Sunday Locks: 2023 Week 3
Colts @ Ravens (-8), O/U 44
Gardner Minshew will be leading the charge here for the Colts off of their win last week. The Ravens are banged up a bit, but are sitting pretty at 2–0. I have no doubt the Ravens are the vastly superior team, even with the injuries, but this is a lot of points. And I like pulling for Minshew. Give me the points with the Colts here and the over.
Picks: Colts +8 (Deadbolt), OVER 44 (Padlock)
Titans @ Browns (-3.5), O/U 39
I was very impressed by the Titans last week as they defeated the Chargers. I really don’t have a high opinion of this team, particularly their offense. And the Browns defense may be on the verge of being elite. But Deshaun Watson does not look good. And the Browns are now Nick Chubb-less. I’ll take the points with the Titans here along with the under. I expect a close, low scoring game that ends with a field goal, one way or the other.
Picks: Titans +3.5 (Padlock), UNDER 39 (Deadbolt)
Falcons @ Lions (-3), O/U 46.5
Tough game here. The Falcons might be a good football team. They have a tough coach. They have an identity offensively where they pound the rock and do it well. The Lions are in the same boat. After all the offseason hype and Week 1 impressive victory, they put up a stinker defensively last week, also at home. And now they’re as banged up as any team out there with starters everywhere being sidelined. I don’t feel great about it, but I’ll lay the field goal with the home team and take the over.
Picks: Lions -3 (Padlock), OVER 46.5 (Deadbolt)
Saints @ Packers (-1), O/U 42.5
Home opener for Jordan Love and the Packers at Lambeau. And in comes the 2–0 Saints, who have looked pretty solid to begin the Derek Carr era. These are two very similar teams in my eyes. Both rosters are solid and well-rounded, on both sides. The QB position is really the only question mark. I know the Packers have some injuries to their skill guys, but I respect the home field advantage of Lambeau too much to not take the Packers here in what is essentially a pick’em. Give me the over too.
Picks: Packers -1 (Fort Knox), OVER 42.5 (Deadbolt)
Texans @ Jaguars (-8), O/U 44
The Texans appear to be in for another long season. Last week was disappointing, mostly defensively. I thought Demeco Ryans was going to have a bigger impact there. It’s still early though, so I’m bailing on that thought. But for now, I love the Jaguars here. I thought they’d look a lot better last week against the Chiefs on offense, but their defense was surprisingly impressive. I don’t think this one will be close. I’ll lay the number with the Jaguars and take the over.
Picks: Jaguars -8 (Deadbolt), OVER 44 (Padlock)
Broncos @ Dolphins (-6.5), O/U 48
The Broncos stink once again. The Sean Payton era is off to an awful start. Russell Wilson looks a little better though at least. But this team stinks. The Dolphins, on the other hand, are awesome. They look like the best team in the AFC right now. Their defense showed last week that this team might not have to rely on their high-powered offense week in and week out. So this pick is easy. Naturally, I’m taking the points with the Broncos here. This line should be double digits for Miami’s home opener. 6.5 makes no sense. So take the points. And the over.
Picks: Broncos +6.5 (Padlock), OVER 48 (Padlock)
Chargers @ Vikings (-1), O/U 54
0–2 vs. 0–2 for two playoff teams from last season. It’s essentially a pick’em, and for good reason. They both have high powered offenses, particularly through the air. Defensively, they both have question marks. I give the edge from a team-perspective to the Chargers, but Minnesota is at home. I don’t think the home field means anything here as I could easily see the Chargers getting off to an early start and the Minnesota fans booing mercilessly. I’ll take the Chargers and the over here.
Picks: Chargers +1 (Deadbolt), OVER 54 (Deadbolt)
Patriots (-2.5) @ Jets, O/U 36
Two great defenses. Two terrible offenses. Rainy weather. This game has all the makings of a 13–12 grinder. It’s well-established how much the Patriots have owned the Jets, even without Tom Brady. And yes, Bill Belichick will play games with Zach Wilson all day. But the Jets defense got embarrassed last week. And I think they’re still very good so will bounce back. Give me the points with the Jets here and the under.
Picks: Jets +2.5 (Padlock), UNDER 36 (Deadbolt)
Bills (-6.5) @ Commanders, O/U 43
The Bills bounced back nicely last week in a dominating win. They’ll beat up on teams from time to time. The Commies found a way to get to 2–0 and Sam Howell looked pretty good last week. This is a pretty good defense with weapons on offense. He just needs to play consistent football and this team will be competitive. I think the Bills are a different level defense for him though, and that will cause him problems. I’ll lay the points with the Bills here and take the under.
Picks: Bills -6.5 (Padlock), UNDER 43 (Padlock)
Panthers @ Seahawks (-5.5), O/U 42
Andy Dalton is back! How exciting. The Panthers offense leaves a lot to be desired, regardless of the QB position. But their defense is pretty good. The Seahawks were unstoppable on offense last week, but I don’t expect that to be the case here. I’ll take the points with the Panthers along with the under.
Picks: Panthers +5.5 (Padlock), UNDER 42 (Deadbolt)
Cowboys (-12.5) @ Cardinals, O/U 43
Double digit road favorites. Yikes. The Cardinals have actually been very competitive the first two weeks. I don’t expect that to continue here. The Cowboys offense has been humming. Their defense is so fast, even without Diggs back there. This should be a long one for Arizona. I’ll lay the big number with the Cowboys and take the over.
Picks: Cowboys -12.5 (Padlock), OVER 43 (Padlock)
Bears @ Chiefs (-12.5), O/U 48
The Bears have not lived up to their offseason hype. And Justin Fields is seeing his stock plummet. That said, this feels like a week where he’ll just let loose and run like crazy, and that should result in points since he’s that good of an athlete. The problem is they can’t stop anyone. And the Chiefs offense is due for an explosion after a slow start to the season. Mahomes needs to get his stats up. I’ll lay the number with the Chiefs here and take the over.
Picks: Chiefs -12.5 (Padlock), OVER 48 (Fort Knox)
Steelers @ Raiders (-2.5), O/U 43.5
Back to back primetime games for the Steelers. Their offense was outscored by their defense last week. Kenny Pickett has been awful to start this season. But this offense has weapons. And this defense has T.J. Watt. I like the Raiders more than most, but I’ll take the points with the Steelers here along with the under.
