Sunday Locks: Week 2
“Padlock” means a pick I’d make if forced to make a pick but one I’m not super confident about.
“Deadbolt” means a pick I like and feel good about.
“Fort Knox” means a pick I absolutely LOVE.
Here are your locks!
Jets @ Browns (-6.5), O/U 39.5
I wrote this whole thing up as if I were picking the Jets. I even had a thing in it about how I was going against my “never pick the Jets, no matter how many points they’re getting” rule. But I can’t do it. Not with Joe Flacco back there against this Browns defensive front. I don’t know how the Jets score double digits in this game. I’ll lay the points with the Browns along with the under.
Picks: Browns -6.5 (Padlock), UNDER 39.5 (Fort Knox)
Commanders @ Lions (-1), O/U 48.5
The last time the Lions were favored, it was Week 11 in the 2020 season as they were going up against a PJ Walker-led Panthers team. They went on to lose that game 20–0. Yikes. Earlier in the week, this was one of my easier picks, as this Lions offense truly impressed me enough to feel great about picking them. Fast forward to Sunday and their entire middle of the o-line (center and both guards, along with backup guard) is out for this one. That’s not great. I’m still going to pick the Lions here, but not confidently. Same thing with the over.
Picks: Lions -1 (Padlock), OVER 48.5 (Deadbolt)
Buccaneers (-2.5) @ Saints, O/U 44.5
The Saints have owned Tom Brady and the Buccaneers, so until proven otherwise, that’s where I’m leaning. My only pause is because I’m shocked that the Saints are the underdog in this game, but I guess that’s in large part to their lackluster Week 1 performance. But give me the Saints with the points along with the under.
Picks: Saints +2.5 (Deadbolt), UNDER 44.5 (Fort Knox)
Panthers @ Giants (-2), O/U 43.5
These two teams both had their Week 1 games come down to a last minute field goal by the other team. The Panthers opponent made their kick. The Giants opponent missed theirs. I’m simply going to take the Panthers in a game between two teams who I don’t feel overly confident about winning many games. I’ll take the over as well.
Picks: Panthers +2 (Padlock), OVER 43.5 (Padlock)
Patriots (-2.5) @ Steelers, O/U 40.5
This is the most puzzling line of the week to me. I get that TJ Watt is out, but how in the world are the Patriots favored on the road against the Steelers? Especially following last week’s performances by both of these teams? I don’t get it, and that’s the only thing giving me pause here. Give the Steelers and the under.
Picks: Steelers +2.5 (Padlock), UNDER 40.5 (Padlock)
Colts (-3) @ Jaguars, O/U 45.5
This is a tough game to pick. The last two times the Colts have played have done absolutely nothing to validate them being a road favorite against anyone. One of those two games was against this very Jaguars team. And the Jaguars have reason to be optimistic. I’m banking on the better team, the Colts, waking up here and having a statement win, so I’ll lay the points with Indy. I’ll take the over as well.
Picks: Colts -3 (Padlock), OVER 45.5 (Padlock)
Dolphins @ Ravens (-3.5), O/U 44.5
The Dolphins defense absolutely dominated this matchup last season. I don’t expect that to be the case here. I expect Jim Harbaugh to have this team, specifically the offense, prepared and ready to go. And I’m simply not going to take Tua just yet. I’ll lay the points with the Ravens and take the over.
Picks: Ravens -3.5 (Padlock), OVER 44.5 (Deadbolt)
Falcons @ Rams (-10), O/U 46.5
The Rams have had a full 10 days to mull over their despicable performance against the Bills in the season opener. I expect them to unleash all of their anger on the Falcons here. This is a ton of points, but the Falcons don’t seem to have the make up of a team that can hang with the Rams. And when the Rams start rolling, it’s tough to stop them. I’ll lay the big number and take the over.
Picks: Rams -10 (Deadbolt), OVER 46.5 (Padlock)
Seahawks @ 49ers (-9), O/U 41
This is a tough game for me to pick. The Seahawks are a team I don’t really like or believe in coming off of a strong performance. The 49ers are a team I do think is pretty good coming off of a bad performance. Just based off of that, I naturally want to take the 49ers. But this is a very big number, and it’s a division game. It’s too tough feeling good about laying that many points with Trey Lance right now. I have to take the points with the Seahawks here. I’ll take the under as well.
Picks: Seahawks +9 (Padlock), UNDER 41 (Padlock)
Bengals (-7) @ Cowboys, O/U 42
Good spot for the Bengals here who had a disastrous showing by Joe Burrow and their offense in Week 1. It’s a miracle they kept that game close. Fortunately, they get the Dak-less Cowboys here, who even with Dak, looked absolutely lifeless on offense last week. I can see Micah causing Burrow some problems, but I don’t see the Cowboys offense putting up many points. This should be an easy cover for the Bengals. I’ll take the under as well.
Picks: Bengals -7 (Deadbolt), UNDER 42 (Padlock)
Texans @ Broncos (-10), O/U 46
Big number alert. This game is essentially the same for me as the Seahawks-49ers game. The Texans played well last week, but I don’t really like them. The Broncos played poorly, but I do kind of like them. So while I want to pick the Broncos, this is too big of a number for me. Give the Texans with the points along with the under.
Picks: Texans +10 (Padlock), UNDER 46 (Padlock)
Cardinals @ Raiders (-5), O/U 51.5
The Cardinals may stink. I always think they’re a decent team based off of some of the numbers they put up and the box scores and the names on their roster. But then I watch them, and think they stink. How many sideways passes can one team throw? I don’t understand that as an offense. I’m taking the Raiders here for no other reason than the Cardinals annoyed me last week. I’ll take the over as well.
Picks: Raiders -5 (Deadbolt), OVER 51.5 (Deadbolt)
Bears @ Packers (-9.5), O/U 41.5
Are the Packers in trouble after another lifeless Week 1 performance? Maybe. They certainly have issues at WR. But until proven otherwise, they own the Bears. So I’m laying the points with the Packers along with the under.
