Sunday Locks: 2023 Week 1
Texans @ Ravens (-9.5), O/U 43.5
The C.J. Stroud era begins here at Baltimore. I expect this Houston team to be much more competitive this year. I like DeMeco Ryans leading the charge. Stroud and Will Anderson should inject some excitement on both sides of the ball. This is a tough start for them though. The Ravens are always good. The only thing about the Ravens is they have a new Offensive Coordinator and new system that will completely change their brand of football that most fans are used to seeing. They will air it out much more than in years past. That may take time to find a rhythm. And Week 1 is always weird. Give me the Texans with the points along with the under.
Picks: Texans + 9.5 (Padlock), UNDER 43.5 (Deadbolt)
Buccaneers @ Vikings (-5.5), O/U 46
The Buccaneers may be one of the worst teams in football this year. I’m officially over Baker Mayfield. That being said, I’m very low on the Vikings this year. They may have a historically bad defense. They’ll put up points, and may follow up their success in one-score games that they had last year, but I’ll take the points here with the Bucs and the over.
Picks: Buccaneers +5.5 (Padlock), OVER 46 (Padlock)
49ers (-2.5) @ Steelers, O/U 41.5
The 49ers defense, which was elite last year to begin with, got better in the offseason with the addition of Javon Hargrave. But they return Brock Purdy at QB. It was a fun story how successful he was able to be in Shanahan’s system during the short stint he had at the end of last season, but now Defensive Coordinators have had a full offseason to scout him. And there’s a reason this guy was drafted when he was drafted. I expect him to have some issues, regardless of how he recovers from the injury. And I love this Steelers team. Sure, they’ll have trouble scoring, but their defense should have success just like the 49ers defense has success. Give me the points with the Steelers and the under.
Picks: Steelers +2.5 (Deadbolt), UNDER 41.5 (Padlock)
Jaguars (-4.5) @ Colts, O/U 46
I’m a big fan of Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars this year. And I think the Colts are an absolute mess, and unfortunately may ruin Anthony Richardson’s career before it can even get off the ground. I’ll gladly lay this number with the Jaguars and take the under, but I feel better about just the Colts team total being under.
Picks: Jaguars -4.5 (Fort Knox), UNDER 46 (Deadbolt)
Bengals (-2) @ Browns, O/U 47.5
The Browns have given Joe Burrow fits throughout his young career, and this may be the best the Browns team has been. Obviously, that’s assuming Deshaun Watson resembles an NFL QB again. Regardless of that though, this is a good time to play the powerhouse that is the Bengals. Week 1, Burrow had that injury, I expect them to be rusty. So give me the home dog here with the points along with the under.
Picks: Browns +2 (Deadbolt), UNDER 47.5 (Deadbolt)
Cardinals @ Commanders (-7), O/U 38
The Cardinals have no talent on their entire roster. They stink. And are borderline blatantly tanking before the season has even began. And I kind of like the Commies. They have talent on both sides of the ball and a big unknown with Sam Howell at QB. I’ll lay the touchdown with the Commies here and take the under, but feel better about just taking the Cardinals team total under.
Picks: Commanders -7 (Padlock), UNDER 38 (Padlock)
Titans @ Saints (-3), O/U 42
I think the Titans are in for a struggle this season. They have some talent, but they just feel old. The Saints don’t overly impress me either. But I do think Derek Carr will provide a bit of stability for them at the QB position, and that their defense will be able to more than carry the load while Alvin Kamara is out. I’ll lay the field goal with the Saints and take the under.
Picks: Saints -3 (Padlock), UNDER 42 (Deadbolt)
Panthers @ Falcons (-3.5), O/U 39.5
The NFC South is wide open this year, so these division games are extra important. I don’t think too highly of either of these teams, but each team has parts that are impressive. I love Brian Burns for the Panthers, who seems like he’ll play this week. And I love the young weapons on the Falcons offense. I don’t have too great a feel for this one, so I’ll just take the points with the Panthers and the over.
Picks: Panthers +3.5 (Padlock), OVER 39.5 (Padlock)
Eagles (-4) @ Patriots, O/U 45
This feels like a trap. And I’m falling for it. The Eagles are the best roster in the entire NFL, and it’s not particularly close. The Patriots are awful, particularly of offense. The issue for me is the NFL is a league where coaching matters, and clearly the Pats have the edge there, which is amplified with this much time leading up to the game. I’ll put my faith in talent here and lay the points with the Eagles. And I’ll take the under. Patriots team total under may be the best play though.
Picks: Eagles -4 (Deadbolt), UNDER 45 (Deadbolt)
Dolphins @ Chargers (-3), O/U 51
This has the feel of a Week 1 game that may fly under the radar as a game that at season’s end has major playoff implications in a deep AFC. I like both of these teams, but don’t love either of them. And they’re both pretty similar. They both have exciting offenses led by young QBs. They both have solid defenses. And they both have young coaches. The difference is I have more confidence is the Dolphins coach than I do in the Chargers, so I’ll take the field goal with the Dolphins. The over is the better play.
Picks: Dolphins +3 (Padlock), OVER 51 (Deadbolt)
Rams @ Seahawks (-5), O/U 46
Everyone hates the Rams this year. Before Cooper Kupp’s injury, and then re-injury, I was not one of them. I actually thought they had a chance at the playoffs. But losing Kupp is devastating. While I don’t think they’ll go anywhere this season, I still believe in Stafford, who should come into this game fresh. And the Seahawks don’t have a d-line that’ll cause too many problems for a very suspect Rams o-line. I’ll take the points with the Rams here along with the over.
Picks: Rams +5 (Padlock), OVER 46 (Padlock)
Packers @ Bears (-1.5), O/U 41.5
Bears fans must have been rejoicing all offseason with Aaron Rodgers leaving for the Jets. If I’m correct, they won’t be rejoicing long though, because I really believe in Jordan Love. And this Packers team is loaded around him. The Bears had a great offseason, and have generated some buzz, but I still lean Packers here. I’ll take the point with the road team along with the over.
Picks: Packers +1.5 (Deadbolt), OVER 41.5 (Fort Knox)
Raiders @ Broncos (-3.5), O/U 43.5
I don’t see either of these AFC West teams going anywhere this season. I like this Raiders team more than most, but I loved them last year as well, and they were awful. The Broncos brought in Sean Payton to try to fix Russell Wilson. The fact that that’s a sentence I just typed is enough for me to think this team is in trouble. Give me the points with the Raiders here along with the under.
Picks: Raiders +3.5 (Deadbolt), UNDER 43.5 (Padlock)
Cowboys (-3.5) @ Giants, O/U 45.5
The Giants continue to be disrespected. Sure, they don’t have the talent of the flashy names like the Cowboys do. But they’re more talented than they were last year and they made the second round of the playoffs. I like the Cowboys too, but for the Giants to be more than a field goal underdog here, at home, feels disrespectful. I’ll take the points with the dogs. Hammer the under as well.
