Sunday Locks (NFL Week 17)
Buccaneers (-12.5) @ Jets, O/U 45
No reason to overthink this. Lay the points with the better team. I’ll take the Bucs.
Picks: Buccaneers -12.5 (Deadbolt), OVER 45 (Padlock)
Chiefs (-5) @ Bengals, O/U 51
This is probably the game of the week. The Chiefs are the hottest team in football as winners of 8 straight. They would love to continue that streak into the postseason as the top seed, but get a true test this week as they go into Cincy. Not only would the Bengals clinch their division with a win, but they would immediately grab the attention of everyone as a legitimate Super Bowl contender. It’s hard to have too much confidence with this pick, seeing as the Bengals have been one of the most inconsistent teams in the league all season long, but I’ll take the points with them here in what I expect to be a very competitive game.
Picks: Bengals +5 (Padlock), OVER 51 (Padlock)
Eagles (-4.5) @ Football Team, O/U 45
My “take the points in an NFC East game” rule has been thoroughly proven incorrect of late, but this might be one where it applies. The Eagles are certainly rolling right now, but to be 4.5 point favorites on the road against their division rival seems a bit much. I’ll take the points with Washington here.
Picks: Football Team +4.5 (Padlock), UNDER 45 (Padlock)
Rams (-4) @ Ravens, O/U 46.5
Lamar’s status is currently still up in the air, but quite frankly, it won’t impact this pick much. I do think the Ravens aggressive approach has a shot at causing Stafford some headaches, but after a 3-interception performance last week, I expect him to bounce back. And I don’t expect the Ravens offense to do much. I’ll lay the points with the Rams.
Picks: Rams -4 (Padlock), OVER 46.5 (Deadbolt)
Falcons @ Bills (-14), O/U 44
The Falcons continue to be scrappy and hang on to the outskirts of the playoff race, but the Bills are hot right now, and have a ton to play for. I don’t expect them to have too much problem running away with this game as they try to get the division title. A full two touchdowns is certainly a lot, but I’ll lay that with the Bills here.
Picks: Bills -14 (Padlock), OVER 44 (Padlock)
Jaguars @ Patriots (-16), O/U 41.5
Once again, don’t overthink it. This is a ton of points, but it’s Bill Belichick against a rookie QB. It’s the Patriots at home trying to stay alive in the division race and get back on track following a rough patch against a team who has been checked out for weeks, maybe months. The Jaguars likely won’t reach double digits, so 16 should be fairly easy to cover for the Pats.
Picks: Patriots -16 (Padlock), OVER 41.5 (Padlock)
Dolphins @ Titans (-3.5), O/U 39.5
This is a good one. The Dolphins are very easy to root for. They were 1–7 to begin the season but have rattled off 7 straight victories to get back into the playoff picture. They have a good coach, a young QB playing some good ball right now, a rookie WR with an adorable TD dance, and big men who love to have fun. The Titans are also easy to root for. They also have a great coach, continue to win despite the loss of Derrick Henry and the inconsistent health from their two stud WRs, and just play very tough football. I expect a tight game here, so give me the points with the Dolphins.
Picks: Dolphins +3.5 (Padlock), OVER 39.5 (Padlock)
Raiders @ Colts (-7), O/U 44.5
Carson Wentz looks like he’ll play this week, which is all I needed to hear for this pick. The Colts are an awesome football team. Offensively, defensively, they’re simply very good. The Raiders have hung around the playoff race with back to back close wins, and certainly have a ton to play for, but they have very little chance here of keeping this one competitive. Give me the Colts.
Picks: Colts -7 (Deadbolt), OVER 44.5 (Padlock)
Giants @ Bears (-5.5), O/U 37
This game stinks. I don’t even know who’s starting at QB for the Giants, and I don’t care. The Giants are a mess. One of the few teams who are in the same category of mess as them happens to be their opponent. This Bears home crowd has been waiting for that perfect opportunity to let Matt Nagy know how they feel, and their final home game of the season against one of the worst teams in the league may just give them that chance. But I’ll still take the Bears here to cover, just because of how this Giants offense will likely look.
