Week 7 Locks
Bills (-11.5) @ Jets: O/U 46
ATS: Bills: 3–3, Jets: 0–6
O/U: Bills: 5–1, Jets: 3–3
There’s not many certainties in life, but one that I’m confident in is you can’t go wrong picking against the Jets this year. It doesn’t matter how many points they’re getting.
I’m taking the Bills to break their two game losing streak in a big way this week. I believe in Josh Allen. I also believe that Adam Gase is still employed solely to give the Jets their best chance at getting the first pick.
Picks: Bills -11.5 (Fort Knox), UNDER 46 (Padlock)
Packers (-3.5) @ Texans: O/U 57
ATS: Packers: 4–1, Texans: 1–5
O/U: Packers: 3–2, Texans: 5–1
The Texans are probably better than their record indicates. But I think Aaron Rodgers and the Packers had a big wake up call last week, and I still think they are one of the few elite all around teams in the league.
I’m rolling with the Packers laying the 3.5 points. The one thing I will be keeping my eye on however is Aaron Jones who is dealing with an injury that just popped up on Friday. If he’s ruled out, it’ll be interesting to see what happens to the line here.
Picks: Packers -3.5 (Fort Knox), UNDER 57 (Padlock)
Panthers @ Saints (-7): O/U 50
ATS: Panthers: 3–3, Saints: 2–3
O/U: Panthers: 2–4, Saints: 5–0
The Saints will once again be playing without superstar WR Michael Thomas. On top of that, Emmanuel Sanders is also out. Those two losses should significantly impact this game in favor of the Panthers, who are much better than I think anyone expected them to be before the season.
I’ll take the 7 points the Panthers are getting. The Saints at home are tough, but it’s pretty clear the impact that not having Michael Thomas has on this team. I expect Sean Payton to get creative with Taysom Hill along with a strong running game from both Kamara and Murray, but 7 points is enough for me to take the underdog here.
Picks: Panthers +7 (Deadbolt), UNDER 50 (Deadbolt)
Steelers @ Titans (-1): O/U 50.5
ATS: Steelers: 4–1, Titans: 2–3
O/U: Steelers: 3–2, Titans: 4–1
5–0 vs. 5–0. This is going to be a good one. Both of these teams look elite. Both of these teams will be playing into January. Both of these teams lack glaring weaknesses.
I’m going with Titans laying a point. I do think losing Taylor Lewan is significant. However, I trust Mike Vrabel and this team’s culture and style of play to pull through here. The bruising, ground and pound of Derrick Henry should be enough to slow down the speed of the Steelers defense just enough for them to pull out this victory in a significant AFC battle.
Picks: Titans -1 (Padlock), OVER 50.5 (Deadbolt)
Browns (-3.5) @ Bengals: O/U 50.5
ATS: Browns: 3–3, Bengals: 4–2
O/U: Browns: 4–2, Bengals: 3–3
Match #2 of the season between these two Ohio rivals. Match #1 went in favor of the Browns, although the Bengals did manage to steal a last second cover in an absolute shootout.
I’m going with the Bengals to cover again getting 3.5 points. The Browns are coming off a dreadful performance last week against the Steelers. I think the second something goes wrong this week, they’ll start to implode a little. The Bengals got off to a great start last week against the Colts. If they do anything remotely close to that this week, I expect them to hold on.
Picks: Bengals +3.5 (Padlock), OVER 50.5 (Deadbolt)
Cowboys @ Football Team (-1): O/U 46
ATS: Cowboys: 0–6, Football Team: 2–3–1
O/U: Cowboys: 4–2, Football Team: 3–3
The NFC East is going to get another win! The pessimist will look at what’s going on with the NFC East and say how pathetic of a division it is and that it’s unfair to teams in other divisions that a playoff spot is going to go to one of these teams. The optimist will say it’s incredibly exciting that all four of these teams will be playing meaningful football essentially the entire season.
I’m going with the Football Team in this one. The Cowboys can’t stop anyone. The offense looks completely different without Dak. And in a game like this, I’m going with Coach Ron Rivera to rally his team and pull out a win, which will put his team squarely in the hunt for a home playoff game.
Picks: Football Team -1 (Padlock), OVER 46 (Deadbolt)
Lions @ Falcons (-2.5): O/U 55
ATS: Lions: 2–3, Falcons: 2–4
O/U: Lions: 2–2, Falcons: 4–2
Both of these teams are coming off of very impressive wins last week. Albeit against bad teams, but still, they won the games decisively. The Lions can get to .500 with a win, and with a fairly soft schedule the next month or so, can actually see themselves being in the playoff hunt. The Falcons likely dug too big of a hole for themselves, but they’re much better than their 1–5 record shows.
