NFL Week 15 Locks
ATS Picks: 63–53
O/U Picks: 58–55–3
Jaguars @ Ravens (-13): O/U 48
ATS: Jaguars: 6–7, Ravens: 7–5–1
O/U: Jaguars: 6–7, Ravens: 6–7
To the delight of Jets fans everywhere, Minshew and his mustache have returned. He’ll have a tough test however against the suddenly soaring Ravens, who come into this one off of that absolute thriller of a win on Monday night against the Browns.
I like the Jaguars in this one getting 13 points. The Ravens are clearly the better team. They’re playing good football these past two weeks. I expect them to run the ball all over the Jaguars defense. But I still don’t think the passing game of the Ravens this year gives them the ability to separate from opposing teams like they did last year. And 13 points is a lot. Especially for a Jaguars team that looked a little energized once Minshew came in last week. I have faith the ‘stache will keep it respectable.
Picks: Jaguars +13 (Padlock), Over 48 (Deadbolt)
Seahawks (-6.5) @ Football Team: O/U 43.5
ATS: Seahawks: 7–6, Football Team: 7–4–2
O/U: Seahawks: 7–6, Football Team: 4–8–1
Great late-season NFC battle here. The Seahawks need a win desperately to stay attached to the Rams atop the NFC West. The Football Team needs a win as they try to secure a home playoff game for themselves as they currently hold a 1-game lead over the Giants in the NFC East. If the Football Team is to continue its 4-game winning streak, it’ll do it with Dwayne Haskins leading them as Alex Smith is out in this one.
I’m going with the Seahawks laying 6.5 points. The Alex Smith news made this decision easier for me. I love Washington’s defense. I think it’ll give the Seahawks similar problems to what they faced during their loss to the Giants two weeks ago. But I don’t trust Haskins to get it done on offense. I expect some turnovers and bad offensive drives by Washington to allow Russell Wilson enough opportunities to score, and I believe he’ll do so.
Picks: Seahawks -6.5 (Padlock), Over 43.5 (Padlock)
Buccaneers (-6) @ Falcons: O/U 50.5
ATS: Buccaneers: 7–6, Falcons: 5–8
O/U: Buccaneers: 7–6, Falcons: 5–8
The Buccaneers got a win last week against the Vikings. However they were largely aided by Dan Bailey kicking like he was Brucie from The Longest Yard. Still, a win is a win, and it gets them back on track as they look to finish the regular season with some momentum. They face off against the Falcons who are coming off a tough loss to the Chargers where Matt Ryan threw three 2nd half interceptions.
I’ll lay the 6 points with the Buccaneers here. I simply have that feeling that there’s going to be a week where all of the weapons on this offense finally mesh and look unstoppable. It may very well be this week. No Julio Jones on the other side for the Falcons also helps. I don’t have that much confidence in the Falcons offense right now.
Picks: Buccaneers -6 (Deadbolt), Under 50.5 (Deadbolt)
Texans @ Colts (-7.5): O/U 51.5
ATS: Texans: 4–9, Colts: 8–5
O/U: Texans: 7–5–1, Colts: 8–5
These AFC South rivals square off for the 2nd time in the past 3 weeks. In their first matchup, it was a botched snap at the end that cost the Texans the upset. Last week was polar opposites for these teams. The Texans had an incredibly disappointing loss to the Bears, and the Colts had a very solid win over the Raiders.
I’m going with the Colts laying 7.5 points here. The Texans seemed to pack it in last week. That was a brutal loss. The Colts need to keep winning to stay attached to the Titans atop the division. Plus, the Colts are a significantly better all-around football team. It’s a lot of points for a division game that I expect to be low scoring, but I’m envisioning something in the ballpark of 27–17 here. That covers.
Picks: Colts -7.5 (Deadbolt), Under 51.5 (Deadbolt)
Lions @ Titans (-9): O/U 53
ATS: Lions: 5–7–1, Titans: 6–7
O/U: Lions: 7–5–1, Titans: 9–3–1
The Lions were physically beaten up last week against the Packers in a game where they actually showed a lot of heart and fight. They left the game with Matthew Stafford barely able to breathe or stand up straight. On top of that, their likely pro bowl center Frank Ragnow fractured his throat. Yes, that’s apparently actually a thing. The Titans on the other hand steamrolled one bad team last week in the Jaguars and will look to do the same here.
I’m laying the 9 points with the Titans. Matthew Stafford is playing, which is simply crazy to me. But it makes me respect the man even more than I already did. Despite that, the Lions have absolutely no run defense, and Derrick Henry has a realistic shot at 2,000 yards on the season. I fully expect him to go for 200+ yards in this one in a game completely dominated by the home team.
Picks: Titans -9 (Fort Knox), Over 53 (Deadbolt)
Patriots @ Dolphins (-1): O/U 41.5
ATS: Patriots: 6–7, Dolphins: 10–3
O/U: Patriots: 4–9, Dolphins: 5–8
AFC East battle here that lost a bit of its luster with the Patriots losing badly last Thursday night. Cam Newton frankly looks really bad at throwing the football. There’s no other way to put it. The Dolphins need a win here as they try to make the playoffs. Defensively, this team is solid. Offensively, there’s a lot of question marks with who is even going to play. On top of that, there’s Bill Belichick’s incredibly impressive track record against rookie QBs.
