Sunday Locks: 2023 Week 5
Jaguars @ Bills (-5.5), O/U 48.5
This is a great game. London game. Early morning. Arguably the best team in the AFC vs. a team looking for a statement win in the AFC. The Jags have a huge advantage of not having to travel leading up to this game seeing as they just played in London last week. I think this line is way too high given that fact, so I’ll take the points with the Jaguars and take the over.
Picks: Jaguars +5.5 (Deadbolt), OVER 48.5 (Deadbolt)
Texans @ Falcons (-1.5), O/U 41.5
If there were ever an example of a buy low, sell high game, this would be it. The Texans were 0–2 before winning their last two in impressive fashion. The Falcons were 2–0 before losing their last two in embarrassing fashion. This line reflects that, so I’ll pounce. I’ll lay the points with the Falcons and take the over.
Picks: Falcons -1.5 (Deadbolt), OVER 41.5 (Deadbolt)
Panthers @ Lions (-10), O/U 44
The last time the Lions were favored by double digits was 2017 when they were home against the eventual 0–16 Browns. And rightfully so. This Lions team looks like a legit contender. The Panthers are also winless, and look awful. All that said, this is a lot of points. And the Panthers play pretty good defense. It’s tough to cover double digits in lower scoring games, so I’ll take the points with the Panthers here along with the under.
Picks: Panthers +10 (Padlock), UNDER 44 (Deadbolt)
Titans (-2.5) @ Colts, O/U 43.5
I don’t think either of these teams are good despite pretty solid starts to their respective seasons. How in the world are the Titans nearly a full field goal favorite on the road against anyone? I don’t get it, which is why it’s clearly a trap. I started writing this analysis with the Colts as my pick, but am now remembering I told myself to not fall for any more of these traps. So laying the points with the Titans is the pick. And the over.
Picks: Titans -2.5 (Padlock), OVER 43.5 (Padlock)
Giants @ Dolphins (-12.5), O/U 47.5
This line jumped from 9.5 to 12.5 QUICKLY. The Giants were a mess, once again, in front of a national audience. The Dolphins were also embarrassed. The difference here is that the Giants are likely a team going nowhere, whereas the Dolphins still have legitimate Super Bowl hopes. Normally I would fade the public, which seems to be heavily on the Dolphins here. But I just can’t do it given what I saw on Monday Night. I’ll lay the big number with the Dolphins and the under.
Picks: Dolphins -12.5 (Padlock), UNDER 47.5 (Padlock)
Saints @ Patriots (-1), O/U 39
Defense and bad offense. That’s what I’m expecting to see in this game. I don’t have much more analysis other than that. I’m banking on Bill Belichick not allowing this Patriots team to spiral here, so I’ll take New England and the under.
Picks: Patriots -1 (Padlock), UNDER 39 (Deadbolt)
Ravens (-4.5) @ Steelers, O/U 38
I don’t care who is starting at QB for the Steelers. Mike Tomlin and the Steelers are getting points at home against the Ravens. I’m taking the Steelers and the under. Enough said.
Picks: Steelers +4.5 (Deadbolt), UNDER 38 (Deadbolt)
Bengals (-3) @ Cardinals, O/U 44
I want to pick the Bengals so badly here. I really do. They’re a fun team when clicking. And the AFC playoffs could be so good if they figure it out. But right now, they are awful. Joe Burrow is not right. Sure, they’re playing the Cardinals, but they have no business being favored by a field goal on the road right now. So I’ll take the points with the Cardinals along with the under.
Picks: Cardinals +3 (Padlock), UNDER 44 (Padlock)
Eagles (-4) @ Rams, O/U 50
The Eagles needed overtime last week to remain undefeated. The Rams also needed overtime last week to snap their 2-game losing streak. Stafford was dinged up last week, which is less than ideal going into this week against the ferocious Eagles d-line, particularly with the Rams o-line not exactly being its strength. I do, however, love the idea of Cooper Kupp coming back in this one and the Rams passing attack going against the Eagles secondary. So I’ll take the points with the Rams here and the over.
Picks: Rams +4 (Padlock), OVER 50 (Fort Knox)
Jets @ Broncos (-2.5), O/U 43.5
Zach Wilson revived his career, at least for one more week, with his stellar play last week. If he plays like consistently, this Jets team will win a bunch of games. The good news for him is he gets the Broncos here, who haven’t stopped anyone so far this season. And the Jets have to be motivated to support Nathaniel Hackett after what Sean Payton said about him. So I’ll take the points with the Jets and the over here.
Picks: Jets +2.5 (Padlock), OVER 43.5 (Deadbolt)
Chiefs (-3.5) @ Vikings, O/U 53
This may be a trap that I’m falling for, and I can’t stop myself. How in the world are the Chiefs only 3.5 point favorites against the Vikings? I simply don’t get it. Yes, the Vikings are home. Yes, the Chiefs offense hasn’t looked particularly sharp. Yes, the Chiefs defense just made Zach Wilson look elite. But the Vikings stink. And the Chiefs’ defense has actually played really well so far this season. This feels like a steal to me. I’ll lay the points with the Chiefs and take the under.
Picks: Chiefs -3.5 (Fort Knox), UNDER 53 (Deadbolt)
Cowboys @ 49ers (-3.5), O/U 45
This is the game everyone is waiting to see. The Cowboys have been dominant outside of that one game against the Cardinals. Their defense scores points better than some offenses do. The 49ers have been an absolute force through the first quarter of the season. And they seemingly own the Cowboys in recent years. I expect that to continue here. I simply think the 49ers style of play matches up perfectly with beating the Cowboys. They pound defenses. They make safe throws. I’ll lay the points with the 49ers and take the under.
