Sunday Locks: Week 1
“Padlock” means a pick I’d make if forced to make a pick but one I’m not super confident about.
“Deadbolt” means a pick I like and feel good about.
“Fort Knox” means a pick I absolutely LOVE.
Here are your locks!
Saints (-5.5) @ Falcons, O/U 43
Week 1 is always tricky, particularly with division games. That being said, I really like this Saints team and feel confident that the Falcons will be picking in the top 5 in next year’s draft. Michael Thomas is back. So is Jameis. If it were any other week other than Week 1, I’d likely feel more confident about this, but I’m rolling with the Saints giving the points on the road in a game that goes over the total points.
Picks: Saints -5.5 (Padlock), OVER 43 (Padlock)
49ers (-7) @ Bears, O/U 40.5
Another game here to start the season between a road team I like and a home team I expect to be picking in the top 5 (which is a theme of this week). It’s tough to feel confident making this pick considering how little we know about Trey Lance and what this 49ers offense could look like. What I do feel confident about is how bad the Bears o-line appears to be and that the 49ers d-line should make life extremely difficult for Justin Fields. That’s why I’m giving the points with the 49ers. I’ll take the over as well.
Picks: 49ers -7 (Padlock), OVER 40.5 (Padlock)
Steelers @ Bengals (-6.5), O/U 44
Combining the potential for a Super Bowl hangover with the fact that none of their starters played at all during preseason leads me to expect a slow start for the reigning AFC champs. On the other side, the Mitch Trubisky-led Steelers played a ton of their starters this preseason. In a division game, I’ll simply take the points with the underdog in a low scoring game.
Picks: Steelers +6.5 (Deadbolt), UNDER 44 (Padlock)
Eagles (-5) @ Lions, O/U 48.5
Last season, this exact matchup was an annihilation with the Eagles running the Lions out of their own building in a 44–6 win. While that could certainly repeat itself considering the Eagles ground game looks to be elite once again and the Lions have many questions on the interior defensively, I expect a tight matchup. The Lions offense is surprisingly well-equipped, so they just need Jared Goff to be remotely competent and they should put up points. And Ford Field is going to be absolutely rocking with the excitement this fan base, and many others around the country, has for this team. I’ll take the points with the Lions in a high scoring affair.
Picks: Lions +5 (Padlock), OVER 48.5 (Fort Knox)
Patriots @ Dolphins (-3), O/U 46.5
The Dolphins made a big splash in adding Tyreek Hill this offseason. But until I see Tua get it to him, I’m still skeptical of the Dolphins being a true threat in the AFC. That being said, I have zero optimism surrounding the Patriots offense, which is being led by Matt Patricia and Joe Judge, so I really don’t feel good picking this one. I’ll simply take the field goal with the road team in a low scoring, division game.
Picks: Patriots +3 (Padlock), UNDER 46.5 (Deadbolt)
Ravens (-6.5) @ Jets, O/U 44
To me, this game has the makings of a Lamar Jackson-takeover game. He’s back after being injured last season. He wasn’t able to get his long-term deal done. His roster is much healthier than it was last season. And he’s playing the Jets. It feels like the perfect storm for Lamar to absolutely erupt. I expect the Ravens to put up some major points here. I’ll lay the points with the Ravens along with the over.
Picks: Ravens -6.5 (Deadbolt), OVER 44 (Deadbolt)
Jaguars @ Commanders (-2.5), O/U 44
Doug Pederson has a new team in the Jaguars and a new toy in Trevor Lawrence. People seem to forget how much hype surrounded this game before Urban Meyer did his absolute best to ruin his rookie year. The Jaguars might be exciting this season, with a stable coach, Lawrence in year 2, and Travis Etienne healthy. I do think Carson Wentz is an upgrade for the Commanders, but with no Chase Young, I’ll take the points with the Jaguars here along with the over.
Picks: Jaguars +2.5 (Deadbolt), OVER 44 (Deadbolt)
Browns @ Panthers (pk), O/U 42
How perfect is it that after what Baker Mayfield went through this offseason, that he gets to open up against his former team? I love it. I like Jacoby Brissett to be functional enough to do well with this Browns team that should still be relatively competitive until Deshaun Watson returns. But I simply have to pick Baker here. That guy wants this game so badly, and I think he’s better than a lot of people give him credit for. Oh, and the Panthers have a healthy CMC. Give me the over too.
Picks: Panthers (Deadbolt), OVER 42 (Padlock)
Colts (-7) @ Texans, O/U 46
Another road team I like and home team that stinks. But this is a lot of points, and I expect the Texans to battle all season long. To me, this game seems like a lobsided affair with the Colts in total control for 3 and a half quarters, only to allow Davis Mills to lead a couple late drives for a backdoor cover. I’ll take the points with the Texans along with the over.
Picks: Texans +7 (Padlock), OVER 46 (Padlock)
Giants @ Titans (-5.5), O/U 44
The last time we saw the Titans, Ryan Tannehill was throwing the ball to the defense time and time again. Yes, Derrick Henry is back. But with no AJ Brown and no Julio Jones, I wouldn’t be surprised if there were 8 in the box the entire game. And despite their deficiencies, the Giants have a new coach and have to have a sense of optimism about their upcoming season, at least on the offensive side of the ball. I’ll take the points and the over.
Picks: Giants +5.5 (Padlock), OVER 44 (Deadbolt)
Packers (-1.5) @ Vikings, O/U 46.5
Yikes. First Davante leaves. Now, it looks like Allen Lazard is out. I get that Aaron Rodgers is otherwordly, but that’s quite the uphill battle for him. That being said, the Packers RB duo is arguably the best in the league, as is their defense. The Vikings do play extremely well against the Packers though. And last season’s opener still sticks in my mind for the Packers where they were embarrassed by the Saints. I’ll take the home team with the points here in a low scoring game.
Picks: Vikings +1.5 (Deadbolt), UNDER 46.5 (Deadbolt)
Chiefs (-6) @ Cardinals, O/U 54
I may regret this, but I’m very down on this Chiefs team entering this season. I just don’t think they realize how important Tyreek Hill was to their offense. That guy is 1 of 1. He cannot be replaced. And the Cardinals have been starting hot in recent years. I get that Deandre Hopkins is out along with Rondale Moore, but this is a lot of points for the home team here. I’ll take the Cardinals with the points along with the under.
Picks: Cardinals +6 (Fort Knox), UNDER 54 (Padlock)
Raiders @ Chargers (-3.5), O/U 52.5
This is my game of the week (now that the Thursday Night game wound up being a stinker). I love both of these teams this season and both for the exact same reasons. They’re both loaded offensively and defensively have two edge guys who will destroy single blocks all game long. I expect a back and forth battle here, so give me the points with the Raiders. I’ll take the under too.
Picks: Raiders +3.5 (Deadbolt), UNDER 52.5 (Padlock)
Buccaneers (-2.5) @ Cowboys, O/U 50.5
Rule of thumb: never bet against Tom Brady. I expect to break that rule a lot this season. I’m just very down on this Bucs team. There was so much drama surrounding the GOAT all offseason. I usually don’t pay attention to that stuff. What I do pay attention to is when the interior offensive line of a team with a QB who loves to stand directly behind the center is completely decimated. And that’s what’s going on with the Bucs. So give me the Cowboys with the points in a low scoring game.
