hoping that their own problems have been fixed.
I’m laying the 6.5 points with the Buccaneers here. I expect this team to come out of their bye week with a lot of cohesion and intensity. I expect Antonio Brown to have a big day. I expect this defense to get after Kirk Cousins. Tom Brady can’t possible continue to look this bad, can he?
Picks: Buccaneers -6.5 (Deadbolt), Under 53 (Padlock)
Cardinals (-2.5) @ Giants: O/U 45.5
ATS: Cardinals: 5–7, Giants: 8–4
O/U: Cardinals: 4–8, Giants: 3–8–1
The Cardinals began the year 5–2, looked explosive, and seemed to be a lock for the playoffs. Since then, they’ve lost 4 of their last 5 (would’ve been 5 straight if not for the Hail Murray game), and find themselves on the outside of the postseason looking in. What’s changed? — the offense looks lifeless with Kyler Murray a little banged up and running less and less. On the other hand, the Giants began the season 1–7 and were competing more for 1st pick than the playoffs. Since then, they’ve won 4 straight and find themselves currently in position to host a playoff game. What’s changed? — quite frankly, not much. This team competed hard despite their record the first 8 weeks. They just lost nailbiters. If I had to pick one thing, it would be Daniel Jones stopped turning the ball over. But this team has been a quality team all season long.
I’m taking the Cardinals laying 2.5. This goes completely against what my eyes have seen this past month or so. The Giants are the home team and are playing much better football. But I’m rolling with my buy-low, sell-high philosophy here.
Picks: Cardinals -2.5 (Padlock), Over 45.5 (Padlock)
Texans (-1.5) @ Bears: O/U 46
ATS: Texans: 4–8, Bears: 5–7
O/U: Texans: 7–4–1, Bears: 5–7
These two teams stink. Last week was a great example of that. The Texans had a golden opportunity for a very impressive victory over the Colts, but blew it with a fumbled snap at the end. The Bears had an even better opportunity to snap their losing streak as they were up 10 against a bad Lions team late in the 4th quarter. They somehow found a way to blow that one. Thank god for the excitement that Deshaun Watson brings every week, otherwise this game would not be watchable.
I’m taking the Texans laying a point and a half. Both of these teams are so bad that I just have to take Watson over Trubisky. If you look at it from that perspective, this pick is the easiest one of the week.
Picks: Texans -1.5 (Fort Knox), Under 46 (Deadbolt)
Broncos @ Panthers (-3.5): O/U 45.5
ATS: Broncos: 7–5, Panthers: 7–5
O/U: Broncos: 5–7, Panthers: 5–7
The Broncos looked fairly impressive, at least defensively, last week against the Chiefs. The Panthers keep toying with fantasy owners everywhere with the status of their superstar Christian McCaffrey, who currently looks unlikely to play.
I’m taking the Broncos getting 3.5 points. I like this defense to keep this game close throughout. There has been a lot of drama this week with their rookie WR Jerry Jeudy. I expect him to have a big game here. I also expect the Broncos running game to control the pace of this game with the expectation that CMC will be once again out.
Picks: Broncos +3.5 (Padlock), Over 45.5 (Padlock)
Cowboys (-3) @ Bengals: O/U 43
ATS: Cowboys: 2–9, Bengals: 7–5
O/U: Cowboys: 6–5, Bengals: 6–6
What a gross game. The Cowboys proved once again on national television that they can’t stop anyone on the ground. The Bengals may have something to say about that though, considering this offense has put up 43 points total in the last 4 weeks.
I’m taking the Bengals getting 3 points simply because I would feel sick laying 3 points with the Cowboys against anyone right now, let alone on the road.
Picks: Bengals +3 (Deadbolt), Over 43 (Deadbolt)
Jets @ Seahawks (-13.5): O/U 47
ATS: Jets: 4–8, Seahawks: 6–6
O/U: Jets: 5–7, Seahawks: 7–5
The Jets fired Gregg Williams this week following that inexplicable playcall that cost them their first win of the season last week. It’ll be interesting to see if that has a positive impact on this team the rest of the season. The Seahawks were handled last week, particularly offensively, by the other team that calls Metlife Stadium home. They have been very up and down all season long, so are hoping to start the last quarter of the season on an upswing.
It’s a lot of points, but I’m laying 13.5 with the Seahawks here. I simply expect this offense to be pissed off after last week and to score a ton of points. That combined with not expecting the Jets offense to do much at all, and I feel good that this game finishes in a very convincing victory by the home team.
