Sunday Locks: Week 8
Broncos @ Jaguars (-1.5), O/U 39.5
Back in London! And boy is it a snoozer. The Broncos are back in front of a national audience following a nice one-week reprieve last week. At least Russell Wilson is back, and he should be fresh after doing some calisthenics on the flight over. The Jaguars were once an exciting watch, but have been awful on their 4-game losing streak. Out of spite for having to watch the Broncos again, I’m backing the Jags here. I’ll hammer the under as well.
Picks: Jaguars -1.5 (Padlock), UNDER 39.5 (Fort Knox)
Panthers @ Falcons (-4), O/U 41
This line has been steadily dropping as the week has gone on in favor of the Panthers. And I don’t get it, which scares me. The Panthers have a good defense, and clearly showed they’re not bailing on the season with their shocking upset last week. But the Falcons have done that all season. They’ve competed. And quite frankly, I think they’re just better, and they’re home. Also, wild fact of the week, if the Panthers win this game, they’ll be tied atop the NFC South. That’s the 2022 NFL for ya. I’ll lay the points with the Falcons and take the under.
Picks: Falcons -4 (Deadbolt), UNDER 41 (Deadbolt)
Bears @ Cowboys (-10), O/U 42.5
The Bears were very impressive on Monday Night. I’m not on board with them being an actual good team yet, but I certainly can’t say they’re awful right now. And the Cowboys did not look good at all offensively, despite their win, last week. Maybe it was Dak knocking some rust off. Maybe it’s that Dak’s not great. Either way, this is a ton of points, so I’ll take them with the Bears. I’ll hammer the under as well.
Picks: Bears +10 (Padlock), UNDER 42.5 (Fort Knox)
Dolphins (-3.5) @ Lions, O/U 51.5
Tua and this electric Dolphins offense looked unstoppable for a quarter last Sunday Night. And then they cooled off. But it’s clear the difference that he makes. The Lions have now lost 4 straight and their season basically hangs in the balance with this game. Fortunately for them, they should be getting Swift back for this game, and that could be the key for them getting back to the dynamic offense that they showed earlier in the season. I’ll take the points with the Lions here along with the over.
Picks: Lions +3.5 (Padlock), OVER 51.5 (Deadbolt)
Cardinals @ Vikings (-3.5), O/U 49
Big game here. With the NFC West wide open, the Cardinals have an opportunity to steal a big, road victory against a quality opponent to get back to .500. I still don’t view them as a good team, but Deandre Hopkins being back is certainly a big deal. Then there’s the Vikings, who have to be the least-talked about 5–1 team in history. I haven’t heard anyone mention them as a true contender, and yet they’re running away with the NFC North. I expect a tight get here, so I’ll just take the points with the Cardinals. I’ll take the over as well.
Picks: Cardinals +3.5 (Padlock), OVER 49 (Deadbolt)
Raiders (-1) @ Saints, O/U 49.5
2–4 vs. 2–5 doesn’t seem like a big game, but this certainly is. The Raiders have an opportunity to get 3 wins in 4 weeks (with the only loss a tightly contested primetime loss in Kansas City). That would mean they’re relevant. The Saints have a legitimate opportunity to finish this week in a 4-way tie atop the NFC South if they win and if the Panthers beat the Falcons. Even if the Falcons win, they would just be a game back of the division lead and possess the tiebreaker. That would also mean they’re relevant. I like the Raiders here to continue their roll. I’ll take the under as well.
Picks: Raiders -1 (Padlock), UNDER 49.5 (Padlock)
Patriots (-2.5) @ Jets, O/U 40.5
How in the world are the Patriots, at 3–4 and coming off of an abysmal home, primetime loss to the lowly Bears, favored on the road against the 5–2 Jets? I haven’t been able to make sense of lines in the past, but this might be the most puzzling. And that’s exactly why I’m taking the Patriots here. Because I know that I’m not as smart as the linemakers are. I’ll take the under as well.
Picks: Patriots -2.5 (Padlock), UNDER 40.5 (Fort Knox)
Steelers @ Eagles (-10.5), O/U 43
The Steelers fight. They scrap. But sadly, they’re not good anymore. It’s officially the end of an era. I like their defense to compete, but I don’t know how they plan on scoring. I expect a rough afternoon for Kenny Pickett against this Eagles team. I’ll lay the points with the birds here and take the under.
Picks: Eagles -10.5 (Padlock), UNDER 43 (Padlock)
Titans @ Texans (-1), O/U 39
The Titans are on a 4-game winning streak and have actually shown that there’s a chance the AFC South produces a division champion that’s not absolute trash. And the Texans do stink, that’s confirmed. They can’t stop the run. Despite all of that, I was picking the Texans here all week. That changed with the news yesterday that Malik Willis was getting the start with Ryan Tannehill out. I’m not saying Willis is better than Tannehill. I am saying that not being able to properly prepare for Willis all week, who is a completely different type of QB than Tannehill, is difficult to deal with. Particularly when the Texans have issues against the run to begin with, and now you have Willis and Henry coming at you. I’ll take the Titans and the over.
Picks: Titans +1 (Padlock), OVER 39 (Padlock)
Commanders @ Colts (-2.5), O/U 39.5
Taylor Heinicke vs. Sam Ehlinger. Must-see TV for sure. I’ve liked what I’ve seen from Heinicke and actually think the Commanders are going to rally a bit and compete this season. So I’ll take the points with the road team here along with the under.
Picks: Commanders +2.5 (Padlock), UNDER 39.5 (Padlock)
49ers (-1) @ Rams, O/U 42.5
I’m done overthinking this matchup. Outside of the playoffs last season, the 49ers destroy the Rams. Shanahan destroys McVay. The 49ers d-line destroys the non-existant Rams o-line. Done. End of story. I’m picking the 49ers and the under.
Picks: 49ers -1 (Fort Knox), UNDER 42.5 (Deadbolt)
Giants @ Seahawks (-3), O/U 44.5
As everyone predicted before the season started, the 6–1 Giants traveling to face the 4–3 division-leading Seahawks would be the masrquee matchup of the weekend. I’ve been wrong on the Giants so many times. I’m going down with the ship here and going against them again. I do like the Giants and respect what they’ve done so far this season. But they have to lose at some point. And playing in Seattle is never easy, especially when it’s against a Seahawks team that has been equally as surprising. So I’ll lay the field goal with the Seahawks and take the under.
Picks: Seahawks -3 (Padlock), UNDER 44.5 (Padlock)
Packers @ Bills (-11), O/U 47.5
Sorry NBC, what looked like a thrilled on Sunday Night now looks like a stinker. The Packers are officially bad, confirmed. They’re horrible on offense. They’re average on defense. And the Bills are awesome. The Bills should steamroll them here. I’ll lay the big number with the Bills and take the under.
