Nov 1, 2020
Week 8 Locks
ATS Picks: 7–6
O/U Picks: 8–5
Titans (-6) @ Bengals: O/U 51
ATS: Titans: 2–4, Bengals: 5–2
O/U: Titans: 4–1–1, Bengals: 4–3
Here’s a battle of two teams both coming off of the wrong end of very exciting finishes. The Titans nearly completed the comeback only to miss a game-tying field goal. The Bengals flip flopped 4th quarter leads until the clock ran out with them down.
Give me the Titans laying 6 points. The Titans coming off of that loss should be extremely motivated to right the ship. They haven’t done a great job of covering this year, whereas the Bengals have done a great job. I think this is a game that gets both of these teams closer to .500.
Picks: Titans -6 (Fort Knox), OVER 51 (Padlock)
Vikings @ Packers (-6): O/U 50
ATS: Vikings: 3–3, Packers: 5–1
O/U: Vikings: 4–2, Packers: 4–2
Here’s the second battle this season between these long time rivals. The first one was all the way back in Week 1 and was dominated the whole way by the cheeseheads. I expect more of the same this time.
I’m rolling with the Packers laying 6.5 points. The Packers have won 4 of their 5 games this season by two scores. I expect that trend to continue against this Vikings team that is trending way down.
Picks: Packers -6 (Deadbolt), OVER 50 (Padlock)
Rams (-3.5) @ Dolphins: O/U 45.5
ATS: Rams: 4–3, Dolphins: 4–2
O/U: Rams: 2–5, Dolphins: 2–4
What better way to debut your rookie QB, who already has durability concerns, than by letting him go up against Aaron Donald and the Rams defense. That’s what I call peeing into the wind right there.
I’m taking the Rams laying 3.5 points. There’s too much unknown with Tua taking over to think that he’ll have success against this Rams defense that has been playing at an extremely high level all season.
Picks: Rams -3.5 (Fort Knox), OVER 45.5 (Padlock)
Steelers @ Ravens (-4): O/U 46.5
ATS: Steelers: 5–1, Ravens: 3–2–1
O/U: Steelers: 3–2–1, Ravens: 2–4
What a game. The Steelers come into this one undefeated and coming off of a very impressive victory against the Titans. The Ravens come into this one off of their bye week and eager to prove that they can beat elite level teams, something they have not shown capable of in the recent past.
I’m going with the Steelers getting 3.5 points in this one. I’m not super confident in the Ravens ability to beat great teams. I am confident that if the Steelers play the way they are capable of playing, they can beat anyone. So in a battle like this with two top level teams, not to mention division rivals, I envision a close game. Give me the points in that case.
Picks: Steelers +4 (Deadbolt), OVER 46.5 (Deadbolt)
Jets @ Chiefs (-19): O/U 48
ATS: Jets: 1–6, Chiefs: 5–2
O/U: Jets: 3–4, Chiefs: 3–4
The Jets covered last week! And they didn’t allow a single touchdown! Enjoy it Jets fans because this week you’re going to Arrowhead to pay a visit to Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. Oh, and their new running back Le’Veon Bell, who might come into this one with some added motivation.
Give me the Chiefs laying 19 points. I’m aware that’s a ton of points. I’m aware the Jets looked decent last week against a good Bills team. But the Jets still simply cannot score points of their own. If they wind up around 10 points again, which seems likely, it’s tough to envision them holding the Chiefs offense under 30. There’s the cover right there.
Picks: Chiefs -19 (Deadbolt), UNDER 48 (Padlock)
Raiders @ Browns (-2.5): O/U 49.5
ATS: Raiders: 3–3, Browns: 3–4
O/U: Raiders: 6–0, Browns: 5–2
If you’re a fan of either of these two teams, you’re aware of just how important this game is for your playoff hopes. Both of these teams play in divisions where they likely will not be in contention for the division win. But both of these teams are good enough to be in the Wild Card hunt. That means this game could be crucial as a tiebreaker at the end of the season.
I like the Raiders getting 2.5 points in this one. I envision a close one, so again I like getting the points. More importantly than that, the Raiders come in off of a loss, meaning their stock is likely lower, and the Browns got a nice comeback win, meaning their stock is likely higher. I always like taking the opposites in that scenario.