Picks: Bears -5.5 (Padlock), UNDER 37 (Padlock)
Texans @ 49ers (-12), O/U 44
With Jimmy G doubtful, it’s looking like it’s Trey Lance time, which is simply exciting for football fans. He hasn’t played much since the beginning of October, so it’ll be interesting to see how he’s progressed and how he’ll be used. It’ll also be interesting to see how much Shanahan shows of him, as he’s mostly kept him on the bench this season, perhaps hiding him for a key postseason moment. He may not be able to hold him back here though as the 49ers need a win and the Texans come in as winners of two straight games where they scored 71 points. I expect the 49ers to win, but this is a ton of points for a rookie QB to cover, so I’ll take the points with the Texans.
Picks: Texans +12 (Padlock), UNDER 44 (Padlock)
Broncos @ Chargers (-7.5), O/U 45.5
The fact that the Broncos would leap the Chargers in the standings if they win this game astounds me. I’m officially off of the Chargers bandwagon. It was too painful of a ride. As explosive and flashy as this team is, particularly offensively, it’s simply too hard to win a football game if you’re incapable of stopping the other team’s rushing attack, and that’s the case here. And guess what? The Broncos have two solid RBs and solid rushing attack, which is why they dominated the Chargers a month ago in their first game. Everything in my brain is telling me the Chargers are too good of a team to miss the playoffs, and a loss here would essentially make that a reality. But I’m going to take the Broncos getting the points.
Picks: Broncos +7.5 (Deadbolt), OVER 45.5 (Deadbolt)
Cardinals @ Cowboys (-6), O/U 52
With how poorly the Cardinals have looked lately, how dominant the Cowboys were last week, and the natural Cowboys bias in their lines, I expected this spread to be significantly higher. I’ll gladly take the Cowboys here, not so much because I think they’re all that spectacular, but because I’m convinced the Cardinals are spiraling down and expect that to continue this week.
Picks: Cowboys -6 (Fort Knox), UNDER 52 (Padlock)
Lions @ Seahawks (-7), O/U 42.5
There are 4 teams in the NFL who have 10 or more wins ATS so far on the season (through 15 games). 3 of them are Super Bowl contenders in the Cowboys, Packers, and Colts. The 4th is the Lions. I get that the Seahawks should bounce back at home here after a devastating loss to the Bears last week, but I expect the Lions to continue to play 60 competitive minutes of football, even with Tim Boyle back at QB, and keep this game close. Give me the Lions.
Picks: Lions +7 (Deadbolt), UNDER 42.5 (Deadbolt)
Panthers @ Saints (-6.5), O/U 37.5
Back in Week 2, the Panthers beat the Saints by 19 and Sam Darnold threw for over 300 yards. That seems like a lifetime ago. Although Darnold will be starting again, it’s difficult to envision him having the same kind of success here against one of the better defenses in the league. And with Taysom Hill back for the Saints, I’ll gladly lay the points with them here.
Picks: Saints -6.5 (Deadbolt), UNDER 37.5 (Deadbolt)
Vikings @ Packers (-13), O/U 42.5
NBC must be so angry. In Week 15, Sunday Night Football featured a Bucs team who lost 3 of their offensive stars early. In Week 16, the game was long over midway through the 2nd quarter of Washington-Dallas. And now in Week 17, they get the Vikings with Sean Mannion at QB. Yikes. I actually was excited for a competitive game until that news. The Vikings typically play the Packers close and this is such an important game for them in the playoff race. But it’s impossible to think this will be a competitive game now aside from just wishful thinking. I’ll lay the points with the Packers.
Picks: Packers -13 (Deadbolt), OVER 42.5 (Padlock)
— — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —
Zack Nicol and I have partnered to do a head to head challenge every week called LOCK OFF. We’ll pick 4 of our favorite spreads and battle it out.
This week’s LOCK OFF picks:
Zack Nicol: Eagles -4.5, Rams -6, Cowboys -6.5, Saints -6.5
Craig Ebinger: Cowboys -6, Buccaneers -12.5, Colts -7, Broncos +7.5