Picks: Seahawks -13.5 (Deadbolt), Under 47 (Deadbolt)
Colts (-3) @ Raiders: O/U 51.5
ATS: Colts: 7–5, Raiders: 7–5
O/U: Colts: 7–5, Raiders: 9–3
This is a strong candidate for game of the week this week. Currently, the Colts and the Raiders are the 7th and 8th seeds, respectively, in the AFC. In a year where 7 teams make the playoffs, I don’t to elaborate on how crucial this game is for both teams. Both of these teams enter this one off of games where they were extremely fortunate to come away with wins.
I’m laying the field goal with the Colts. Other than the game without DeForest Buckner, this team has been consistently good all season. The Raiders have had back to back disappointing games against much lesser competition. Tough game to pick though.
Picks: Colts -3 (Padlock), Over 51.5 (Padlock)
Packers (-9) @ Lions: O/U 54.5
ATS: Packers: 8–4, Lions: 4–7–1
O/U: Packers: 8–4, Lions: 8–4
The Packers doubled up the Lions back in Week 2 in a 42–21 victory. I expect them to put up points at will again against this putrid Lions defense. The Lions somehow still have playoff life, but every game from here on out is essentially a must-win for them. The offense is still missing Kenny Golladay, but should be getting D’Andre Swift back this week, which will help.
I’m taking the Lions getting 9 points here. I don’t think either defense will stop the opposing offense all game. It may be a blowout Packers victory, but you can still get blown out and lose by less than 9 points. Give me the Honolulu Blue.
Picks: Lions +9 (Padlock), Over 54.5 (Deadbolt)
Saints (-8) @ Eagles: O/U 43
ATS: Saints: 7–5, Eagles: 4–8
O/U: Saints: 7–5, Eagles: 3–9
The Saints have not lost since September. While that sentence is impressive in its own right, it becomes even more impressive when considering that this team was without Michael Thomas for a substantial period of time, and is still without Drew Brees for now the 4th straight game. The Eagles on the other hand have lost 4 straight and finally made the change at QB that their fanbase has been calling for since drafting Jalen Hurts in the 2nd round in this past draft. He definitely provided a bit of a spark when he entered last week, so it’ll be interesting to see how he fares after a full week of practice as the starter.
I’m laying the 8 points with the Saints. Their defense is simply that good. I expect them to give Jalen Hurts a ton of looks he has never seen and won’t be prepared for. I think it will be a low scoring game, which makes it tough to lay the 8 points. But I’m still doing it. 24–15 seems about right.
Picks: Saints -8 (Deadbolt), Under 43 (Padlock)
Football Team @ 49ers (-3): O/U 43.5
ATS: Football Team: 6–4–2, 49ers: 5–7
O/U: Football Team: 4–7–1, 49ers: 6–6
What a sneaky important game here for both of these 5–7 teams. Over the last 3 weeks, the Football Team has allowed a total of 42 points. This defense is showing that it is not to be taken lightly. The 49ers need a win to hang onto their extremely slim hopes at a playoff spot.
This is the line of the week that confuses me the most. To me, this should be a pick ’em game with the way that Washington has been playing of late. Regardless, I’m taking the Football Team getting a field goal. I expect a very low scoring, competitive game, so getting the field goal is a no brainer to me.
Picks: Football Team +3 (Deadbolt), Under 43.5 (Deadbolt)
Falcons (-2) @ Chargers: O/U 49
ATS: Falcons: 5–7, Chargers: 5–7
O/U: Falcons: 5–7, Chargers: 7–5
The question here is not so much who is going to win the game, but who is going to lose it, and how creative will they get. Both of these teams have found every way imaginable to lose games this season. Both offenses have shown at times to be explosive. But both defenses have struggled mightily.
I’m taking the Chargers here getting 2 points. I like Justin Herbert. Julio Jones is out. The Chargers just lost 45–0, so this line likely felt the impact of that. At the end of the day, in a battle of two teams who find creative ways of losing, there’s a good chance it’s a game winning field goal changing the leader in the closing seconds. So give me the points.
Picks: Chargers +2 (Padlock), Over 49 (Padlock)
Steelers @ Bills (-1.5): O/U 48
ATS: Steelers: 8–4, Bills: 7–5
O/U: Steelers: 5–6–1, Bills: 9–3
What a thriller for a Sunday night game. The Steelers just lost their first game of the season last week. Bud Dupree is not coming back this season. This defense did fine last week, but the Bills are a much better offense than they faced last week. The Bills are a Deandre Hopkins hail mary catch away from being on a 6 game winning streak. A win here would solidify them as one of the teams to fear entering the postseason.
I’m taking the Bills laying a point and a half here. I believe in Josh Allen. I still think he’ll make a truly boneheaded play here and there, but I believe in him to make more good plays than bad ones at this point. He has this offense clicking, and although I expect more from the Steelers offense now with James Conner returning, I think this is the game that truly puts Josh Allen on the map.
