Sunday Locks (NFL Week 4)

Craig Ebinger
6 min readOct 3, 2021

Chiefs (-7) @ Eagles, O/U 54

Are the Chiefs in the middle of a lengthy slump, or are they at the end of a little hiccup in their season? I’m thinking the latter, but purely because of the matchup. Let me be clear: I genuinely believe the Chiefs have issues, both defensively and with opposing defenses starting to figure out that by limiting the explosive plays of Tyreek Hill, this team can be contained. Fortunately for them, the Eagles showed me nothing last week to make me believe they’ll hang with them, especially coming off of two losses. I’m sure the Eagles will run the ball significantly more this week after that embarrassment of a gameplan last week, but I don’t think it’ll matter. I’ll lay the TD with the Chiefs in a high scoring game.

Picks: Chiefs -7 (Deadbolt), OVER 54 (Deadbolt)

Titans (-7) @ Jets, O/U 45

Here’s a fun stat 3 weeks into the season: 23 of the 32 NFL teams entered this week averaging 20+points in each of their 3 games to start the season. The Jets have 20 points scored total through 3 games. That’s less than ideal for sure, and the reason I feel great laying the TD with the Titans.

Picks: Titans -7 (Fort Knox), UNDER 45 (Padlock)

Texans @ Bills (-16), O/U 47

After Week 1, the Texans were looking surprisingly great, and the Bills had all of their offseason hype diminished to a hush. That proves how much Week 1 lies in the NFL. As long as Tyrod Taylor is out, the Texans will not do much at all. And the Bills have outscored their last two opponents by a whopping 57 points. I’ll lay the points with the Bills here.

Picks: Bills -16 (Deadbolt), OVER 47 (Padlock)

Giants @ Saints (-8), O/U 43

THE SAINTS ARE NOT GOOD. Yes, they annihilated the Packers in Week 1, Yes, they convincingly beat the Patriots on the road last week. Yes, this game is their home opener and that dome will be rocking. But this game will be a lot closer than many think. I expect the desperate Giants to battle. I expect it to be a defensive struggle both ways. I don’t expect many points to be scored, and in that type of a game, I’ll gladly take the points. Give me the Giants.

Picks: Giants +8 (Fort Knox), UNDER 43 (Padlock)

Panthers @ Cowboys (-4), O/U 50.5

The Panthers look awesome, they really do. Their defense flies all over the field. Sam Darnold keeps making Jets fans cry even without taking a snap for them. And DJ Moore may be the most underrated WR in football. But man is this a tough game to pick. They lost their rookie corner, they lost CMC (again…), and they match up against a hot Cowboys team on the road. Dak and that offense were clicking last week, but it’s been the defense the past two weeks that has truly made this team a threat in the NFC. I think the defense will falter a bit here in a close, high scoring affair, so give me the Panthers with the points.

Picks: Panthers +4 (Padlock), OVER (Deadbolt)

Browns (-2) @ Vikings, O/U 52

Two teams coming off of strong, double digit wins last week. I like both of these teams, but in completely different tiers. The Browns should continue to be a powerhouse all season long, whereas the Vikings will likely have games where they look unbeatable, and others where they fall flat. That’s been Kirk Cousins career in a nutshell. I expect this to be one where they fall flat, so give me the Browns laying the points.

Picks: Browns -2 (Padlock), OVER 52 (Deadbolt)

Football Team (-1) @ Falcons, O/U 47

Umm, wasn’t Washington’s defense supposed to be good? Because they’ve allowed the 4th highest points scored in the league so far. That’s been the main reason this team has fallen well below expectations through 3 weeks. That’s not to say they can’t figure it out. This is a game where they need to do just that as they go up against the Falcons who, to their credit, grinded out a nice road win last week, but otherwise have not impressed. I’ll go with Washington in this one, simply because they need this one… badly.

