Sunday Locks: Week 4
Vikings (-3) @ Saints, O/U 41
London baby! (I love a good Friends reference.) The Vikings did what good teams do last week and that’s win a game they had no business winning. Still, I can’t label them a “good team” just yet. The Saints certainly are not a good team through 3 weeks. Not having Jameis Winston may wind up being a positive for this team seeing as Andy Dalton is certainly a capable backup. I’ll lay the field goal with the Vikings, and I’ll take the under.
Picks: Vikings -3 (Deadbolt), UNDER 41 (Padlock)
Browns (-1) @ Falcons, O/U 47.5
While I find it hard to believe that the Browns are actually good, they’re a historic collapse away from being 3–0 to start the season. And the Falcons stink. So it feels like the Browns should be the pick. But the NFL is a league of parity, this year more than ever, and I don’t see the Browns getting to 3–1. So I’m going with the Falcons in this one in a surprisingly high scoring game. I’ll take the over.
Picks: Falcons +1 (Padlock), OVER 47.5 (Padlock)
Commanders @ Cowboys (-3.5), O/U 41
NFC East divisional game. These are always fun. The Commanders stink. They can’t block. The Cowboys look good. Micah Parsons is an animal. Cooper Rush has shown he’s capable enough. And it’s just a 3 point spread at home for the Cowboys? That makes no sense. The bookies are begging you to take the Cowboys. So I’m taking the Commanders here getting the field goal. I don’t know how they’ll do it, but I expect them to fight and keep it close. I’ll take the under as well.
Picks: Commanders +3 (Padlock), UNDER 41 (Deadbolt)
Seahawks @ Lions (-3.5), O/U 47.5
This line opened at -6.5 for the Lions. I hope someone got a picture of that historic moment. With the Lions injury situation, it has since dropped to a more reasonable -3.5 line. I’ll lay the points with the Lions, despite the injuries. I expect a lot of success from Jamaal Williams and Craig Reynolds on the ground. I also expect their receiving depth to shine in this one. I’ll take the under as well, since the lack of explosive playmakers will likely lead to longer drives, chewing up more clock, and keep the score down.
Picks: Lions -3.5 (Deadbolt), UNDER 47.5 (Padlock)
Titans @ Colts (-3.5), O/U 43
I still don’t think either of these two teams are any good. Yes, they both had impressive wins last week. But that doesn’t erase just how putrid they both were the first two weeks of the season. I expect a close game here between two division rival, so I’ll take the road team getting more than the field goal. Give me the Titans and the under.
Picks: Titans +3.5 (Padlock), UNDER 43 (Padlock)
Bears @ Giants (-3), O/U 39.5
The winner of this game gets to 3–1 on the season. That’s crazy to me. Neither of these teams have offenses worth bragging about. The Bears have very little playmakers altogether. The Giants at least have Saquon, who has been very good to start this season. Neither of their defenses are anything to write home about either, although they’ve both been playing quite well. This is simply a gut pick right here. I’m laying the field goal with the Giants and taking the under.
Picks: Giants -3 (Padlock), UNDER 39.5 (Deadbolt)
Jaguars @ Eagles (-6.5), O/U 45.5
I love what the Jaguars have done so far this season. They look fun. Their offense genuinely looks good. Trevor Lawrence is quietly validating what people thought about him prior to last season. But I LOVE the Eagles. I just think these are two different classes of teams. The Jaguars are a feel good story team who will win some games and in a bad divison might even compete for the title. But the Eagles are a powerhouse, in every way. So I’ll lay the points with the Eagles, and I’ll take the over.
Picks: Eagles -6.5 (Fort Knox), OVER 45.5 (Deadbolt)
Jets @ Steelers (-3.5), O/U 41.5
Zach Wilson returns. Thank god for Jets fans who just need to see him play, good or bad, in order for this season to be deemed a success. On the road in Pittsburgh though, I expect him to play bad. Even without TJ Watt on the other side. Now, I don’t expect Mitch Trubisky to play much better, but it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Kenny Pickett takes over at some point and runs away with the starting job mid-game. I’ll lay the points with the Steelers here along with the under.
Picks: Steelers -3.5 (Padlock), UNDER 41.5 (Padlock)
Bills (-3) @ Ravens, O/U 51
The Bills should be a little healthier for this game. I expect points here. I don’t think Josh Allen likes that they lost last week, so I expect a big game from him, particularly on the ground. And the Ravens offense has been excellent through 3 weeks. At the end of the day, despite the injuries, I trust the Bills defense more than the Ravens defense, so I’ll lay the field goal with the Bills and take the over.
Picks: Bills -3 (Deadbolt), OVER 51 (Deadbolt)
Chargers (-5.5) @ Texans, O/U 45
This may not seem like a big game, but in the Chargers case, they need to win this one. I don’t care about the injuries. They cannot lose 3 straight games to drop them to 1–3 on the season with all of the preseason expectations they came in with. That’s when talk of firing head coaches creeps in and things can get out of control. So I like the Chargers to win, but this is too many points for them given the state of their team. I’m taking the points with the Texans here and the under.
Picks: Texans +5.5 (Padlock), UNDER 45 (Deadbolt)
Cardinals @ Panthers (-1), O/U 43.5
I don’t like either of these teams. The Cardinals are a mess. The Panthers might be more a mess. But the Panthers won last week and the Cardinals lost, so I’ll simply take the more desperate team here and go with the Cardinals. I’ll take the under as well.
Picks: Cardinals +1 (Deadbolt), UNDER 43.5 (Padlock)
Patriots @ Packers (-9), O/U 40.5
This line opened at 10.5. That’s a lot of points. It’s come down to a more palatable 9 in favor of the home team, but that’s still a lot in a game I expect to be low scoring. I’ll take the Patriots getting the points and the under.
Picks: Patriots +9 (Padlock), UNDER 40.5 (Fort Knox)
Broncos @ Raiders (-2.5), O/U 45.5
With how the Broncos have played to begin this season, if they were to be 3–1, the rest of the league should be sick to their stomachs. They can’t move the ball of offense at all. The Raiders, on the other hand, move it just fine. They simply can’t score TDs. And I still see talent on this team. I’ll never learn my lesson. I’m rolling with the Raiders and the under.
Picks: Raiders -2.5 (Padlock), UNDER 45.5 (Deadbolt)
Chiefs @ Buccaneers (-1), O/U 46
One of these two popular Super Bowl picks will have a losing streak following this game. I don’t foresee much offense here, despite the baby GOAT vs. GOAT battle that people love to talk about. I’ll roll with the home team and take the Bucs here. And I absolutely LOVE the under.
