Sunday Locks: Week 3
Texans @ Bears (-3), O/U 39.5
This game may wind up having top 5 pick implications in next year’s draft, but for now it’s a battle of two teams that, to their credit, have fought pretty well for the first two weeks of the season despite being clearly outmatched in the talent department. I’ll take the points with the Texans here. I like their defense and how they’ve competed, and find it too difficult to believe the Bears will get to 2–1. I’ll take the under as well.
Picks: Texans +3 (Padlock), UNDER 39.5 (Deadbolt)
Raiders (-2) @ Titans, O/U 45.5
I love the Raiders here. Yes, they’re 0–2. Yes, they have a catastrophic collapse last week at the end of the game. But this roster is still loaded with talent, even with some injuries taking their toll. And just because they’re 0–2 doesn’t mean they’ve been outplayed by a lot these first two weeks. Meanwhile, the Titans stink. I’ll lay the points with the Raiders. I’ll take the over as well.
Picks: Raiders -2 (Fort Knox), OVER 45.5 (Padlock)
Chiefs (-5.5) @ Colts, O/U 50.5
This game scares me. The Chiefs are 2–0. The Colts are 0–2. Hungry dog runs faster (credit Dave Portnoy) applies here, meaning I can easily see the Colts keeping this one close. But the Colts have been so unbelievably atrocious through two weeks, and Matt Ryan looks done, that it makes it too painful to pick them. I’ll lay the points with the Chiefs. I also LOVE the under here.
Picks: Chiefs -5.5 (Padlock), UNDER 50.5 (Fort Knox)
Bills (-5) @ Dolphins, O/U 53
Injuries to the Bills defense have made this pick much more dicey in my eyes. I love the Bills this year. And I’m not so high on the Dolphins, despite the wild comeback they had last year. I still need to see it more consistently from Tua. You know what will help him and those two lethal weapons he has at WR? Playing against rookies and backups in the Bills secondary. So this pick is now not so easy for me. Still, I’ll lay the points with the Bills, and I’ll take the over.
Picks: Bills -5 (Padlock), OVER 53 (Deadbolt)
Lions @ Vikings (-6), O/U 52.5
The Lions are trending up and the Vikings are trending down, which is usually a perfect spot for me to take the opposite . The problem is the team trending down is still fairly heavily favored here. And during the Dan Campbell era, all the Lions do is cover spreads. And they look like they can put up points at will. They beat the Vikings once last year and nearly beat them the second time. And that was last year, when they didn’t look like a real football team at times. This year they look different. I’ll take the points with the Lions. I’ll take the over as well.
Picks: Lions +6 (Deadbolt), OVER 52.5 (Deadbolt)
Ravens (-2.5) @ Patriots, O/U 44
I guess the defensive collapse that the Ravens had last week really impacted the bookies opinion of them. That’s the only explanation for why this spread is as close as it is. The Patriots have done very little to inspire confidence in me that they can put up points. Sure, they have a good defense, but I love the way Lamar has played through two weeks. I’ll gladly lay less than a field goal with the Ravens here and take the over.
Picks: Ravens -2.5 (Fort Knox), OVER 44 (Deadbolt)
Bengals (-6) @ Jets, O/U 44.5
This is a rematch of the Mike White game from last year where White made himself famous for his extraordinary play in a Jets upset defeat over the Bengals. Unfortunately for all of America, Joe Flacco played extremely well last week and actually has earned this start (which for some reason he likely would’ve had anyway). The Bengals have been an utter disappointment for two weeks. I can’t possibly see them going 0–3 here. And I have to think they win in convincing fashion. I’ll lay the points with the Bengals and take the under.
Picks: Bengals -6 (Padlock), UNDER 44.5 (Padlock)
Eagles (-6.5) @ Commanders, O/U 47.5
My loyal readers might already be sick of me saying this, but the Eagles look awesome. I will be picking them every week for the foreseeable future. Even when they have to lay basically a TD on the road against a division rival. Give me the Birds and the under.
Picks: Eagles -6.5 (Deadbolt), UNDER 47.5 (Padlock)
Saints (-2.5) @ Panthers, O/U 41
Another division game here where the road team is the favorite. And I don’t think by nearly enough. The Saints have not looked great to start this season, which has been a disappointment to me. But the Panthers have looked horrible. Last year Sam Darnold led the Panthers to a 3–0 start. Unfortunately for them, I expect Baker Mayfield to lead them to 0–3. I’ll lay the points with the Saints and take the under.
Picks: Saints -2.5 (Padlock), UNDER 41 (Deadbolt)
Jaguars @ Chargers (-3), O/U 42.5
It’s extremely difficult to pick this game without knowing the status of Justin Herbert. The line moved from -7 to -3 on Friday, which leads me to believe that he won’t be playing, which might be a smart. It’s a long season. It’s a (perceived) weak opponent. And this team has Super Bowl aspirations. But the Jaguars have looked pretty good through two weeks, so should not be taken lightly even with Herbert at QB. With so much unknown, I can’t feel good about this, but I’ll lay the field goal with the Chargers. I just expect them to get it done. I’ll take the over too.
Picks: Chargers -3 (Padlock), OVER 42.5 (Padlock)
Rams (-3.5) @ Cardinals, O/U 48.5
This matchup was much more competitive during the regular season last year than it was when they met in the playoffs. The Rams dominated that matchup. And despite not really impressing through two weeks, I really like this matchup for the Rams. They’re weakness is with teams that will physically impose their will on them. That does not describe the Cardinals. I’ll lay the points with the Rams here. I’ll take the over as well.
Picks: Rams -3.5 (Deadbolt), OVER 48.5 (Padlock)
Falcons @ Seahawks (-1), O/U 42
I have no clue what to think about this game. If my offseason predictions are correct, both the Texans-Bears game and this one will have significant draft implications. I’m simply rolling with the home team here, which would get the Seahawks to a surprising 2–1 start to the season. I’ll take the over as well.
Picks: Seahawks -1 (Padlock), OVER 42 (Padlock)
Packers @ Buccaneers (-1), O/U 42
Rodgers vs. Brady. This may be the last time they meet (or maybe not, who knows). I don’t know how you can feel confident about the Bucs offense leading into this game. They’ve been horrible for two weeks, and now lost Mike Evans. But whenever you count out Tom Brady is typically when he reminds you why he’s the undisputed GOAT. Even knowing that, I love the Packers defense enough to take the Packers here along with the under.
Picks: Packers +1.5 (Deadbolt), UNDER 42 (Padlock)
49ers (-1.5) @ Broncos, O/U 43
I’m doing what I hate doing here. This is a perfect game where the line makes no sense to me. I’m well aware of the issues that the Russell Wilson (and Nathaniel Hackett) led Broncos have had to start their season. But this is a talented Broncos team with a great home field advantage who is home on Sunday Night. And their opponent is a team who, all offseason, made it publicly known that they did not want their current starting QB on their roster. So everything in my being is screaming “PICK THE BRONCOS!” But I’m going against that here and taking the 49ers on the road. I’ll take the under as well.
