Sunday Locks: Week 13
Steelers @ Falcons (-1), O/U 43
This is likely an elimination game for the Steelers, who have been playing better ball of late. TJ Watt being back makes a world of difference. And I think that’s the difference here against a Falcons team that seemingly does not want to win the NFC South. I’ll take the Steelers and the under here.
Picks: Steelers +1 (Deadbolt), UNDER 43 (Padlock)
Packers (-4.5) @ Bears, O/U 45
Aaron Rodgers vs. Justin Fields is happening, despite injuries to both of these QBs. Aaron Rodgers should continue to own the Bears embarrassing pass defense. But as long as Fields’ injury doesn’t affect his legs too much, I expect them to keep this one close and put up their points. So I’ll take the points with the Bears and the over.
Picks: Bears +4.5 (Padlock), OVER 45 (Deadbolt)
Jaguars @ Lions (-1), O/U 51
I don’t understand this line. The Jaguars have won 2 of their last 3 and have definitely looked better of late, particularly Trevor Lawrence. But the Lions have won 3 of their last 4 with their loss coming on a last second field goal by the Bills on Thanksgiving. And the Lions are getting healthier. This team is genuinely scary and that Ford Field crowd should be electric, which could affect a young QB. I’ll hammer the Lions here and take the over as well, but mostly I just like the Lions team total over.
Picks: Lions -1 (Fort Knox), OVER 51 (Deadbolt)
Jets @ Vikings (-3), O/U 44.5
The Mike White show rolls on. This time, it’s against a much better overall team in the Vikings, but still against a pretty bad pass defense. The Vikings have not looked great of late and this Jets team is legitimately good. I expect a competitive game here and will take the field goal with the Jets along with the over since it’s 1 pm Kirk Cousins time.
Picks: Jets +3 (Padlock), OVER 44.5 (Deadbolt)
Commanders (-2) @ Giants, O/U 40.5
HUGE game in the NFC wild card race between these two NFC East teams. And they get to run it back in two weeks but in Washington. I don’t want to overthink this. Yes, the Commanders are playing good ball and the Giants are not. But that’s the only reason the Giants are getting points at home when in reality these two teams are very similar. So I’ll take the points with the home team and the under here.
Picks: Giants +2 (Deadbolt), UNDER 40.5 (Deadbolt)
Titans @ Eagles (-4.5), O/U 44
I’ve flipped back and forth on this game all week. It’s a good one. The Titans are a good football team, but they have not beaten any good teams this season. The Eagles are certainly a good team. The only question is if 4.5 is too many, since the Titans do run the ball well and the Eagles struggle a bit against that. I liked what I saw from the Eagles offense last week, so I’ll lay the number with them here and take the over.
Picks: Eagles -4.5 (Padlock), OVER 44 (Deadbolt)
Broncos @ Ravens (-9.5), O/U 39.5
I will pick against the Broncos and take the under until proven otherwise. So I’ll lay the number with the Ravens here and take the under. The best play is probably the Broncos team total under.
Picks: Ravens -9.5 (Deadbolt), UNDER 39.5 (Deadbolt)
Browns (-8) @ Texans, O/U 46.5
Deshaun Watson is back in the NFL and back playing a game in Houston. There’s no way to confidently say what’s going to happen here since it’s been 2 years since this guy has played in a real game. But he didn’t look particularly good in preseason, so I’ll take the points with the Texans here and take the under.
Picks: Texans +8 (Padlock), UNDER 46.5 (Deadbolt)
Seahawks (-7) @ Rams, O/U 41
Much like the Broncos, I will likely be picking against the Rams and likely taking the under until proven otherwise. No Kupp. No Stafford. No Allen Robinson (not that that really matters). This team has given up. I love the Seahawks here along with the under (but again, mostly the Rams team total under).
Picks: Seahawks -7 (Fort Knox), UNDER 41 (Padlock)
Dolphins @ 49ers (-4), O/U 45.5
WHAT A GAME. These are two of the hottest teams in the league right now. It wouldn’t surprise anyone if these teams wound up playing in the Super Bowl. That’s how talented they are. The Dolphins have the offense. The 49ers have the defense (along with flashy offensive players that simply haven’t fully meshed yet). I expect a competitive game, but I love the Dolphins getting more than a field goal here. And I’ll take the over.
Picks: Dolphins +4 (Fort Knox), OVER 45.5 (Deadbolt)
Chiefs (-2) @ Bengals, O/U 52.5
This 4 pm slate of games is incredible. Last season, the Bengals defeated the Chiefs twice, including to eliminate them in the AFC Championship game. And yet, they’re still home underdogs. That’s disrespectful. Both of these teams are spectacular offensively, particularly through the air. I expect a shootout, so I love the over. I’ll also take the points with the home team here.
Picks: Bengals +2 (Padlock), OVER 52.5 (Fort Knox)
Chargers @ Raiders (-2), O/U 49.5
Another sneaky good 4 pm game. The Chargers are getting healthier, sit at 6–5, and are in decent position to make a run at the playoffs. The Raiders season looked like it ended a couple weeks ago. But they’ve rattled off back to back overtime victories and should win a few more in the coming weeks. A win here and all of a sudden their playoff hopes are alive. I expect a very tight game, so give me the points with the Chargers and I’ll take the over.
Picks: Chargers +2 (Padlock), OVER 49.5 (Padlock)
Colts @ Cowboys (-10), O/U 44
The Colts have been playing much better football since the coaching change. If they want to play competitive football, it’s no secret that it’ll revolve around their o-line and Jonathan Taylor pounding the rock. That bodes well for them here against a very good Cowboys team who truly excel defensively against the pass. I don’t expect this to be a super competitive game, but double digits is far too many points in my eyes in a game that I expect to be very low scoring. So I’ll take the points with the Colts and take the under as well.