Sunday Locks (NFL Week 6)
Dolphins (-3) @ Jaguars, O/U 47
For the 2nd straight week, football fans are gifted with a 9:30 a.m. game, but forced to watch two awful teams. Bad football is better than no football though, so I’m still excited by this game. I’m completely anti-Jaguars at this point. I don’t know if they’ll win a game this year. I also think the Dolphins are one of the worst teams in the league, but I’ll lay the field goal with them here in an ugly game.
Picks: Dolphins -3 (Padlock), UNDER 47 (Padlock)
Chiefs (-6.5) @ Football Team, O/U 54.5
The last time the Chiefs found themselves below .500, they put up 42 points against an NFC East team and won by double digits. I envision the same thing happening here. All of this talk about Patrick Mahomes not being the best QB in the league anymore is complete silliness. Yes, there are some other elite, young QBs in the league right now. But Patrick Mahomes is still the top dog. He’ll show that this week against a Washington defense that can’t stop anyone. I’ll lay the points with the Chiefs.
Picks: Chiefs -6.5 (Padlock), OVER 54.5 (Deadbolt)
Rams (-8) @ Giants, O/U 48.5
All of the injuries suffered by the Giants last week had this line moving all over the place this week. I saw it as high as -11 at one point. It looks like Daniel Jones will play, which is probably most reflective of the line dropping a bit. I don’t think it matters. The Rams should have no problem winning this one by double digits. I’ll take the Rams.
Picks: Rams -8 (Deadbolt), UNDER 48.5 (Deadbolt)
Packers (-5.5) @ Bears, O/U 44.5
The NFL’s oldest rivalry. I had this one as a tight one all week in my head. I respect the rivalry. I respect the Bears defense. And I respect the fact that despite my feelings on this team, the Bears are 3–2 and may actually be a competitive team. And then backup RB Damien Williams, who is starting in place of the injured David Montgomery, was ruled out. Without a running game, I don’t foresee the Bears offense being all that competitive against what’s turning out to be a pretty good Packers defense. And we know Aaron Rodgers will put up some points. I’ll lay the points with the Packers here.
Picks: Packers -5.5 (Padlock), UNDER 44.5 (Padlock)
Texans @ Colts (-10), O/U 43.5
The Colts had me fooled for three quarters on Monday night. They actually looked like the competent football team that many envisioned them to be entering this season. But then they blew it, much like the Texans who also blew a double digit lead late last week. I think both of these teams are garbage, and although I could see the Colts actually figuring it out and making a run at some point this season, 10 points is just too many to lay on them this week. Give me the Texans.
Picks: Texans +10 (Padlock), OVER 43.5 (Deadbolt)
Chargers @ Ravens (-2.5), O/U 51
I do not get this line at all. I’ve been down on the Ravens all year, and I get that I may be alone in that. To Lamar’s credit, he’s coming off of his best game throwing the football in his young NFL career. But this Ravens team was clearly the worse team last week against the Colts for most of that game. On the other hand, the Chargers have been incredibly impressive all season. Yes, they gave up 42 points to the Browns, but they also put up 47. That was just a wild game. This offense is as close to unstoppable as there is right now, and I just don’t know if the Ravens will be able to hang with them. I’m going with the Chargers here and feeling great about getting points as well.
Picks: Chargers +2.5 (Fort Knox), OVER 51 (Deadbolt)
Bengals (-3.5) @ Lions, O/U 48
I’m on board that the Bengals are not a bad football team. I’m not convinced they’re a playoff team, but I don’t think they’re bad. I also am convinced that this Lions team may be the team in the league who plays the most above their collective talent level. They’re two ridiculous endings away from being 2–3. I’m not sure the Lions will win, but giving them more than a field goal at home against a mediocre team is enough to make me pick them this week.
Picks: Lions +3.5 (Deadbolt), UNDER 48 (Deadbolt)
Vikings (-2.5) @ Panthers, O/U 45.5
Here’s another game that I simply don’t understand the line. The Vikings are an average team, just like the Panthers are. The Panthers are home. This seems to be a game where the line clearly should be a point or two on the home team. But it’s the opposite. It seems like these games typically are a trap designed to get the public onto one side, only to crush everyone. I’m still falling for it. Give me the home team.
Picks: Panthers +2.5 (Padlock), OVER 45.5 (Padlock)
Cardinals @ Browns (-3), O/U 49.5
What a great game that’s being spoiled by injuries and Covid affecting both sides. The loss of Nick Chubb for the Browns is probably the most significant loss, but Chandler Jones being out for the Cardinals can’t be overlooked, not to mention their head coach. The Cardinals are very good, but they have to lose eventually. I think it’ll be this week. I’ll lay the field goal with the Browns.
Picks: Browns -3 (Padlock), UNDER 49.5 (Padlock)
Cowboys (-3) @ Patriots, O/U 50.5
Why in the world is this spread only 3 points? I don’t agree with a few lines this week, but none more than this one. I’m not even that high on the Cowboys, but even I’ll admit they’re a very good football team. The Patriots absolutely stink. This feels like another game that the line is purposely trying to force the public to one side, just to bamboozle everyone. And yes, I am falling for this one too, and can’t wait to be bamboozled. I’m taking the Cowboys.
Picks: Cowboys -3 (Deadbolt), OVER 50.5 (Padlock)
Raiders @ Broncos (-3.5), O/U 44.5
The post-Jon Gruden era will officially begin this week. I don’t have much analysis on this game. I think both of these teams are middle of the road teams that will be in the Wild Card conversation for much of the year. It’s tough to know for sure how the Raiders players will handle Gruden being gone, and that’s enough for me to side with the home team here. I’m taking the Broncos.
Picks: Broncos -3.5 (Padlock), OVER 44.5 (Padlock)
Seahawks @ Steelers (-5.5), O/U 42.5
NBC must be fuming that their primetime game this week features an aging, boring Ben Roethlisberger and Geno Smith. I really didn’t love the Seahawks with Russell Wilson, and I won’t be fooled by what was sincerely an impressive performance in relief last week out of Geno. I also really hate the Steelers. I think they’re awful. But… it’s a home primetime game. I respect Mike Tomlin and the Steelers organization. I’ll lay the points with the home team.
