Sunday Locks (NFL Week 15)
Panthers @ Bills (-12), O/U 44.5
Outside of the head-scratching loss to the Jaguars, the Bills season has been fairly consistent. They beat up on bad teams and lose to good teams. I view the Panthers as a bad team, so this game is an easy one for me to pick. I’ll lay the massive amount of points on the Bills.
Picks: Bills -12 (Deadbolt), OVER 44.5 (Padlock)
Cardinals (-12.5) @ Lions, O/U 47.5
The Lions enter this game with their roster, particularly their secondary, destroyed by Covid issues. The Cardinals just lost their top WR for the rest of the regular season. The Cardinals will have no problem winning this game, but the Lions have simply found ways to cover this year, and this a lot of points to be getting at home. Give me the Lions.
Picks: Lions +12.5 (Padlock), UNDER 47.5 (Deadbolt)
Cowboys (-11) @ Giants, O/U 44
I’m breaking my rule here and I don’t feel good about it. NFC East game and the home team is getting double digits. And yet I can’t convince myself to take the Giants. They’ve been such a disaster all season, but particularly of late. I have to lay the points with the Cowboys who are simply just a much better team.
Picks: Cowboys -11 (Padlock), OVER 44 (Padlock)
Jets @ Dolphins (-9.5), O/U 41
I will not break my rule of never picking the Jets. I could see them keeping this one relatively close, especially with Jaylen Waddle being out due to Covid. But the Dolphins have been playing much better of late, are coming out of their bye, and are the home team. They should be able to win by double digits. I’m taking the Dolphins.
Picks: Dolphins -9.5 (Padlock), OVER 41 (Padlock)
Titans @ Steelers (-1), O/U 43.5
This game is essentially a must win for the Steelers if they want to have any shot at making the playoffs. And they have a good opportunity as the home team against a team who, despite their record, is also not very good (at least until Derrick Henry comes back, if that were to happen). But I have no confidence in Big Ben or their offensive line. So I have to go with the Titans here.
Picks: Titans +1 (Deadbolt), OVER 43.5 (Deadbolt)
Texans @ Jaguars (-5), O/U 39.5
I was so mad when Urban Meyer was fired mid-week because this was the game that I was most confident about until that moment. I was going with the Texans and going to feel incredible about it. Ironically enough, before the firing, the Texans were only getting 3. So, in theory, the bookmakers think Urban Meyer was worth 2 points for the opposing team. That just makes me laugh. With him being fired, Darrell Bevell takes over as the interim head coach for the second straight season. Last year, he took over around this same time with the Lions when Matt Patricia was (finally) fired. And the Lions won that game in a shootout. I’ll say history repeats itself, and I’ll go with the Jaguars here.
Picks: Jaguars -5 (Padlock), OVER 39.5 (Deadbolt)
Falcons @ 49ers (-9), O/U 46
For a game with two teams separated by just a game in the tight Wild Card race in the NFC, this is a big spread. I get it, the Falcons are not good. But the 49ers aren’t exactly the biggest powerhouse either. I just have to take the points here. That’s too many. Give me the Falcons.
Picks: Falcons +9 (Deadbolt), OVER 46 (Padlock)
Bengals @ Broncos (-3), O/U 44.5
Bookmakers must hate the Bengals. Last week they were underdogs at home to the 49ers (and didn’t cover but did force OT) and this week they’re a full field goal underdog to the Broncos. Sure, this is on the road and Denver is a good home field advantage, but the Broncos are not as good as their record says they are. I have to take the points with the Bengals here.
Picks: Bengals +3 (Deadbolt), OVER 44.5 (Padlock)
Packers (-7) @ Ravens, O/U 43.5
Lamar’s status ultimately determines how good I feel about this pick, but not the pick itself. I’m well aware that if Lamar does play, this line likely drops, but that wouldn’t bother me. The Packers are that good, and the Ravens are not. The Packers will win this game convincingly. The only reason why this isn’t a Fort Knox pick is because Lamar has yet to be ruled out as of this writing.
Picks: Packers -7 (Deadbolt), OVER 43.5 (Padlock)
Saints @ Buccaneers (-11.5), O/U 45.5
The Saints always give this Buccaneers team a hard time. The Saints beat them back on Halloween in their first matchup of the season. While I don’t expect them to repeat with a victory here, particularly with Sean Payton not on the sidelines due to Covid, I feel good getting double digits with them. Give me the Saints.
Picks: Saints +11.5 (Deadbolt), UNDER 45.5 (Padlock)
— — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —
Zack Nicol and I have partnered to do a head to head challenge every week called LOCK OFF. We’ll pick 4 of our favorite spreads and battle it out.
This week’s LOCK OFF picks:
Zack Nicol: Ravens +7, Dolphins -9.5, Jaguars -4.5, Cardinals -12.5
Craig Ebinger: Packers -7, Bengals +3, Falcons +9, Bills -12
