Sunday Locks: Week 10
Seahawks @ Buccaneers (-3), O/U 44.5
Football in Germany! Nothing better than waking up to early morning football. And I think this line is completely wrong. The Seahawks are legitimately good. The Bucs are legitimately bad. Nothing is a guarantee, of course, but I feel great getting a field goal on a neutral field with the clearly better team. So I’ll take the points with the Seahawks here along with the under.
Picks: Seahawks +3 (Fort Knox), UNDER 44.5 (Deadbolt)
Vikings @ Bills (-3), O/U 42
Is Josh Allen playing? If he is, this line is way low, despite how good the Vikings have been. If he’s not, this becomes the Case Keenum revenge game, and I still like the Bills chances fresh off of their embarrassing loss last week. Playing in Buffalo is tough. The Bills have an elite defense. And Case Keenum is as good a backup as you could ask for. So I’ll roll with the Bills regardless here. I’ll take the over as well since this number looks deflated with the Allen injury and I expect Case to do just fine.
Picks: Bills -3 (Padlock), OVER 42 (Padlock)
Lions @ Bears (-3), O/U 48.5
This is a low-level big time swing game for both of these sub-.500 teams. The Lions are fresh off of an impressive victory where the youth on their defense was very impressive. A win here would mean a lot for this team, which is clearly more talented than their record indicates. A loss drops them to 2–7 and means no more meaningful football for them. On the other hand, the Justin Fields hype-train is rolling, and a win here keeps them relevant. A loss would be crushing. I expect a competitive battle and shockingly a low scoring one. So I’ll take the field goal with the Lions and the under.
Picks: Lions +3 (Deadbolt), UNDER 48.5 (Padlock)
Broncos @ Titans (-2.5), O/U 39
I expect to see a lot of defense here. The difference to me is the Broncos have an awful, identity-less offense whereas the Titans know who they are, and that’s a physical, ground and pound offense that loves these style games. I’ll lay the points with the Titans here and take the under.
Picks: Titans -2.5 (Fort Knox), UNDER 39 (Deadbolt)
Jaguars @ Chiefs (-9), O/U 51.5
I expect the Chiefs to roll here, easily. Not much more needs to be said. They’re simply better. I’ll lay the big number with the Chiefs and take the under.
Picks: Chiefs -9 (Deadbolt), UNDER 51.5 (Padlock)
Browns @ Dolphins (-3.5), O/U 49.5
This game could go 1 of 2 ways. The Browns could run it successfully down the Dolphins throat, keeping it closely contested with the Dolphins high-powered and electric offense, only to lose late to the much more talented Miami team. Or the Dolphins could get a couple stops early, score their points, and force the Browns to try to throw to keep up, which they won’t be able to do. Either way, 3.5 is not a ton of points in a game I expect to be high scoring, so give my the Dolphins and the over.
Picks: Dolphins -3.5 (Deadbolt), OVER 49.5 (Deadbolt)
Texans @ Giants (-4.5), O/U 41
I can’t get a good feel on this game. The Texans fight, and the Giants play close games. Twice I’ve flipped to the Texans, and twice I’ve flipped right back. My main reason and logic is the Giants have Saquon Barkley and a great running game, and the Texans are atrocious against the run. And I don’t think the Giants have a good enough passing game to try to do anything different, so they should have a lot of success. So I’ll lay the points with the Giants and take the under.
Picks: Giants -4.5 (Padlock), UNDER 41 (Padlock)
Saints (-1.5) @ Steelers, O/U 40
Every so often, there comes a game between two terrible teams that you just have a strong gut feeling on and not much more needs to be said. This is that game for me. I love the Steelers here. Both of these teams stink, but the Steelers are too proud of a franchise to be underdogs at home against an equally terrible team. I love that TJ Watt is coming back but this pick was made before that was even known. Give me the Steelers and the under.
Picks: Steelers +1.5 (Fort Knox), UNDER 40 (Deadbolt)
Colts @ Raiders (-4.5), O/U 41
What a week both of these teams have had. The Colts fired their coach and subsequently hired Jeff Saturday in one of the more head-scratching coaching hires of all time. Nothing against Saturday, but it’s a bizarre move. And then there’s the Raiders who had two of their offensive weapons go on IR, one of their better defensive players retire, and then Davante Adams come out and say some very questionable things. The Raiders are officially a mess. Therefore, I’ll just take the points with the Colts here and the under.
Picks: Colts +4.5 (Padlock), UNDER 41 (Fort Knox)
Cowboys (-4.5) @ Packers, O/U 44
When was the last time the Packers were underdogs at Lambeau? That’s how you know things are bad. And for good reason. The Packers are a bad team. There’s really no other way to look at it. And the Cowboys are actually a good team with a great defense. So I don’t expect the Packers to score much. That being said, I’m still not really sold on the Cowboys offense and I do think the Packers can keep this one close. So I’ll grab the points with the Packers and take the under.
Picks: Packers +4.5 (Padlock), UNDER 44 (Deadbolt)
Cardinals @ Rams (-2.5), O/U 40.5
Is Kyler playing? Is Stafford playing? Does it matter either way? I really don’t know how to feel about this game. Both of these teams stink. I can’t give too much analysis without knowing who’s playing QB, so I’ll simply pick the team with the better defense, and I think that’s the Rams. I’ll lay the points and take the under.
Picks: Rams -2.5 (Padlock), UNDER 40.5 (Padlock)
Chargers @ 49ers (-7), O/U 45
Everything in my being is telling me Chargers here. This is so many points. But I’m fighting the urge to back this team that has disappointed me so many times. The 49ers are clearly the better team. I’d go as far as to say the 49ers are the biggest threat to the Eagles in the entire NFC. They’re getting healthier. They’re fresh off of a bye. I’ll lay the points with the 49ers here and take the over.