Picks: Football Team -1 (Padlock), UNDER 47 (Padlock)

Colts @ Dolphins (-2), O/U 42.5

A true coin toss of a game between two double-digit win teams from a season ago who have begun this season sluggishly (to say the least). I’m bailing on both of these teams for the most part. The Colts might be without Quenton Nelson, but even with him, that offense hasn’t looked good. The Dolphins have been equally unimpressive, with or without Tua. I’m just going with the home team here, so give me the Dolphins.

Picks: Dolphins -2 (Deadbolt), OVER 42.5 (Padlock)

Lions @ Bears (-3), O/U 42

The Lions outplayed the Ravens last week. I’m not sure how, I’m not sure if that level of defense is sustainable for them, but that’s what happened. The Bears are an absolute mess. What’s going on at QB for them? Why does Matt Nagy still have a job? I have no confidence picking them against anyone right now, especially as a favorite. Give me the field goal with the Lions.

Picks: Lions +3 (Deadbolt), OVER 42 (Padlock)

Cardinals @ Rams (-4), O/U 55

What a thriller this one should be. The Cardinals have looked every bit of a true playoff contender so far this season. Kyler Murray and that offense are clicking, in every way. They’ve got genuine, well-deserved hype surrounding them right now. But they’re facing the Rams this week. Matthew Stafford and this offense look absolutely unstoppable. Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey are still on the other side of the ball. I’m all in on this Rams team. I’ll lay the points with them.

Picks: Rams -4 (Padlock), UNDER 55 (Padlock)

Seahawks @ 49ers (-3), O/U 51.5

Two NFC West division games! What a fantastic late slate of games. These two teams always battle. Both of them are coming off of losses last week (the Seahawks losers of 2 straight). Both of them have sky-high expectations, but are both in danger of missing the playoffs altogether as they play in such a tough division. Ultimately, I’m going with the more desperate team, with the better QB, getting the points, and that’s the Seahawks.

Picks: Seahawks +3 (Deadbolt), UNDER 51.5 (Padlock)

Ravens @ Broncos (-1), O/U 44.5

The Ravens caught a few breaks last week as they grabbed a very undeserving win against one of the bottom teams in the NFL. Still, I chalk that up to them feeling themselves a bit after beating the Chiefs the week before in primetime. This is a good team, particularly on defense. They do so many things on that side of the ball that I expect to limit this Denver offense. I don’t know if they’ll score many points, in part due to Denver’s solid defense but also due to their offense not being that great, but I still feel really good picking the Ravens as an underdog to the Broncos. Give me Baltimore.

Picks: Ravens +1 (Deadbolt), UNDER 44.5 (Deadbolt)

Steelers @ Packers (-6.5), O/U 46

Lock. Lock. Lock. This is really simple: the Steelers absolutely stink, the Packers are very good. Don’t overcomplicate this one. I don’t care who suits up for the Steelers, it doesn’t matter. The Packers offense is clicking and will continue to put points. The Steelers and Big Ben have major issues on offense and will not put up a lot of points. Give me the Packers laying the points.

Picks: Packers -6.5 (Fort Knox), OVER 46 (Deadbolt)

Buccaneers (-6.5) @ Patriots, O/U 49

It’s here! It’s finally here! The game that every football fan had circled on their calendar since the 2021 schedule was released is here. Tom Brady goes back to Foxboro to duel it out will Bill Belichick. Could it get any better than this? Yes, yes it could. It would be a lot better if the Patriots were any good, which they’re not. I respect Belichick enough to think he’ll have a gameplan for Brady, and this defense should compete. But this game will not be close. I’d be shocked if the Patriots crack double digits on the offensive side of the ball. I’ll take the Bucs laying the points.

Picks: Buccaneers -6.5 (Deadbolt), UNDER 49 (Deadbolt)

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Craig Ebinger

I like sports. I’m very opinionated. I like sharing my opinions and arguing senselessly with anyone who wants to argue.