Sunday Locks (NFL Week 18)

Colts (-14.5) @ Jaguars, O/U 44

Honestly, this number could be 30 and I’d still probably pick the Colts. How could you possibly pick the Jaguars here? A win for the Colts gets them in the playoffs. The Jaguars just lost by 40 and are as checked out as a football team could be. I can’t imagine watching this game and having to root for the Jaguars here. Give me the Colts.

Picks: Colts -14.5 (Fort Knox), UNDER 44 (Deadbolt)

Titans (-10) @ Texans, O/U 42.5

For a bad team, the Texans have shown a lot of fight these past few weeks, having won 2 of 3 and leading at half in their only loss. But the Titans are playing to secure the top seed in the AFC. I’m not sure if Derrick Henry is playing or not, but I don’t think it matters. I have to take the Titans here. Too much is on the line for a good team like them to let a bad team like the Texans hang around in this one. I’ll lay the points.

Picks: Titans -10 (Padlock), OVER 42.5 (Padlock)

Steelers @ Ravens (-3.5), O/U 41

This is likely Big Ben’s final game of his career, and how perfect that it’s in Baltimore. These two teams always compete hard against each other, but typically one, or both, of them are playoff-bound. That’s probably not the case this season, as the winner would still need a miracle to happen to continue playing next week. As much as I’d love to see Ben ride off into the sunset and beat his fiercest rival, the Steelers offense just looks so atrocious that I can’t do it. I’ll lay the points with the Ravens.

Picks: Ravens -3.5 (Padlock), UNDER 41 (Padlock)

Packers (-3) @ Lions, O/U 44.5

Why in the world are the Packers’ starters even dressing for this one? That makes this pick interesting, seeing as it’s tough to predict how long Rodgers and co. will play. My guess is they’ll play about a half, and Rodgers will throw for a couple TDs as he tries to lock down the MVP award. If this game had any meaning, this spread would easily be double digits. But since the Lions will likely be playing hard for the duration of the game, as they’ve done all season long, I have to take the points with the Lions here.

Picks: Lions +3 (Padlock), OVER 44.5 (Padlock)

Football Team (-7) @ Giants, O/U 37.5

The Giants have scored 13 or fewer points in 5 of their last 6 games, and it’s tough to think this game will be any different. If that’s the case, Washington just needs to crack 20 to cover, which I think they will. Give me the Football Team (2/2/22 can’t get here fast enough…).

Picks: Football Team -7 (Deadbolt), UNDER 37.5 (Padlock)

Bengals @ Browns (-6), O/U 37

I have no clue what to do with this game. The Bengals have clinched the division and a home playoff game, but seeding is still in play. Clearly they don’t care too much about that though since they’ve already announced they’ll be benching many of their key guys. But the Browns also have a backup QB, albeit a good one, playing in this one. Since the Browns have disappointed all season, I’ll take the Bengals with the points here.

Picks: Bengals +6 (Padlock), OVER 37 (Padlock)

Bears @ Vikings (-4), O/U 44.5

Akiem Hicks being out in this one was all I needed to hear to make me feel good about this pick, seeing as he has always given Dalvin Cook fits trying to run the football. With him out, I don’t see the Vikings offense having much trouble scoring points to finish out what was a disappointing season for them. And despite their little winning streak, I can’t see the Bears finishing this season on a high note. Give me the Vikings.

Picks: Vikings -4 (Deadbolt), UNDER 44.5 (Deadbolt)

49ers @ Rams (-4), O/U 44.5

The last time the Rams defeated the 49ers was back in 2018, making it 5 straight for the Niners. This game has a ton of meaning to it, and it’s been well-documented that Matthew Stafford has not had the best track record in meaningful games. I do expect Stafford to have a good game, but the rest of this Rams team scares me. They struggle to stop the run, which the 49ers do very well. I’ll take the points with the 49ers here in what should be a very good, entertaining game.

Picks: 49ers +4 (Padlock), OVER 44.5 (Deadbolt)

Jets @ Bills (-16.5), O/U 40.5

I was super close to breaking my “Never Take the Jets” rule this week. I had it all typed out and everything. And then I couldn’t do it. Maybe next year will be different, but I can’t do it this year. I’ll lay the points with the Bills.

Picks: Bills -16.5 (Padlock), OVER 40.5 (Padlock)

Panthers @ Buccaneers (-8), O/U 41.5

I’m very curious to see what the Buccaneers do this week after all of the Antonio Brown drama. Right now, it’s very tough to have any confidence in this team. But they do still have that #12 guy behind center. I’ll lay the points with the home team.

Picks: Buccaneers -8 (Padlock), UNDER 41.5 (Padlock)

Patriots (-6.5) @ Dolphins, O/U 40

I am very curious how Mac Jones fares in this game. The Dolphins defense can be confusing to figure out and could cause him fits. They did just get absolutely torched on the ground by the Titans last week, which is probably a very good gameplan for the Patriots to follow. And I don’t expect the Dolphins to put up many points against the Patriots. Still, I think this game will be very low-scoring, and I feel better having the points. Give me the Dolphins.

Picks: Dolphins +6.5 (Padlock), UNDER 40 (Deadbolt)

Seahawks @ Cardinals (-5.5), O/U 48

Much like the theme of this week, I don’t have a great feel on this game. Ultimately, one team has something to play for and one doesn’t. The Cardinals have a realistic shot at winning the division and getting a home playoff game, but they need a win here for that to happen. So I’ll take the Cardinals laying the points.

Picks: Cardinals -5.5 (Padlock), OVER 48 (Padlock)

Saints (-3.5) @ Falcons, O/U 39.5

I can essentially copy and paste what I wrote above for this game. The Falcons do have a chance at knocking their division rival out of the playoffs, but the Saints are playing to get in. And I expect that to be the difference. Give me the Saints.

Picks: Saints -3.5 (Padlock), UNDER 39.5 (Deadbolt)

Chargers (-3) @ Raiders, O/U 49.5

The game of the week. This is a playoff game, plain and simple. The Chargers are clearly more talented and have more upside than the Raiders. They’re the flashier pick. But they’ve disappointed every chance they’ve had. And the Raiders have continued to persevere in the face of adversity all season long. So I have to go with the Raiders here getting a field goal.

Picks: Raiders +3 (Padlock), OVER 49.5 (Padlock)

--

--

Get the Medium app

A button that says 'Download on the App Store', and if clicked it will lead you to the iOS App store
A button that says 'Get it on, Google Play', and if clicked it will lead you to the Google Play store