In a coin flip of a game, I’m going with the Dolphins laying a point. I’m aware Belichick dominates rookie QBs. And I fully expect Tua to have some trouble in this one. I’m just expecting him to continue to not turn the ball over, which he has done well so far in his young career. I don’t see a world where the Patriots offense scores 20 points in this one if he doesn’t turn it over.
Picks: Dolphins -1 (Padlock), Under 41.5 (Deadbolt)
49ers (-3.5) @ Cowboys: O/U 45.5
ATS: 49ers: 5–8, Cowboys: 3–10
O/U: 49ers: 6–7, Cowboys: 7–6
The 49ers lost last week to the Football team despite nearly doubling them up in total yards. How? They lost the turnover battle 3–1. They’ll look to hang onto the ball against a Cowboys team coming off of their most convincing win of the season last week.
I’m laying the 3.5 points with the 49ers here. This matchup seems to play right into their hands. They can run the ball decently well, and the Cowboys can’t stop the run. The fact that a bad 49ers team coming off of a loss is somehow a 3.5 point favorite on the road in Dallas makes no sense to me, but I think that’s the oddsmakers way of hoping people take Dallas here.
Picks: 49ers -3.5 (Deadbolt), Over 45.5 (Padlock)
Bears @ Vikings (-3): O/U 46.5
ATS: Bears: 6–7, Vikings: 6–7
O/U: Bears: 5–8, Vikings: 8–5
NFC North battle that sneakily is very important for the playoff race. Both of these teams are sitting at 6–7, just a game back from the 7th place Cardinals. The Bears come into this one off of a dominating performance last week where they put up 30+ points for the 2nd straight week — something that didn’t look possible when these two teams first met back in Week 10. The Vikings come off of a tough loss last week where their kicker missed all 4 kicks he attempted.
I’m going with the Vikings laying a field goal here. This is a classic buy low, sell high opportunity to me. These two teams typically play low scoring, gritty games. I do like the Bears defense to contain Dalvin Cook, but ultimately I think the Vikings have more weapons on offense to get it done in the end.
Picks: Vikings -3 (Deadbolt), Under 46.5 (Deadbolt)
Jets @ Rams (-17.5): O/U 43.5
ATS: Jets: 4–9, Rams: 8–5
O/U: Jets: 5–8, Rams: 4–9
The Jets couldn’t get a single TD last week against the Seahawks, and now they travel to Los Angeles to face an even better NFC West defense. The Rams didn’t allow a single TD last week, and now face an equally bad AFC East offense.
It’s a ton of points, but I’ll lay the 17.5 with the Rams here. Quite frankly, I just don’t see the Jets getting to double digits here. I expect Aaron Donald to try to put up a huge statline as he tries to get the Defensive Player of the Year award. It’s almost over Jets fans.
Picks: Rams -17.5 (Padlock), Under 43.5 (Deadbolt)
Eagles @ Cardinals (-6): O/U 49
ATS: Eagles: 5–8, Cardinals: 6–7
O/U: Eagles: 5–8, Cardinals: 4–9
The Eagles shocked the world last week by upsetting the Saints. Jalen Hurts clearly provided a spark to this formerly lifeless offense, that they hope carries into this game. The Cardinals will look for their 2nd straight victory over an NFC East opponent as last week they clamped down on the Giants offense in a convincing victory of their own.
I’m going with the Cardinals laying 6 points. I’m still not confident in the Cardinals offense to do much with Kyler Murray looking adverse to running of late. But I think that having Kyler Murray provides them with an advantage against Jalen Hurts and the Eagles offense because they should have an idea of how to stop that kind of offense.
Picks: Cardinals -6 (Padlock), Under 49 (Deadbolt)
Chiefs (-3) @ Saints: O/U 52
ATS: Chiefs: 6–7, Saints: 7–6
O/U: Chiefs: 6–7, Saints: 8–5
The Chiefs now sit atop the AFC standings but have a tough test here against a Saints team looking to climb back into the top spot in the NFC. Last week was a bit of an up and down game for the Chiefs against the Dolphins where Patrick Mahomes looked human. He threw 3 interceptions. The Saints fell into a trap game last week against the Eagles and lost control of their own destiny for the sole bye week in the NFC. Drew Brees is returning for them this week, which obviously will provide a big boost to this offense. Michael Thomas is out though.
I’m going with the Chiefs laying a field goal here. I expect a shootout. I like the Chiefs defense and really like the Saints defense. But I simply don’t think Mahomes and the Chiefs offense can truly be stopped when they want to score, and in a big game like this, I expect them to turn it up a notch.
Picks: Chiefs -3 (Deadbolt), Over 52 (Deadbolt)
Browns (-6.5) @ Giants: O/U 44.5
ATS: Browns: 5–8, Giants: 8–5
O/U: Browns: 8–5, Giants: 3–9–1
The Browns have another primetime game here, and football fans are hoping it’s half of the thriller they just played in last Monday night against the Ravens. The Browns don’t care if it’s a thriller, they just want to get back to winning. The Giants now trail Washington by a game in their division, so this game holds a lot of significance in their hopes of a division title.
I’m laying the 6.5 points with the Browns. The Browns are for real. I’m buying that. The Giants have some injuries to key players. It’s not looking great for the Giants right now. I simply don’t know how they’re going to score points. I think their defense holds tough, but a final score in the range of 24–13 seems about right.
