Sunday Locks (NFL Week 7)
Football Team @ Packers (-8), O/U 47.5
Easy game here. Washington stinks, it’s official. Heinicke had his 15 minutes of fame, but it’s clear he’s not reliable for long stretches. And their defense has arguably been the single most disappointing unit in the league this year. Oh, and the Packers are really good at scoring points on anyone. They’ll score enough here to cover. I’ll lay the points with the home team.
Picks: Packers -8 (Deadbolt), OVER 47.5 (Deadbolt)
Jets @ Patriots (-7), O/U 42.5
I find it odd that these two teams will have played both of their games against each other by Week 7, but here we are. The first go around, the Patriots made Zach Wilson look foolish multiple times. While I expect similar results from their offense here, I don’t think the Patriots are good enough to be laying 7 points to anyone, so I’m going with the Jets here.
Picks: Jets +7 (Padlock), UNDER 42.5 (Deadbolt)
Chiefs (-4.5) @ Titans, O/U 57.5
The Chiefs figured it out (finally) in the 2nd half last week on both sides of the ball. I expect the offensive momentum to continue into this week, but I am still enamored by Derrick Henry, AJ Brown, Julio Jones and this Titans offense. I don’t think either defense gets a stop all day, and I’ll take the Titans getting the points.
Picks: Titans +4.5 (Deadbolt), OVER 57.5 (Deadbolt)
Bengals @ Ravens (-6.5), O/U 46
The Bengals are actually good. Get that through your head. They have a solid defense, particularly against the run. Offensively, they are balanced and get the ball out of their QB’s hand quickly enough to mask some deficiencies on that o-line. Yes, I am finally on board that the Ravens are also good, but 6.5 is a lot of points for a division game. Plus, the public is probably all over the Ravens following that incredible performance last week. I’ll take the points with the Bengals.
Picks: Bengals +6.5 (Deadbolt), OVER 46 (Padlock)
Panthers (-2.5) @ Giants, O/U 42
I hate to say it, but I think the Giants are toast. Injuries are one thing, but they showed zero fight last week, and the team may be bailing on their coach. The Panthers enter this game on a 3-game losing streak, following an equally long winning streak to begin the season. That’s who they are: an average football team. In Sam Darnold’s return to Metlife, I’m laying the points with the Panthers.
Picks: Panthers -2.5 (Deadbolt), OVER 42 (Padlock)
Falcons (-2) @ Dolphins, O/U 48
It’s official: the Dolphins are one of the worst teams in the league. They just are. The Falcons are also a bad team, but following their bye week, I respect Matt Ryan enough to think he’ll find ways to pick apart this defense with a banged up secondary. I’ll lay the points with the Falcons.
Picks: Falcons -2 (Deadbolt), UNDER 48 (Padlock)
Lions @ Rams (-16), O/U 50.5
The Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff revenge game. Unfortunately, that’s about the only thing that’ll make this game interesting for maybe a quarter. The Lions have been decimated by injuries, and last week was the first week this season where they showed absolutely no fight. I expect them to battle more, but at some point in this game, the talent disparity will become apparent. Matthew Stafford will be let loose to carve up his former team, and Aaron Donald will make Jared Goff’s day miserable. I’ll lay the points confidently with the home team.
Picks: Rams -16 (Fort Knox), UNDER 50.5 (Deadbolt)
Eagles @ Raiders (-2.5), O/U 48.5
Is this a trap? The Raiders clearly showed last week that they’re a decent football team that will fight for their interim coach, and won’t let the Gruden drama distract them. The Eagles are a terrible football team with a terrible coach and offensive gameplan. Why in the world are the Raiders only giving 2.5 points at home here? I have no clue, and I may be falling for the trap, but I’m laying the points with the silver and black.
Picks: Raiders -2.5 (Fort Knox), UNDER 48.5 (Padlock)
Bears @ Buccaneers (-13), O/U 47
Yes, the Bears hung tight last week against the Packers. Yes, their defense is at times very tough. Yes, the Bears beat the Buccaneers last season in perhaps their worst game of the season. That last part is why I’m going with the Buccaneers here. Tom Brady doesn’t forget things. He’s figured out what needed to be done in that game last year, and I expect him to move this offense quite efficiently this year. That, combined with no confidence in the Bears offense to do anything against the Bucs defense, and I’ll lay this massive amount of points with the Bucs.
Picks: Buccaneers -13 (Padlock), UNDER 47 (Deadbolt)
Texans @ Cardinals (-18.5), O/U 47.5
Speaking of laying massive amounts of points… 18.5?! That seems excessive. I get it though. The Texans are horrible. The Cardinals are undefeated and play the Packers on Thursday night. Could this be a trap game for them? Absolutely it could, but I don’t think so. I’ll lay the points with Arizona here and hope for them to not let up.
Picks: Cardinals -18.5 (Padlock), OVER 47.5 (Padlock)
Colts @ 49ers (-4), O/U 42.5
A sneaky good Sunday night team between two sub .500 teams. It feels almost like a must win for the 49ers coming off of their bye. Unfortunately for them, I think this game is a tight one, and wouldn’t be surprised if the Colts pull off the win. I get that last week’s blowout was against the Texans, but if you look at the last two weeks for the Colts, they’ve been dominant for 7 of 8 quarters of football. The Colts are solid against the run, which is what the Niners want to establish. They’ll try to make Jimmy G beat them, which I’m not sure if he’s capable of. I’ll take the points with the Colts.
