Sunday Locks: 2023 Week 6
Ravens (-5.5) @ Titans, O/U 42.5
London again! I really want this to become an every week thing. I like this Ravens team, but they haven’t truly connected yet with this new passing offense of theirs. I don’t like this Titans team, but they’ve actually been pretty competitive to start this season. This is a lot of points, so I’ll take the points with the Titans along with the under.
Picks: Titans +5.5 (Padlock), UNDER 42.5 (Deadbolt)
Commanders @ Falcons (-1), O/U 42.5
The Commanders were embarrassed last Thursday Night. The Falcons are coming off of a win. Simple buy low, sell high game for me. I’ll take the Commanders here along with the under.
Picks: Commanders +1 (Padlock), UNDER 42.5 (Padlock)
Vikings (-3) @ Bears, O/U 43.5
I have no clue why the Vikings are favored on the road here. The Bears looked much improved last week and the Vikings just lost Justin Jefferson. I love the Bears here so much it scares me. But I’ll take the field goal with the Bears and hammer the over.
Picks: Bears +3 (Deadbolt), OVER 43.5 (Fort Knox)
Seahawks @ Bengals (-3), O/U 44.5
Awesome interconference game here. The Seahawks are legit. And they’re coming off of their bye. The Bengals look like they’re back, but I also thought they were back when they beat the Rams a couple weeks back. So I don’t really know what to make of them. I’ll take the field goal with the Seahawks and the over.
Picks: Seahawks +3 (Deadbolt), OVER 44.5 (Deadbolt)
49ers (-9.5) @ Browns, O/U 36
I LOVED the Browns here when I thought Deshaun Watson was playing. But he’s not, for whatever reason. But my reason for loving them still remains. The Browns have a very good defense that could finally pose a challenge to the Niners. They’re not flashy like the Cowboys. They’re simply a solid group. And this is a natural let-down spot for the Niners as they’re coming off of that huge primtime matchup against Dallas. With Watson out, I’m much less confident about the pick, and I certainly don’t think the Browns win the game anymore, but I’ll take the points with the Browns and the over.
Picks: Browns +9.5 (Padlock), OVER 36 (Padlock)
Saints (-1.5) @ Texans, O/U 42
Big win last week for the Saints. Tough loss last week for the Texans. Another buy low, sell high game. Plus, I kind of like this Texans team. So I’ll take the Texans and the over here.
Picks: Texans +1.5 (Padlock), OVER 42 (Padlock)
Colts @ Jaguars (-4), O/U 44
The Colts never beat the Jags in Jacksonville. That said, the Jags are back in the states following two weeks in London. I really like this Jags team and don’t really like this Colts team, but the two weeks in London, in which the Jags really looked great, I think will take its toll. So give me the points with the Colts along with the under. Bonus play might be Colts first half.
Picks: Colts +4 (Fort Knox), UNDER 44 (Padlock)
Panthers @ Dolphins (-14.5), O/U 47.5
This is my “don’t overthink it” game of the week. The Panthers are a mess. They’re certainly not tanking since they don’t have their first pick. But they’re simply a bad football team with a young QB who is still figuring it out. So I’ll lay the number with the Dolphins and take the over.
Picks: Dolphins -14.5 (Deadbolt), OVER 47.5 (Padlock)
Lions (-3) @ Buccaneers, O/U 42.5
Who would’ve thought this would be the game of the week between the 1st place Lions and the 1st place Bucs? Awesome. Home/away hasn’t mattered nearly as much this year as opposed to last year for the Lions, and the warm weather in Tampa should allow their offense to still fire away. So I’ll lay the field goal with the Lions and take the over.
Picks: Lions -3 (Deadbolt), OVER 42.5 (Deadbolt)
Patriots @ Raiders (-3), O/U 41.5
The days of me thinking the Patriots are going to bounce back simply because they’re the Patriots are done. They’re a bad football team. I’m not yet convinced the Raiders are a bad football team. I think they’re more middle of the pack. So I’ll lay the field goal with the home team here and hammer the under.
Picks: Raiders -3 (Padlock), UNDER 41.5 (Fort Knox)
Cardinals @ Rams (-7), O/U 48
The Cardinals got off to a hot start this season. But they’ve looked non-competitive these past two weeks like many people envisioned coming into the season. The Rams might be a good team. A convincing win here would help solidify that. I expect that to happen. So I’ll lay the touchdown with the Rams and take the over.
Picks: Rams -7 (Deadbolt), OVER 48 (Deadbolt)
Eagles (-7) @ Jets, O/U 42.5
A lot of injuries in this one for both teams, mostly on the defensive side of the ball. The Eagles are elite. The Jets still don’t know what they are. But this is a bigger game for the Jets than it is for the Eagles. And they’re home. They might not win, but I expect them to keep it competitive. I’ll take the points with the Jets here and take the over.
Picks: Jets +7 (Padlock), OVER 42.5 (Padlock)
Giants @ Bills (-15), O/U 44
Contrary to my thoughts on the Panthers-Dolphins game, this is my “go ahead and overthink it” game of the week. I’m aware the Giants are arguably the worst team in the league. I’m aware the Bills are very good and typically beat up on bad teams. I love laying big numbers with the Bills. And coming off of that tough loss in London, I expect them to be fired up here. But that’s just it. They’re coming back from London without a bye. And Brian Daboll is back in Buffalo. And the Giants are rolling out a new QB. So I think this number is too high. I’ll take the points with the Giants along with the under.
