Sunday Locks (NFL Week 9)

Bills (-14.5) @ Jaguars, O/U 48.5

Not a lot to say about this game. The Bills are the only true Super Bowl contender in the AFC. The Jaguars are in line for another top 3 pick. I don’t think the Bills overlook them here, and I don’t think this will be particularly competitive. I’ll lay the points with the Bills.

Picks: Bills -14.5 (Deadbolt), OVER 48.5 (Padlock)

Broncos @ Cowboys (-10), O/U 49.5

Dak’s playing in this one, and that’s enough for me to be confident in this pick. The Broncos are a bad football team. By trading away their best player in Von Miller, they all confirmed that the rest of this season will be full of plenty of losses as they look to the future. And the Cowboys are absolutely rolling, both offensively and defensively. No reason to think this game will be close. I’ll take the Cowboys.

Picks: Cowboys -10 (Deadbolt), UNDER 49.5 (Padlock)

Vikings @ Ravens (-6), O/U 50

Tough game to pick here. The Vikings looked so bad last week, but that’s what they do… every year. Kirk Cousins puts up a stinker, typically in primetime, and then follows it up with a 300 yard, 3 TD performance and everyone gets enamored with the talent on this team again. So the pick should be the Vikings, right? Nope, because the last time we saw the Ravens, they themselves were getting embarrassed by the Bengals. So I expect them to have had a very productive bye week and come out and put it on the Vikings here. Give me the Ravens.

Picks: Ravens -6 (Padlock), UNDER 50 (Padlock)

Raiders (-3) @ Giants, O/U 46

The Giants had a bunch of Covid scares this week that nearly made this game unwatchable. Fortunately that all turned out to be a bunch of false positives. The Raiders, who handled the Jon Gruden drama incredibly well by getting two wins, got dealt another gut punch this week when Henry Ruggs made the boneheaded decision to get behind the wheel of a car and go 150+ MPH while drunk. USE THE DAMN CAR SERVICE!!! I will never understand the stupidity of some of these athletes. As far as the game goes, I think the Raiders will struggle to adjust this week without their top deep threat. I’m picking the Giants with the points here.

Picks: Giants +3 (Padlock), UNDER 46 (Deadbolt)

Patriots (-3.5) @ Panthers, O/U 41

I hate to admit it, but that was an incredibly impressive win by the Patriots last week. I was close to picking against them again this week, as has been my tendency, and feeling pretty good about it. Then I remembered that if Sam Darnold starts, he’ll likely see ghosts again against Belichick’s defense, and if PJ Walker starts, Belichick will probably have his way even more. Give me the Patriots.

Picks: Patriots -3.5 (Deadbolt), OVER 41 (Padlock)

Falcons @ Saints (-6.5), O/U 41.5

Speaking of a team I’ve loved picking against… the Saints also got a great win last week. I’m not sure how much losing Jameis Winston will impact them to be honest. This team is built to get the ball to Alvin Kamara and play great defense. They can still do that without Jameis. But divisional games are always tricky. I see this one as close and low scoring, so give me the points with the Falcons.

Picks: Falcons +6.5 (Padlock), OVER 41.5 (Padlock)

Browns @ Bengals (-2.5), O/U 47

Odell is finally gone. Good riddance. What an annoying person. Drama just surrounds him wherever he goes. He’s the Kyrie Irving of the NFL. I think this galvanizes this team that won a ton of games without him last year. I expect them to run a little harder for Baker this week. I expect them to block a little longer. I expect them to hit a little harder. I’m taking the Browns here.

Picks: Browns +2.5 (Padlock), UNDER 47 (Deadbolt)

Texans @ Dolphins (-5.5), O/U 46

These two teams enter this Week 9 matchup with a combined 2 wins. Yikes. But this game is easy for me to pick. The Dolphins are a bad football team. There’s no doubt about that. They’re arguably the biggest disappointment on the season. The Texans are also a bad team. Also, there’s no doubt about that. But, Tyrod Taylor is returning. He led the Texans to their only win of the season back in Week 1, and was tracking towards potentially winning back to back games until his injury knocked him out in Week 2. I’ve got no problem taking the Texans here getting 5.5 points.

Picks: Texans +5.5 (Deadbolt), OVER 46 (Deadbolt)

Chargers (-2) @ Eagles, O/U 49.5

The Chargers have been eating some humble pie recently as they’ve lost two straight games where they did not look good whatsoever. This is all after the public had seemingly crowned them, and more specifically Justin Herbert. Those back to back losses, combined with the Eagles dominating performance last week, have me feeling great about going the opposite way here. I’ll take the Chargers.

Picks: Chargers -2 (Fort Knox), OVER 49.5 (Padlock)

Packers @ Chiefs (-7.5), O/U 48.5

The State Farm bowl lost essentially all of its luster with Aaron Rodgers getting Covid, and being exposed as a liar, this week. The Jordan Love era will get a bit of a preview here. What intrigues me most about this game is what happens if Love performs well? Will the Packers use that and try to move on from him in the offseason in an attempt to extend Rodgers’ career in Green Bay? Only time will tell. Back to the game in question… I am convinced that the Chiefs are not a very good football team. They have serious issues on offense, and it’s been well-documented how badly they’ve played on defense (to their credit, the defense played well last week). But for whatever reason, they simply refuse to run the ball or take short passes, and Patrick Mahomes seemingly does not know how to play fundamental football. I’m going with the Packers here. They impressed me enough last week on the ground and defensively to make me think this one will be low scoring and close.

Picks: Packers +7.5 (Padlock), UNDER 48.5 (Deadbolt)

Cardinals @ 49ers (-2), O/U 45

Who suits up for this game, and plays more than just a few plays during it, will have a huge impact on this game. The 49ers defense always plays them tough normally, but if the Cardinals are without Murray and Hopkins, I don’t think they have a chance here. I like the 49ers in this one.

Picks: 49ers -2 (Deadbolt), UNDER 45 (Deadbolt)

Titans @ Rams (-7), O/U 52.5

The Rams took the biggest swing at the deadline by acquiring Von Miller to pair with their already star-studded defense, and overall roster. I don’t think he’ll be suiting up this week, but the Rams shouldn’t need him to beat the Titans who lost Derrick Henry. What a devastating loss. I can see Adrian Peterson filling in nicely for them, but the Rams have so much talent on both sides of the ball. They’ll win this one easily. I’ll lay the points with the Rams.

Picks: Rams -7 (Deadbolt), UNDER 52.5 (Padlock)

Zack Nicol and I have partnered to do a head to head challenge every week called LOCK OFF. We’ll pick 4 of our favorite spreads and battle it out.

This week’s LOCK OFF picks:

Zack Nicol: Bills -14.5, Saints -6, Raiders -3.5, Rams -7

Craig Ebinger: Chargers -1.5, Bills -14.5, Cowboys -10, Texans +6