Sunday Locks: 2023 Week 4
Falcons @ Jaguars (-3), O/U 43
The London Jaguars are back. Both of these teams enter this game off of a loss, with the Jaguars losers of back to back games. Some people, myself included, just thought the AFC South would be theirs by default. That doesn’t appear to be the case. They need to win some games. The Falcons are a tough opponent and will certainly look to impose their physicality here. I’ll go with the Jaguars and lay the field goal here. It may wind up being a field goal exactly, but I expect the Jaguars to get it figured out. Maybe that starts here. I’ll take the over as well.
Picks: Jaguars -3 (Padlock), OVER 43 (Padlock)
Dolphins @ Bills (-2.5), O/U 53.5
This is the game everyone wants to see. The Dolphins put up 70 points and 700+ yards last week in case you haven’t heard. They could not be stopped. And they’re 3–0. Are they the class of the AFC? Maybe. This will be a great test though. The Bills have righted the ship after their debacle back in Week 1 with two straight dominating wins, albeit against lesser opponents. That seems to be what they do — beat up on bad teams and lose to good teams. I think the whole world was so enamored with the Dolphins and the points they scored last week that I’m simply picking the opposites here and laying the points with the Bills and taking the under.
Picks: Bills -2.5 (Padlock), UNDER 53.5 (Deadbolt)
Vikings (-4) @ Panthers, O/U 46.5
0–3 vs. 0–3. Fun. One of these teams season essentially ends this week. The others gets to hold onto some false hope. The Vikings certainly have the better offense but the Panthers have a signifcantly better defense. At home, I like getting more than a field goal here. I’ll take the points with the Panthers and the under.
Picks: Panthers +4 (Deadbolt), UNDER 46.5 (Deadbolt)
Broncos (-3) @ Bears, O/U 46.5
0–3 vs. 0–3. Fun. Wait, I said that already… Another gross game where a winless road team is favored. I don’t really get this. The Bears do stink. I’m aware of that. But the Broncos just gave up 70 points. And Justin Fields seems due for a 100+ yard rushing game. I’ll take the field goal with the Bears here and the over.
Picks: Bears +3 (Deadbolt), OVER 46.5 (Fort Knox)
Ravens @ Browns (-1.5), O/U 39.5
What a big game this is. This AFC North is for sure going to be a 3-team race and may even wind up with all 4 teams over .500 at years end. So tiebreakers, both head to head and division wins in general, are going to be that much more significant. The Ravens put up a stinker last week and should bounce back. The Browns and their dominant defense have yet to face a mobile QB this year, which may neutralize Myles Garrett and that crew. I’ll take the point and a half with the Ravens here along with the under.
Picks: Ravens +1.5 (Padlock), UNDER 39.5 (Padlock)
Steelers (-3) @ Texans, O/U 42.5
What a performance by C.J. Stroud and this Texans offense last week to get their first win of the season. They may do that from time to time. I don’t think this is one of those times though. The Steelers are legit defensively and should cause havoc in the Houston backfield. And offensively, they have the ability against lesser defenses to look competent. I don’t think this one is particularly close. I’ll lay the field goal with the Steelers and take the under.
Picks: Steelers -3 (Deadbolt), UNDER 42.5 (Deadbolt)
Rams @ Colts (-1), O/U 46
These two teams have been more impressive than many may had predicted coming into the season. The Rams only have 1 win, but they were very competitive in both of their losses against the two teams who lost in the conference championships last season. The Colts, somehow, are 2–1 and are getting back the exciting Anthony Richardson. I like the Rams here in essentially a pick ’em. I’ll take the over as well.
Picks: Rams +1 (Deadbolt), OVER 46 (Padlock)
Buccaneers @ Saints (-3.5), O/U 40
Marshon Lattimore vs. Mike Evans. Can there be a camera dedicated solely to that matchup? That would be great TV. The NFC South is off to a surprisingly good start to the season, even with going 0–4 last week. The Saints owned this matchup with Tom Brady back there, so no reason to think that’ll really change with Baker behind center. I’ll lay the points with the Saints and take the under.
Picks: Saints -3.5 (Padlock), UNDER 40 (Padlock)
Commanders @ Eagles (-9), O/U 43
The Commies went into Philly last year against an 8–0 Eagles team and handled them. They did this in large part due to their ground game. While I don’t expect them to be able to replicate that kind of dominance against this Eagles d-line, I do think they’ll keep this one close. And this is a lot of points. Plus, the Eagles haven’t fully clicked yet on offense. So I’ll take the points with the Commies along with the over.
Picks: Commanders +9 (Deadbolt), OVER 43 (Deadbolt)
Bengals (-2.5) @ Titans, O/U 41
This line SCREAMS trap to me. The Bengals seemed to have figured it out in the second half last week on offense. And their defense looked dominant. The Titans stink. On principle, I normally pick against the trap. But I’m falling for it here. I don’t think this is competitive at all. I’ll take the Bengals and the under.
Picks: Bengals -2.5 (Fort Knox), UNDER 41 (Deadbolt)
Raiders @ Chargers (-5.5), O/U 49
Jimmy G is out. So I’m not sure what to make of this Raiders team. One thing I do know is that the Chargers have not been close to good defensively this year, so this will either be a get right game for them on that side of the ball, or it’ll solidify them as one of the worst units in the league. I’m leaning to the latter. Whoever is behind center for the Raiders, I have one piece of advice for you — get the ball to Davante Adams. You’re welcome. I’ll take the points with the Raiders and the over.
Picks: Raiders +5.5 (Padlock), OVER 49 (Deadbolt)
Patriots @ Cowboys (-6), O/U 44
Zeke returns to Dallas. He’s scoring a TD here, for sure. The Patriots are what they are — a bad offense and good defense led by an elite coach that always wins the scheme battle. The Cowboys were on top of the world before last week when they lost Diggs for the season and then were embarrassed by the Cardinals. They need to make a strong showing here. Unfortunately for them, I just don’t see them scoring a ton, although they will likely win. I’ll take the points with the Patriots and the under.
Picks: Patriots +6 (Padlock), UNDER 44 (Deadbolt)
Cardinals @ 49ers (-13.5), O/U 44
Another big number for the 49ers to cover. And another big number going against the surprisingly competitive Cardinals. Eventually, this team might show their lack of talent. But for now, they’re playing pretty good football, and I think this is too many points. I’ll take the points with the Cardinals and the over.
Picks: Cardinals +13.5 (Padlock), OVER 44 (Deadbolt)
Chiefs (-9) @ Jets, O/U 41.5
Mahomes vs. Rodgers… is what America wanted. Instead, it’s the best QB in the game vs. possibly the worst QB in the game. Overthinking this would be dumb. And that’s what I’m going to do. I kind of think the Jets keep this a game. I still believe this defense is very good, and can potentially cause some turnovers on some of those chances Mahomes likes to take. If you’re going to hang with the Chiefs, you’re going to have to run on them. If the Jets are going to do anything on offense, that’s what it’ll be. I’ll take the points with the Jets here and the over.
