Nov 27, 2022
Sunday Locks: Week 12
Buccaneers (-3.5) @ Browns, O/U 42
Is it just me or does it feel like forever since we watched the Buccaneers play football? I like this spot for this team that’s looking to go on a 3-game winning streak to officially get back on track after a rough first half of the season. The Browns love to run the ball. The Buccaneers typically shut that down. I think that’ll be the difference. I’ll lay the points with the Bucs and take the under.
Picks: Buccaneers -3.5 (Deadbolt), UNDER 42 (Padlock)
Bengals (-1) @ Titans, O/U 43
GREAT game is a postseason rematch from last year where Ryan Tannehill forgot what team he was playing for. I expect points here. The Titans are good against the run, but the Bengals are built to throw (particularly with Joe Mixon out). I know Chase is still likely out, but I still expect them to air it out. I also expect Derrick Henry and the Titans to score pretty easily as well. I’ll just take the home team here and hammer the over.
Picks: Titans +1 (Padlock), OVER 43 (Fort Knox)
Texans @ Dolphins (-14), O/U 47
Double digit spreads are typically a trap. But I’m falling for it. The Texans made a change at QB, but there’s no reason to think that’ll do anything. They have success offensively if they can keep the game close and pound the rock, but the Dolphins offense can’t be stopped, so I expect this to get out of hand early. Maybe throw in a pick 6 late for the Dolphins and I love the Dolphins to cover here. I’ll take the under as well, but mostly just love the Texans team total under, since the Dolphins could approach this number by themselves.
Picks: Dolphins -14 (Fort Knox), UNDER 47 (Padlock)
Bears @ Jets (-7), O/U 38.5
The Mike White show has a sequel! This game would have a lot more intrigue if Justin Fields were playing, but it looks like Trevor Siemian is getting the nod, which just signals a blowout where the Mike White praise goes nuclear. The Bears will be lucky to touch double digits here. Fields was their whole offense. And the Jets should scrape together enough offense to cover easily. Give me the Jets and the under.
Picks: Jets -7 (Deadbolt), UNDER 38.5 (Deadbolt)
Falcons @ Commanders (-3.5), O/U 40
Quietly, this is arguably the most significant game of the day. The 5–6 Falcons are right there in the NFC, both the Wild Card race and the division. The Commanders are at 6–5, looking good, and also squarely in the Wild Card race. The winner of this game has to be feeling pretty good. I simply expect a tightly contested game, so getting more than a field goal is the play. Give me the points with the Falcons and the over.
Picks: Falcons +3.5 (Deadbolt), OVER 40 (Deadbolt)
Broncos (-1) @ Panthers, O/U 36.5
This may be the lowest total in a non-weather impacted game that I’ve ever seen. That’s what happens when two atrocious offenses play against two good (maybe even great) defenses. For the fun of it, I’ll roll with Sam Darnold and the Panthers here and take the under.
Picks: Panthers +1 (Padlock), UNDER 36.5 (Padlock)
Ravens (-3.5) @ Jaguars, O/U 43
I love the Ravens here. I’m not sure why, but it feels like they’re not getting any love when people talk about elite teams (Chiefs, Bills, Eagles) and also not getting any love when people talk about teams that are underrated in the Super Bowl conversation (Cowboys, Vikings, 49ers, Dolphins). They’re 7–3, on a 4 game winning streak, and have led by double digits in every game this season! I’ll lay the points with the Ravens and take the over, although the latter I mostly just like the Ravens team total over.
Picks: Ravens -3.5 (Fort Knox), OVER 43 (Deadbolt)
Chargers (-3) @ Cardinals, O/U 48.5
These two teams seem to mirror each other. Both of them seem to have the flash and the hype, but seem to never deliver. I have no faith in a turnaround from the Cardinals, but am still keeping the faith a bit with the Chargers. So I’ll lay the field goal with the Chargers here and take the over.
Picks: Chargers -3 (Padlock), OVER 48.5 (Padlock)
Raiders @ Seahawks (-4), O/U 47.5
After losing in Germany, the Seahawks kind of have that feel of a team that overperformed for the first half of the season and may now come back down to the life. And say what you want about the Raiders, they have the talent to play with anyone. They just stink. But I’ll take the points with the Raiders here and the over.
Picks: Raiders +4 (Padlock), OVER 47.5 (Padlock)
Rams @ Chiefs (-15.5), O/U 41.5
Another double digit spread that I love. The Rams are trash. And Stafford is out. The Chiefs should annihilate them. The only question is if they’ll take their foot off the gas to allow for a backdoor cover late. I don’t think so. The better play is probably the halftime spread for the Chiefs, but I’ll lay the big number here with the Chiefs and take the over, although the play there is probably the Chiefs team total over.
Picks: Chiefs -15.5 (Deadbolt), OVER 41.5 (Padlock)
Saints @ 49ers (-8.5), O/U 43.5
There’s a lot of ugly games on the slate this week. The Saints are bad. And the 49ers are rolling. Don’t overthink this. I’ll lay the points with the 49ers and the under.
Picks: 49ers -8.5 (Deadbolt), UNDER 43.5 (Padlock)
Packers @ Eagles (-6.5), O/U 46
I actually really like this game. The Packers are an awful football team. I want to be clear about that. But… they had extra rest, the news of Aaron Rodgers’ broken thumb came out this week, which to me seems to set up the storyline for him having a dominant performance, and they’re playing a team that has not played particularly well in a month. I don’t expect them to win, but I’ll take the points with the Packers here and the under.
