Sunday Locks (NFL Week 5)
Jets @ Falcons (-3), O/U 45
I love these London games. Waking up, not having to wait too long for a game, this must be what living on the West Coast feels like. Some may look at this game and say it stinks because these teams are both terrible. I choose to look at it as a game between two evenly matched teams. The Falcons being without Calvin Ridley made me switch my pick here. When you’re as bad as they are, losing your best playmaker is tough to overcome. And this Jets team may be equally as bad on offense, but they’ve shown a decent defense to start this season. I’ll take the points with the Jets in low-scoring close one.
Picks: Jets +3 (Deadbolt), UNDER 45 (Deadbolt)
Dolphins @ Buccaneers (-9.5), O/U 48
The Dolphins are awful. The Bucs are very good. Let’s get that out of the way because both of those facts are contradicted by the rest of my logic here and my pick. The Bucs played a team, and coaching staff, that was very familiar with Tom Brady last week, and it showed as their offense struggled. This week, they get the Dolphins, coached by Brian Flores, who is also very familiar with what Tom Brady likes to do. I expect them to also keep this game low-scoring and close, and in a game like that, 9.5 is just too many points. Give me the Dolphins with the points.
Picks: Dolphins +9.5 (Padlock), UNDER 48 (Padlock)
Packers (-2.5) @ Bengals, O/U 50.5
The only thing giving me any sort of pause with this game is how obvious the pick seems to be, making me feel like the sportsbooks know something I don’t (which is likely). That being said, the Packers are an elite team. They just are. Their offense is incredible. Their defense is good enough. They’re simply very good. And I don’t think the Bengals are as good as their record indicates. I get that they’re home and coming off of a Thursday game so had extra time to prepare. But 2.5 points is nothing for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers to cover. Give me the Packers.
Picks: Packers -2.5 (Fort Knox), OVER 50.5 (Deadbolt)
Titans (-4.5) @ Jaguars, O/U 49
After a disastrous performance last week without their 2 star WRs, it looks like the Titans will be getting one of them back. That should be enough to easily handle the Jaguars, a team that is a complete mess, both on the field and off of it. Urban Meyer has lost control. I have zero confidence in this team truly playing for him. How can you pick a team like that any week? I can’t do it. I’ll lay the points with the Titans.
Picks: Titans -4.5 (Deadbolt), OVER 49 (Deadbolt)
Eagles @ Panthers (-3), O/U 44
The Eagles tricked me with their win in Week 1. I’ll admit it. I started to think they were actually going to be competitive this year. That is not the case. And the Panthers are actually a good team, despite losing their first game last week. It doesn’t look like CMC will return this week, but that shouldn’t matter. I’ll lay the field goal with the Panthers.
Picks: Panthers -3 (Padlock), OVER 44 (Padlock)
Patriots (-9) @ Texans, O/U 39.5
Ugly game. Two rookie QBs on bad teams going head to head. And on top of that, it looks like the Patriots will be without 80% of their starting o-line. That fact made this decision easier for me. 9 points is way too much to ever lay with the Patriots to begin with, especially now. I’ll take the Texans with the points.
Picks: Texans +9 (Deadbolt), UNDER 39.5 (Padlock)
Lions @ Vikings (-10), O/U 49.5
Speaking on injuries to the o-line, the only strength of this Lions team is in trouble this week. Still without Taylor Decker, the best player on the Lions team, their center Frank Ragnow, was placed on the IR, and rookie Penei Sewell is banged up too (although may play). On top of that, their best pass rusher Romeo Okwara is out for the year, and their only skill players of note on offense are all banged up and questionable. Give me the Vikings laying the points here. I’m not sure how the Lions will score.
Picks: Vikings -10 (Padlock), UNDER 49.5 (Deadbolt)
Saints (-2.5) @ Football Team, O/U 43.5
The Saints are not a good team. Neither are the Football Team. I may be a sucker for this, but I still can’t understand why Washington’s defense has played so bad. I’ll believe in them one more week, and take the points with the home team here.
Picks: Football Team +2.5 (Deadbolt), UNDER 43.5 (Deadbolt)
Broncos @ Steelers (-1), O/U 39.5
I don’t think the Broncos are a great team, but I certainly don’t think they’re a bad team, despite a poor showing last week. I do think the Steelers are a bad team. Ben Roethlisberger is toast, and quite frankly, it’s been sad to watch. This is a tricky game to pick though with the Steelers being at home and desperate, but I’m still going to go with the Broncos here.
Picks: Broncos +1 (Padlock), OVER 39.5 (Padlock)
Bears @ Raiders (-5), O/U 44.5
Is this the official start of the Justin Fields era now that he’s been named the full time starter? I’m not sure. Regardless, I expect the Raiders defense, particularly their d-line, to cause the Bears’ offense troubles. I think the Raiders showed that their more of a middle-of-the-pack team than an elite one last week, but that should be enough here. I’ll lay the points with the Raiders.
Picks: Raiders -5 (Deadbolt), UNDER 44.5 (Deadbolt)
Browns @ Chargers (-2), O/U 47
What a great game this is. I’m a huge fan of both of these teams. The Browns have not looked spectacular, mostly on offense, this season, but they have talent all over the field. The injury news on Baker Mayfield are mildly concerning, but for a run-first offense, they should be fine. The Chargers looked absolutely dominant for most of the game last Monday night. I think the world may be overhyping Justin Herbert a bit, but he’s still quite the talent so early in his career. I’ll lay the points with the Chargers here.
Picks: Chargers -2 (Deadbolt), UNDER 47 (Deadbolt)
Giants @ Cowboys (-7), O/U 52.5
NFC East battle. In these games, I typically take the underdog with the points here in a low scoring game, and this game is no different. Yes, I’m a believer in this Cowboys team. They’re very good. But I genuinely think this Giants team is better than many give them credit for. Daniel Jones is playing good football, Saquon is rounding into form, and they play hard. Coming off their first win of the season, give me the points with the Giants.
Picks: Giants +7 (Deadbolt), UNDER 52.5 (Deadbolt)
49ers @ Cardinals (-5), O/U 49
Trey Lance vs. Kyler Murray. That has a good ring to it for the next decade twice a year. 49ers fans certainly hope so. I’m not that high on the 49ers. Yes, I think Lance gives that offense an added element that Jimmy G didn’t, but there’s a reason rookie QBs have had such little success to start this season. It’s tough to play QB in this league. Still, this seems like a great opportunity to take the points with a desperate football team playing against an undefeated team possibly feeling themselves a little too much. Give me the 49ers here.
Picks: 49ers +5 (Padlock), UNDER 49 (Padlock)
Bills @ Chiefs (-3), O/U 56
It may not generate the buzz that last week’s Sunday night game got, but it’s certainly a better matchup. This is a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship game, and is likely the current favorite for this year’s. The Bills, deservingly so, have incredible hype surrounding them. They’re simply annihilating teams. On the other hand, the Chiefs do not look good, particularly on defense. But this is still the Chiefs. They likely realize the importance of winning some of these games, both from a general feel standpoint, and from the standpoint of they’re in last place in a very tough division. I’m taking the points with the Bills here, simply because I expect it to be close.
