Sunday Locks: 2023 Week 15
Buccaneers @ Packers (-3.5), O/U 41.5
This week really has some sneaky, awesome games. The Bucs are tied atop the NFC South at 6–7, which also means they are in the Wild Card race with the 6–7 Packers who currently hold the 7 seed. After getting humbled last week in front of a national audience, I expect the Packers to get back on track since I simply view them as the superior team in this matchup. I’ll lay the number with the Packers and take the under.
Picks: Packers -3.5 (Padlock), UNDER 41.5 (Deadbolt)
Chiefs (-8) @ Patriots, O/U 37
I’ve never seen Patrick Mahomes as angry as he was at the end of last week’s game. And this Chiefs defense should completely stifle the Patriots offense. I’m not overthinking this one. I’ll lay the number with the Chiefs and take the under.
Picks: Chiefs -8 (Deadbolt), UNDER 37 (Padlock)
Jets @ Dolphins (-9.5), O/U 37
I can’t believe I’m saying this, but the Jets seemingly have life now after that second half last week. They won’t be making the playoffs, but Zach Wilson playing freely may be fun for the last month of this season. After seeing what the Titans were able to do last week to the Dolphins offense, I think this is way too many points. I’ll take the points with the Jets and the over.
Picks: Jets +9.5 (Deadbolt), OVER 37 (Deadbolt)
Giants @ Saints (-5.5), O/U 39
I have to think this is the most publicly bet game on the slate in favor of the Giants. And I’m completely on board. This Giants team looks a lot more like last year’s team than the one for the first half of this season. I’ll take the points with the Giants and the under.
Picks: Giants +5.5 (Fort Knox), UNDER 39 (Deadbolt)
Texans @ Titans (-4), O/U 37
The NFL needs to call this season “The Battle of the Backups”, considering how many games each week are headlined by backup QBs. Davis Mills vs. Will Levis. I liked what I saw from the Titans last week, so I’ll simply lay the number with them here and take the under.
Picks: Titans -4 (Padlock), OVER 37 (Padlock)
Falcons (-3) @ Panthers, O/U 33.5
The Panthers are tricky. They have no incentive to tank considering they don’t have their 1st round pick next year. But they are such a disaster and have no sense of leadership anywhere that I think they’re in for a rough finish to what has been an awful season for them. The Falcons are still in a division race, and also theoretically a Wild Card race as well. So I’ll lay the field goal with them here and take the under.
Picks: Falcons -3 (Deadbolt), UNDER 33.5 (Fort Knox)
Bears @ Browns (-3), O/U 38
I love how the Bears have been playing lately. Their defense is legit. Their offense has shown flashes. Yes, I love the Joe Flacco story, but the Browns offense is built on running the ball. The Bears make that very tough. I’ll take the field goal with the Bears here and take the under.
Picks: Bears +3 (Deadbolt), UNDER 38 (Fort Knox)
49ers (-12) @ Cardinals, O/U 48
In their divisional battle last week, the number went from 10.5 to 13.5, which ultimately proved to be the difference in covering vs. not for the 49ers. I view this game similarly. As long as it’s under two TDs, I’ll gladly lay the number with the 49ers. I’ll take the under as well.
Picks: 49ers -12 (Deadbolt), UNDER 48 (Padlock)
Commanders @ Rams (-6.5), O/U 50.5
The Commies may have given up on their season. And the Rams are playing great football, nearly upsetting the Ravens last week. The Commies can’t stop anyone in general, but especially through the air. Stafford should absolutely feast here. I’ll gladly lay the number with the Rams. I’ll take the under as well.
Picks: Rams -6.5 (Fort Knox), UNDER 50.5 (Padlock)
Cowboys @ Bills (-2), O/U 50.5
Awesome game here. The Cowboys feel different this year. They seem legit. Dak and this offense are playing exception football and their defense makes big plays. The Bills, on the other hand, have been a bit of a mess. But last week’s win over the Chiefs seems to have renewed people’s faith in them. I’m a little surprised they’re favored here. It’s due to them being favored that I expect a lot of people to be all over Dallas here. So I’ll lay the number with the Bills and take the over.
Picks: Bills -2 (Deadbolt), OVER 50.5 (Padlock)
Ravens (-3.5) @ Jaguars, O/U 42.5
I love this game as well. This could very well be an AFC Championship preview. The Ravens are the best team in the AFC. I have no reservation about that statement. After that, it very well might be the Jaguars. They’re well-rounded. They don’t do anything exceptionally but do everything pretty well. It really comes down to if Trevor Lawrence is healthy. I think he’ll have a tough time here against this Ravens defense, so I’ll lay the number with the Ravens and take the under.
