Sunday Locks: 2023 Week 2
Packers @ Falcons (-2), O/U 40
One of these teams will leave this week 2–0 and feeling pretty good about their start to the season. Neither had super high expectations coming in, but it’s not too difficult to envision either of them, maybe even both, winning some games and making a playoff run. The Packers are likely without their best RB and WR, which certainly hurts them. But they’re a very well-rounded team. The Falcons will try to pound the Packers, and will likely see some success with that strategy. This feels like a coin flip to me, so I’ll take the points with the Packers along with the over.
Picks: Packers +2 (Padlock), OVER 40 (Deadbolt)
Raiders @ Bills (-8), O/U 47
If Josh Allen were a stock, he’d be at an all time low right now. I have no idea how to explain what we saw last week. He had an entire offseason of everyone talking about how he played like his rookie season last year and can’t keep turning the ball over. And then he goes out and turns it over 4 times in Week 1. That doesn’t make any sense for someone as talented as this guy, but maybe he’s proving he just doesn’t belong in that top QB tier. Still, this Bills team is talented and will have games where they look dominant. I’m thinking this is one of those games. I’ll lay the points with the Bills and take the under.
Picks: Bills -8 (Padlock), UNDER 47 (Padlock)
Ravens @ Bengals (-3), O/U 46
The Ravens didn’t look spectacular in Week 1, but the Bengals were a disaster. Sure, it most likely had a lot to do with not playing in the preseason and rainy conditions, but they instilled no confidence in me going into this important early season division game. I’ll take the field goal with the Ravens along with the under.
Picks: Ravens +3 (Deadbolt), UNDER 46 (Fort Knox)
Seahawks @ Lions (-4.5), O/U 47.5
What a disappointing start to the season for the Seahawks. They were awful. Does that give them a little extra fire going into this game? Or do they just stink? I’m not sure. But one thing I am sure of is that Ford Field is going to be ROCKING today. It’s going to be loud. The fans will all be wearing blue ski masks at the request of CJ Gardner-Johnson. And the players will likely feed off of that. Oh, and this is a pretty good football team in all phases. Their defense looks night and day compared to last year, when this matchup was a 48–45 win by the Seahawks. I’ll lay the number with the Lions and take the over.
Picks: Lions -4.5 (Deadbolt), OVER 47.5 (Padlock)
Colts @ Texans (-1), O/U 39.5
Pretty gross game here on the surface, but it’s two rookie QBs drafted in the top 5 squaring off against each other, so that’s something at least. I’m not looking much further into this than I like the Texans more than I like the Colts this year, so I’ll take them here along with the under.
Picks: Texans -1 (Padlock), UNDER 39.5 (Padlock)
Chiefs (-3.5) @ Jaguars, O/U 51
The Chiefs can’t go 0–2, right? I’m not positive. The Jaguars are a good football team, and get them at home here. Yes, the Chiefs get Kelce and Chris Jones back here, which obviously is a big boost. But this Chiefs team still clearly has issues. The same issues they had last year when they won Super Bowl… This is going to be an awesome early season game and a win probably means more to the Jaguars than it does to the Chiefs, although the Chiefs better start getting some wins. The Chiefs probably win this game, but getting more than a field goal here with the home team is the pick. I’ll also take the under here.
Picks: Jaguars +3.5 (Deadbolt), UNDER 51 (Padlock)
Bears @ Buccaneers (-2.5), O/U 41
In Week 1, the Bears did not live up to the offseason hype that many had for them after a productive offseason. Their defense was awful and Justin Fields was not good. The Bucs, on the other hand, got a gritty road victory. Neither of these teams is likely to do too much this year. I’ll take the points with the Bears here along with the over.
Picks: Bears +2.5 (Padlock), OVER 41 (Deadbolt)
Chargers (-2.5) @ Titans, O/U 45.5
Austin Ekeler is out. That hurts the Chargers. But the Chargers still have talent everywhere. And the Titans are likely in for a long season. I’ll gladly lay the 2.5 points with the Chargers here and take the under.
Picks: Chargers -2.5 (Fort Knox), UNDER 45.5 (Padlock)
Giants (-4) @ Cardinals, O/U 39.5
The Giants must have thought their season started in Week 2 this year since they did not even show up last week. The Cardinals actually played a very tough football game last week, which was surprising to see from a team many think to be tanking before the season has even begun. To me, that’s a perfect buy low, sell high scenario where this spread is likely lower than it should be. I’ll lay the points with the Giants and take the under.
Picks: Giants -4 (Deadbolt), UNDER 39.5 (Deadbolt)
49ers (-7.5) @ Rams, O/U 45.5
The 49ers are awesome once again. That’s not a surprise. What is a surprise is how quickly this Rams team turned people’s opinion of them with an impressive, dominant victory last week where Matthew Stafford proved he’s still an elite QB in this league. The issue for them here is the 49ers dominate them. In particular, the 49ers d-line is going to dominate the Rams o-line. And the Rams got their offense started by pounding the rock last week. No one pounds the rock on the 49ers. I’ll lay the big number with the 49ers here and take the over.
Picks: 49ers -7.5 (Padlock), OVER 45.5 (Padlock)
Jets @ Cowboys (-9), O/U 38.5
Poor Jets fans. Absolutely brutal. But this defense is great. And the way to beat the Cowboys isn’t through the air anyway. You need to run on them. I’m not saying the Jets will beat them, but Dak can turn the ball over on the Jets defense just like Zach could turn it over on the Cowboys. So this number feels very high for what should be a low scoring game. Give me the points with the Jets along with the under.
Picks: Jets +9 (Deadbolt), UNDER 38.5 (Deadbolt)
Commanders @ Broncos (-3.5), O/U 38.5
Pretty gross game here in the late window. Both of these teams were extremely unimpressive last week. I expect a pretty ugly, close, low scoring game. I’ll take the 3.5 with the Commies along with the under.
Picks: Commanders +3.5 (Deadbolt), UNDER 38.5 (Padlock)
Dolphins (-2.5) @ Patriots, O/U 46.5
As long as Tua is leading this charge, the Dolphins are for real. And the Patriots, despite a very solid effort last week, are not. They’ll likely compete and keep games closer than they should be, but it’s tough to see them keeping up with this Dolphins offense. Bill Belichick may take Tyreek Hill away, but that likely means Jaylen Waddle is in for a monster game. Their offense is too dynamic. I’ll take the Dolphins here and the under.