I’m going Lions +2.5. Neither of these teams have shown that they can hold a lead, so I expect a record number of lead changes in this one. At the end of it, I expect it to come down to a quarterback named Matt leading his team down the field for a game winning drive.
Picks: Lions +2.5 (Padlock), OVER 55 (Deadbolt)
Buccaneers (-4) @ Raiders: O/U 51
ATS: Buccaneers: 3–3, Raiders: 3–2
O/U: Buccaneers: 3–3, Raiders: 5–0
Covid. Covid. Covid. Will you ever stop complicating everything in our world? If you asked me last week, I would’ve said I love the Raiders in this one. Then Covid decided to knock out the entire offensive line of the Raiders all week, which has a lot to deal with with this Buccaneers defense.
That being said, I’m still going with the Raiders who are getting 4 points. I think the Buccaneers domination last week has their perceived value at its absolute highest, and I think people forget the last time we saw the Raiders play, they were winning a game against Patrick Mahomes in Arrowhead.
Picks: Raiders +4 (Padlock), UNDER 51 (Padlock)
Chiefs (-9.5) @ Broncos: O/U 46
ATS: Chiefs: 4–2, Broncos: 4–1
O/U: Chiefs: 2–4, Broncos: 2–3
Keep an eye on the weather forecast for this one. We might be looking at a snowy October football game, which could have a huge impact on this one.
I’m going with the Broncos with the 9.5 points. If the weather has an impact, I think that favors the Broncos. I also simply think the Broncos are going to take some momentum from a huge win last week into this one and keep this game close. I fully expect the Chiefs to win. But it’s tough to lay 9.5 points on the road to a division rival, especially if weather plays a factor. I also expect it to take some time for Le’Veon Bell to really show an impact in Kansas City.
Picks: Broncos +9.5 (Padlock), OVER 46 (Padlock)
49ers @ Patriots (-2): O/U 44.5
ATS: 49ers: 3–3, Patriots: 2–3
O/U: 49ers: 3–3, Patriots: 2–3
Could we be looking at a must win game for the Patriots in October? That might be a stretch, but it definitely feels like an important game for them to get. And they’re up against the 49ers who successfully faced a similar type of game last week.
I’m taking the Patriots. I was very impressed with the 49ers win last week in a game they needed to get, and I expect to be equally impressed by the Patriots in this one.
Picks: Patriots -2 (Fort Knox), OVER 44.5 (Padlock)
Jaguars @ Chargers (-7.5): O/U 49
ATS: Jaguars: 2–4, Chargers: 4–1
O/U: Jaguars: 3–3, Chargers: 2–3
The Jaguars have looked awful since that week 1 upset over the Colts. The Chargers have looked very good all season long, but can’t seem to pull out the victories week in and week out.
I’m going with the Jaguars to cover here. I really do like Justin Herbert, and I think Minshew Mania is slowly coming to an end. But 7.5 points is a lot for a team like the Chargers to cover, so give me the points here.
Picks: Jaguars +7.5 (Deadbolt), OVER 49 (Padlock)
Seahawks (-3.5) @ Cardinals: O/U 56
ATS: Seahawks: 4–1, Cardinals: 4–2
O/U: Seahawks: 4–1, Cardinals: 0–6
A good NFC West battle here with a lot on the line. The Seahawks are coming off of a bye looking to seize complete control of what many believe to be the best division in football. The Cardinals are looking to follow up their dominating Monday Night performance from last week with a win to inch closer to the division lead, but to also put them in a great spot in the loaded NFC Wild Card hunt that is beginning to take shape.
I’m going with the Cardinals with the 3.5 points here. The Cardinals seem to always play the Seahawks tough. They’re home. And they’ve got momentum. Not only that, but this game got moved to Sunday Night. If there’s one thing I know about Russell Wilson on Sunday Night Football, it’s that he’s probably going to win, but it’s going to come down to a miracle last minute play. In that case, I like having the 3.5 points.
Picks: Cardinals +3.5 (Fort Knox), OVER 56 (Padlock)
Bears @ Rams (-5.5): O/U 45
ATS: Bears: 4–2, Rams: 3–3
O/U: Bears: 2–4, Rams: 2–4
What an important game to close out the week. Both of these teams have realistic desires to win their respective divisions. Both of these teams are in pretty good spots for the NFC Wild Card race. But with a bunch of other teams in the hunt as well, any week resulting in a loss is extremely costly.
I’m taking the Rams laying the 5.5 points. The Bears are 5–1 and have every right to be proud of how they’ve fared this season. But I’m still skeptical. The Rams are 4–2 and coming off of a bad loss. I expect them to bounce back and get after Nick Foles defensively.
