Sunday Locks: Week 15
Falcons @ Saints (-4), O/U 43.5
You’d think that a Week 15 game between 5–8 and 4–9 would be completely meaningless. Thank the NFC South for making this game matter. I’m excited to watch Desmond Ridder. I expect some hiccups, but his legs should help make some plays. I simply don’t think the Saints should be favored by more than a field goal over anyone right now, so give me the points with the Falcons and the under.
Picks: Falcons +4 (Deadbolt), UNDER 43.5 (Deadbolt)
Eagles (-8.5) @ Bears, O/U 48.5
I fully expect the Eagles to dominate the Bears here. I think they want that MVP award for Hurts and understand the importance of him getting stats these last few weeks, particularly if they’re in a position to possibly rest guys Week 18. I have some pause that this could be a trap game with their matchup against the Cowboys looming on Christmas Eve, but not enough to change my pick here. I’ll lay the points with the Eagles and take the over.
Picks: Eagles -8.5 (Fort Knox), OVER 48.5 (Padlock)
Lions (-1) @ Jets, O/U 44
Zach Wilson is back. And this game may make or break what happens to him both this offseason and for the remainder of his career. But him playing doesn’t change much about this game. The Lions are as hot as any team in the league right now, mostly offensively but also defensively. They’re finally getting healthy whereas the Jets are banged up. They’re slightly different outside of Ford Field, but they had a convincing win at Metlife just under a month ago, and I expect the same here. Give me the Lions and the under (but really just the Jets team total under).
Picks: Lions -1 (Deadbolt), UNDER 44 (Padlock)
Steelers @ Panthers (-3), O/U 37.5
The Panthers are my pick right now to win the NFC South. You heard it here first. For that to happen, this is a game they need to win. Whether it’s Mason Rudolph or Mitch Trubisky, I don’t think it matters. I’ll lay the field goal with the Panthers and take the under.
Picks: Panthers -3 (Padlock), UNDER 37.5 (Fort Knox)
Cowboys (-4) @ Jaguars, O/U 48
This is the perfect buy-low, sell-high game. Last week the Cowboys were 17 point favorites against the Texans and nearly (probably should have) lost the game. The Jaguars, on the other hand, were underdogs at the Titans and they absolutely crushed them. So I’ll buy low on the Cowboys here and sell high on the Jaguars by laying the points with the Cowboys and taking the under.
Picks: Cowboys -4 (Padlock), UNDER 48 (Padlock)
Chiefs (-14) @ Texans, O/U 49.5
Back to back double digit dogs for the Texans here. They nearly pulled off the total upset last week against the Cowboys. I don’t expect the same this week. The Chiefs should annihilate the Texans, so I’m not overthinking this. I’ll lay the two touchdowns with the Chiefs and take the under.
Picks: Chiefs -14 (Deadbolt), UNDER 49.5 (Padlock)
Patriots @ Raiders (-1.5), O/U 44.5
This game lost a lot of its luster when the Raiders went ahead and blew it last Thursday Night. The Patriots are now in a decent spot as they try to make a playoff push, whereas the Raiders now have to play spoiler. I expect them to do just that here. I still don’t like the Patriots and think the talent of the Raiders prevails. So I’ll lay the points with the Raiders and take the under.
Picks: Raiders -1.5 (Padlock), UNDER 44.5 (Deadbolt)
Cardinals @ Broncos (-1.5), O/U 37
Colt McCoy vs. Brett Rypien. Let’s go. I always say Colt McCoy is good for a win in his first spot start and then loses the ensuing weeks. I’m choosing to not count last week since he did not get the start, so I’ll take the points with the Cardinals here along with the over.
Picks: Cardinals +1.5 (Padlock), OVER 37 (Padlock)
Titans @ Chargers (-3), O/U 46.5
I like the Chargers to go on a bit of a run here to finish up the season, but this seems like a good spot for the Titans. They were just embarrassed by the Jags. Their offense relies on the run. The Chargers struggle against the run. So I expect this game to be very competitive. With that being the case, I’ll take the field goal with the Titans along with the over.
Picks: Titans +3 (Padlock), OVER 46.5 (Padlock)
Bengals (-3.5) @ Buccaneers, O/U 45
I am DONE with the Bucs. They stink. They’re done. The Bengals will destroy them. I’ll lay the points with the Bengals here and take the under (but mostly just the Bucs team total under).
Picks: Bengals -3.5 (Fort Knox), UNDER 45 (Deadbolt)
Giants @ Commanders (-5), O/U 40.5
What a showdown on Sunday Night. 7–5–1 vs. 7–5–1. Tiebreaker on the line. Likely a spot in the playoffs on the line. When these teams played just two weeks ago, they tied 20–20, but the Giants were the superior team. This game being in Washington will change a little, but this is too many points. So I’ll take the points with the Giants and the under here.
