Sunday Locks: 2023 Week 14
Buccaneers @ Falcons (-2), O/U 41
What an ugly, yet meaningful, game we have here in Week 14. A Falcons win would all but eliminate the Bucs from playoff contention as it would secure the head to head sweep for them. A Bucs win makes this division very fun down the stretch. I simply don’t think the Falcons are good enough to win 3 straight, so I’ll take the points with the Bucs here along with the over.
Picks: Buccaneers +2 (Padlock), OVER 41 (Padlock)
Rams @ Ravens (-7.5), O/U 39.5
Great inter-conference game here. The Rams are hot. Their offense is dangerous. We know what their passing game can do with the somehow still underrated Matthew Stafford at the helm, but it’s their running game that has impressed and made them a legitimate playoff contender. The issue with them here is this Ravens defense should have no problem pressuring Stafford, who isn’t exactly the most evasive QB. Much like when they played the Lions and the Seahawks, I expect the Ravens to put this one away early. I’ll lay the number with the Ravens and take the under.
Picks: Ravens -7.5 (Deadbolt), UNDER 39.5 (Padlock)
Lions (-3) @ Bears, O/U 43
Sneaky tough game here. Just a casual glance at this line may cause some pause. The 9–3 Lions are only laying a field goal against the 4–8 Bears? A deeper look shows this exact matchup just a few weeks back, but in Detroit, that needed a miracle late from the Lions to escape with the win. This Bears defense is legit. And Justin Fields being back provides some excitement for their offense, which relies on a heavy dose of the ground game. The Lions are very banged up, particularly up the middle on both sides of the ball. And this game is in Chicago, meaning outside in the cold and likely the rain. So I think this line is pretty spot on. That said, I’ll still lay the field goal with the Lions and take the over.
Picks: Lions -3 (Padlock), OVER 43 (Deadbolt)
Colts @ Bengals (-2.5), O/U 44
The Colts have to lose at some point, right? I can’t wrap my head around the fact that they might actually be good. The Bengals, on the other hand, come into this one feeling revitalized after Jake Browning did his best Joe Burrow impersonation on Monday Night in a huge victory over the Jaguars. I have to imagine this line is pretty inflated based upon that performance, so I’ll simply sell high and take the Colts here. I’ll also take the over.
Picks: Colts +2.5 (Padlock), OVER 44 (Deadbolt)
Jaguars @ Browns (-2.5), O/U 34
Somehow, Trevor Lawrence may actually play in this one. I don’t care. I love this Browns defense at home against whoever is behind center. I’ll lay the field goal with the Browns and take the under.
Picks: Browns -2.5 (Deadbolt), UNDER 34 (Fort Knox)
Panthers @ Saints (-6), O/U 38.5
Derek Carr possibly being out doesn’t really move the needle for me. Taysom Hill possibly being out does. That’s all you need to know about this Saints offense. I expect this one to be ugly and low scoring, so I’ll simply take the points with the Panthers and the under.
Picks: Panthers +6 (Padlock), UNDER 38.5 (Fort Knox)
Texans (-3.5) @ Jets, O/U 32.5
Zach Wilson is back! I have a strong, sneaky suspicion that he is going to play carefree in this one and absolutely light it up. And that the Jets will still find a way to blow it. So I’ll lay the number with the Texans and take the over.
Picks: Texans -3.5 (Fort Knox), OVER 32.5 (Padlock)
Vikings (-3) @ Raiders, O/U 40
Huge game here that would create a very uphill battle for the Vikings in the playoff hunt, and could either get the Raiders back in it or completely eliminate them from it. Justin Jefferson is back. That’s big. But I can’t forget what I saw from Josh Dobbs the last time he played. He was awful. And this Raiders team has been playing hard for their coach. So I’ll take the field goal with the Raiders and the under here.
Picks: Raiders +3 (Deadbolt), UNDER 40 (Deadbolt)
Seahawks @ 49ers (-13.5), O/U 46.5
The 49ers are great. The Seahawks stink. They just played in Seattle and the Niners spanked them. Drew Lock is likely starting. This pick is easy… WRONG! Much like last week when the Seahawks absolutely needed to beat the Cowboys and played them tough, they absolutely need this one, and I expect them to play the Niners tough. I highly doubt they pull off the upset, but this is so many points, especially with the Niners fresh off of that emotionally charged game against the Eagles. I’ll take the points with the Seahawks and the over here.
Picks: Seahawks +13.5 (Deadbolt), OVER 46.5 (Deadbolt)
Bills @ Chiefs (-1.5), O/U 49
The seemingly annual Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes bowl has a different feel here. Normally, these two teams are competing for the #1 seed in the AFC and both heavily talked about as Super Bowl contenders due to their high flying offenses. This time we’re talking about a fringe playoff team in the Bills with a turnover-prone QB going up against a Chiefs team that’s reliant on their defense playing at a high level to cover up their flaws on offense. I think Pacheco being out is going to be a big deal and cause some real issues for the Chiefs, which is rare for me to say since he’s a RB. But their offense has real problems. So I’ll take the Bills here and the under.
Picks: Bills +1.5 (Deadbolt), UNDER 49 (Padlock)
Broncos @ Chargers (-2.5), O/U 44
This one feels like a trap to me. And I’m falling for it. I can’t wrap my head around this Chargers team being favored over anybody, let alone a Broncos team that’s playing well. Just give me the points with the Broncos, and a likely firing of Staley (finally), before I think more about this one. I’ll also take the over.
Picks: Broncos +2.5 (Deadbolt), OVER 44 (Padlock)
Eagles @ Cowboys (-3), O/U 51
GREAT Sunday Night game. I’m torn here. Naturally, my inclination is to sell high on the Cowboys, winners of 4 straight and playing exceptionally, and buy low on the Eagles, who just got embarrassed at home last week. But I truly think the Eagles have legit problems. Jalen Hurts does not look right. Their defense isn’t close to what it was last year. And I just like this season series to be split. So I’ll lay the field goal with the Cowboys and take the over.
