Sunday Locks (NFL Week 13)
Colts (-9.5) @ Texans, O/U 45.5
The Colts should have no problem handling the lowly Texans who just lost by 7 at home to the Jets last week. A double digit win by them should be easy. Give me the Colts.
Picks: Colts -9.5 (Deadbolt), UNDER 45.5 (Padlock)
Cardinals (-7.5) @ Bears, O/U 43.5
Andy Dalton showed last week that although not flashy, he can still win football games. Sure it was against the Lions, but he still played winning football for the most part. That being said, this game is at home for the Bears. And I don’t think that’s a good thing for Matt Nagy. As soon as things turn for the worse, the crowd will absolutely turn on this team, and that sets up nicely for a blowout for the road team, which happens to be one of the best teams, and somehow most underrated team, in football. I’ll take the Cardinals.
Picks: Cardinals -7.5 (Padlock), OVER 43.5 (Padlock)
Giants @ Dolphins (-6), O/U 41
I liked the Giants when the spread was around 4. Of course, that was before Daniel Jones was ruled out. I’m not changing my mind though. If I were to change my mind, that would imply that I liked the way Daniel Jones and this offense have been moving the ball, which is simply not the case. I think Mike Glennon will have similar results behind center, so getting the extra 2 points is nice. I’ll take the Giants.
Picks: Giants +6 (Padlock), OVER 41 (Padlock)
Buccaneers (-10.5) @ Falcons, O/U 51
Before really thinking about this game, I liked the Falcons. Double digit points just seemed too much for the home team in a division game. Then I remembered that back in Week 2 the Bucs annihilated the Falcons by 23, and they’re playing better football now. So I’ll take the Bucs here.
Picks: Buccaneers -10.5 (Padlock), OVER 51 (Padlock)
Eagles (-7) @ Jets, O/U 44.5
Coming off of a very disappointing life at Metlife Stadium against the Giants, the Eagles get another game there against the Jets. It’s tough to have confidence that they’ll correct whatever went wrong last week and win a football game convincingly. But, my “NEVER pick the Jets” rule still applies, despite it backfiring on me last week. So I have to take the Eagles here.
Picks: Eagles -7 (Padlock), UNDER 44.5 (Padlock)
Chargers @ Bengals (-3), O/U 50.5
Points, points, points. That’s what I feel good about in this game. These are two teams that have been up and down all season long, with very nice wins, and extremely disappointing losses. It feels like whichever team wins this game is in a great spot to make the postseason in a tight AFC, and whichever team loses may be in trouble. I’ve been high on the Chargers all season long, and although I do really like the Bengals too, I have to take the team coming off of a loss as opposed to the team coming off of the win. Give me the Chargers.
Picks: Chargers +3 (Padlock), OVER 50.5 (Deadbolt)
Vikings (-7.5) @ Lions, O/U 47
Injuries have really made this game tough to predict. The Vikings will be without star RB Dalvin Cook, which is certainly a tough loss. He does so much for this team, but you can certainly see a world where those two stud WRs step up and they still have success. The Lions are without their own explosive RB in D’Andre Swift. He has been the entire offense, albeit as pitiful as this offense has been, for the Lions in most games this year. Still, the Lions have been playing close, competitive football games lately. In what I expect to be a low-scoring game, 7.5 points is a ton. So give me the Lions here.
Picks: Lions +7.5 (Padlock), UNDER 47 (Deadbolt)
Football Team @ Raiders (-1), O/U 49
A sneaky great, very important interconference game here between two teams trying to make the postseason. The Raiders are coming off of a very impressive Thanksgiving Day win where they put to bed a couple really bad weeks of football for them. The Football Team is all of a sudden starting to look like the team many expected them to be entering the season. With no Darren Waller, I have to go with Washington here.
Picks: Football Team +1 (Deadbolt), UNDER 49 (Deadbolt)
Jaguars @ Rams (-12.5), O/U 48
Since the acquisitions of Von Miller and Odell Beckham Jr., the Rams have seemingly fallen apart. They can’t run the ball. They can’t pass protect. Matthew Stafford is throwing pick 6’s. The defense gets beaten up by physical opponents. You have to look at this game as a “get right game” for them, but 12.5 is far too many for me to lay with them right now. So I’ll take the Jaguars here.
Picks: Jaguars +12.5 (Deadbolt), OVER 48 (Padlock)
49ers (-3.5) @ Seahawks, O/U 46
I’ve said for weeks that I’m not giving up on the Seahawks because the second I do, I know they’ll make me regret it as they’ve done for years. But I’m finally doing it. The Seahawks are a bad football team. That’s not debatable right now. Whether Russell Wilson simply came back from the injury too fast or is just not the same player as he was in years past is unknown, but the point remains that he’s not playing good football. They also can’t run the ball, so that’s a bad combination if you’re trying to score points. The 49ers are hot right now, so I’ll roll with them in Seattle here laying the points.
Picks: 49ers -3.5 (Deadbolt), UNDER 46 (Deadbolt)
Ravens (-4.5) @ Steelers, O/U 44
Have opposing defenses figured out the Ravens? It sure seems like it, as they haven’t scored more than 16 points in their past three games. The strategy seems simple too: send the house after Lamar. I think the Steelers follow that blueprint. To be clear, I do not think the Steelers are a good team. In fact, I’ve said all season I thought they were a bad team. But I do respect Mike Tomlin enough to think his team will respond after that embarrassment last week and keep this one close. I’ll take the points with the Steelers here.
Picks: Steelers +4.5 (Deadbolt), UNDER 44 (Padlock)
Broncos @ Chiefs (-9.5), O/U 47.5
The Broncos have surprised me in recent weeks as they’ve won 3 of their last 4. They’ve done so by playing incredibly stingy defense. While that may be tough to do against this Chiefs offense, particularly in home during primetime, I’m going to take the points with the Broncos here.
Picks: Broncos +9.5 (Deadbolt), UNDER 47.5 (Padlock)
Zack Nicol and I have partnered to do a head to head challenge every week called LOCK OFF. We’ll pick 4 of our favorite spreads and battle it out.
This week’s LOCK OFF picks:
Zack Nicol: Buccaneers -10.5, Colts -9.5, Seahawks +3.5, Raiders -1.5
Craig Ebinger: Colts -9.5, Steelers +4.5, Broncos +9.5, 49ers -3.5