Sunday Locks: 2023 Week 12
Saints (-1.5) @ Falcons, O/U 41.5
Even though it’s not a very sexy game, this is one of the more important games of the week. The Saints can strengthen their hold atop the NFC South with a win. The Falcons get into play in both the divisional and Wild Card race with a win. I’m just going with the home dog here, so give me the Falcons and the under.
Picks: Falcons +1.5 (Padlock), UNDER 41.5 (Padlock)
Steelers (-2) @ Bengals, O/U 36
The Steelers finally moved on from Matt Canada, much to their fans’ delight. This kind of a move can often inject some life into a team. Jake Browning and the Bengals have an opportunity to show the AFC that they’re more than just Joe Burrow and are still playoff contenders. I don’t expect that though. So give me the Steelers here and the over.
Picks: Steelers -2 (Deadbolt), OVER 36 (Padlock)
Jaguars (-1.5) @ Texans, O/U 48.5
Jags-Texans game of the week? Yeah, I think so. The Texans could sweep the seasons series and grab the divisional tiebreaker with a win. And they couldn’t be any hotter as a team. The Jags have a real opportunity to firmly put their debacle against the Niners firmly in the rearview if they’re able to pull out a road victory here against a good team. I love this game. Give me the Jaguars and the over.
Picks: Jaguars -1.5 (Padlock), OVER 48.5 (Padlock)
Buccaneers @ Colts (-2.5), O/U 45.5
Neither of these teams strike me as true contenders, and yet, with a win, both of them will find themselves squarely in the thick of the playoff hunt. I’ll lay the number with the Colts and take the under.
Picks: Colts -2.5 (Fort Knox), UNDER 45.5 (Padlock)
Patriots (-4) @ Giants, O/U 34
This is the type of game that, if you choose to watch, you need to constantly remind yourself that if this were May, you’d kill for this game. But wow, this is an ugly one. Could it be Zappe vs. Devito? Yeah, that might be a thing. I have no faith in either of these teams, so normally I’d simply take the points. But I’ll put my faith in Belichick against rookie/young/unknown QBs one more time. I’ll lay the number with the Pats and take the under.
Picks: Patriots -4 (Padlock), UNDER 34 (Fort Knox)
Panthers @ Titans (-3.5), O/U 36.5
Another gross game. It’s amazing how many truly terrible football teams there are in the league right now. I have no real analysis here other than going against the rookie QB on the road. I’ll lay the number with the Titans and take the under.
Picks: Titans -3.5 (Padlock), UNDER 36.5 (Deadbolt)
Rams (-2.5) @ Cardinals, O/U 45
The Cardinals, and specifically Kyler Murray, have been impressive these past two weeks. But I have a gut feeling this Rams team is about to go on a run and make a push at the playoffs. I’ll lay the number with the Rams and take the over.
Picks: Rams -2.5 (Deadbolt), OVER 45 (Padlock)
Browns @ Broncos (-1.5), O/U 37
The Broncos are hot. The Browns are moving forward with DTR. All signs point towards Denver here. I’m going Browns. I expect their defense to carry them into the playoffs and shut down teams from time to time. This is one of those times. I’ll take the under as well.
Picks: Browns +1.5 (Padlock), UNDER 37 (Deadbolt)
Chiefs (-8.5) @ Raiders, O/U 43.5
I loved the Raiders all week. Antonio Pierce really has this team playing hard. But then Maxx Crosby was listed as doubtful. So I’ll get on board with a big Chiefs bounceback after last week’s tough loss. I’ll lay the number and take the under.
Picks: Chiefs -8.5 (Padlock), UNDER 43.5 (Deadbolt)
Bills @ Eagles (-3), O/U 48.5
Great opportunity here for the Bills to erase some of their recent subpar performances. A win here in Philly would get them right back on everyone’s Super Bowl radar. I don’t expect that to happen. Yes, they should be able to pass on the Birds and score some points. But it’s only a matter of time before this Eagles offense truly clicks. I think that happens here. I’ll lay the field goal with the Eagles and take the over.
Picks: Eagles -3 (Deadbolt), OVER 48.5 (Deadbolt)
Ravens (-3) @ Chargers, O/U 48.5
Great Sunday Night game, which after some of the stinky earlier games will be well-earned by all of us. While I fully expect the Ravens to take the AFC North following the Watson and Burrow injuries, they’re currently tied in the loss column with the Browns. So they can’t afford a slip up. And even though the Chargers are a mess right now, and possibly a loss here in primetime away from their head coach being fired, this is a team that seemingly always makes the nation believe in them. A win on Sunday Night against a great Ravens team would do just that. So I’ll take the field goal with the Chargers here along with the over.
