Super Bowl Lock!

Craig Ebinger
3 min readFeb 12, 2023

Chiefs @ Eagles (-1.5), O/U 51

The Super Bowl is always bittersweet. On one hand, this is it. This is what the whole season leads up to. This is the matchup to decide who wins this NFL season. On the other hand, this is it. There’s no more games after this until September. The season is over. But let’s focus on the positive. This is an incredible matchup. I can’t wait.

Quite frankly, I was wrong all season about this Chiefs team. Patrick Mahomes proved this season that he doesn’t need weapons. He’s simply the best. Outside of him and obviously Travis Kelce, who is arguably the most important skill player in the league, they don’t have many weapons on offense. And on defense, they have Chris Jones and Frank Clark and a bunch of others. So this is not a loaded roster by any stretch. That being said, the two most important people on a football team, particularly in the Super Bowl, are the QB and the head coach. The Chiefs have the edge at both of these spots.

The Eagles have been the most dominant team in the NFC from the very beginning. This is the definition of a loaded roster with legitimately no deficiencies. Offensively, they can beat you in so many ways, but it does start of them with their dynamic rushing attack behind the best o-line in football. Defensively, their d-line and corners are elite. The only question mark around this team is that they’ve had such an easy time all season long and have played from out in front a lot. So what happens if they fall behind?

I’m taking the Eagles here along with the under. I can see this game going one of two ways. If it’s a close game, I give the edge to the Chiefs due to their experience, particularly at QB and head coach. I trust Mahomes and Reid more than Hurts and Sirianni. But my overwhelming feeling is that this won’t be a close game. Remember the Chiefs-Bucs Super Bowl two years ago? That was a more talented Chiefs team than this one, and a less talented Bucs team than this Eagles team. The deciding factor was the d-line of the Bucs dominating the o-line of the Chiefs. This Chiefs o-line is better than that one, but the Eagles d-line is a force. And I expect them to control this game. And then I don’t expect the Chiefs defense to hold the Eagles offense under their normal high 20s-low 30s. Chris Jones and the Chiefs d-line won the game against the Bengals inept, and banged up, o-line. They won’t be able to do that against this Eagles stout front. So give me the Eagles and the under (but really just the Chiefs team total under).

Picks: Eagles -1.5 (Deadbolt), UNDER 51 (Deadbolt)

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Craig Ebinger

I like sports. I’m very opinionated. I like sharing my opinions and arguing senselessly with anyone who wants to argue.