Picks: Raiders +2.5 (Deadbolt), OVER 49.5 (Deadbolt)
Patriots @ Bills (-3.5): O/U 44
ATS: Patriots: 2–4, Bills: 3–4
O/U: Patriots: 2–4, Bills: 5–2
What in the world happened to Cam Newton and the Patriots? Through 3 weeks, Cam looked like MVP Cam and this team looked very good. Now, they’ve lost 3 straight, not looking particularly competitive in any of them, and Cam has looked completely lost. Blame Covid all you want, I just think it’s clear this football team lacks talent. I expect them to be a popular pick this week because of the great Bill Belichick and the thought that they simply have to rebound. I don’t think so. If they were going to rebound, I think it would have happened this past week. This team is done.
Give me the Bills laying the 3.5 points to put a seal on the AFC East division officially being theirs. The Bills have some problems of their own, not looking that good the past 3 weeks either. But I expect Josh Allen to return to form from the first month of the season against this Patriots defense that just got torched by a very suspect 49ers offense.
Picks: Bills -3.5 (Fort Knox), UNDER 44 (Padlock)
Colts (-3) @ Lions: O/U 50.5
ATS: Colts: 3–3, Lions: 3–3
O/U: Colts: 3–3, Lions: 3–3
The Lions enter their first home game in nearly a month riding a two game winning streak after their miraculous last second victory this past Sunday. The Colts enter what now suddenly appears to be a tough road test for them coming off of their bye.
I’m going with the Lions getting a field goal in this one. They have momentum, they’re home, and they know that this is their time to get firmly in the playoff hunt. Adding 4-time Pro Bowler Everson Griffen won’t help on the field this week, as Covid regulations don’t allow him to suit up. But I expect this team to enter this game with the mindset that they’re truly going for it this year because of this move. Don’t sleep on these Lions, who have a very promising upcoming schedule over these next 6 weeks.
Picks: Lions +3 (Padlock), UNDER 50.5 (Deadbolt)
Chargers (-3) @ Broncos: O/U 45
ATS: Chargers: 5–1, Broncos: 4–2
O/U: Chargers: 3–3, Broncos: 3–3
If nothing else, this game is a division battle between two young QBs hoping to be the futures of their respective teams. Justin Herbert has looked electric and this Chargers team seemingly is leading in every game they play. Drew Lock still has a lot to prove, but he’s also played just two games since his injury.
I’m going with the Broncos getting 3 points. This is another buy low, sell high game. The Broncos defense is good enough to keep it tight against the rookie. In a tight, low scoring division battle, give me the points.
Picks: Broncos +3 (Padlock), UNDER 45 (Padlock)
Saints (-4) @ Bears: O/U 45.5
ATS: Saints: 2–4, Bears: 4–3
O/U: Saints: 6–0, Bears: 2–5
This game feels like a make or break game for this Bears team. They were 5–1 going into Monday Night, but it was evident that they were more fortunate than good to get there. Monday Night showed that they lack talent on offense to compete with some of these top teams. The Saints enter this road test on a 3-game winning streak and understand that the Bears are currently ahead of them in standings.
I’m going with the Saints laying the 4 points. Drew Brees and the Saints are looking more and more comfortable without Michael Thomas, so whether he returns this week or not, I expect this offense to do its thing. On the other side of the ball, the Bears simply do not strike fear into the heart of any defense.
Picks: Saints -4 (Deadbolt), OVER 45.5 (Padlock)
49ers @ Seahawks (-3): O/U 54
ATS: 49ers: 4–3, Seahawks: 4–2
O/U: 49ers: 3–4, Seahawks: 5–1
Suddenly this NFC West battle looks very important for both of these teams. The 49ers enter it on a 2-game winning streak and seem to have saved this season. The Seahawks enter it after losing their first game of the season on national TV in OT this past week. A 49ers win here brings them to within 1 game of the division lead in a division where all 4 teams currently boast winning records.
I’m confident in the Seahawks bouncing back this week giving up a field goal. Once again, I view this as a buy low, sell high opportunity. It’s not often you’re going to have to give up only 3 points with the Seahawks at home. I say take that with confidence.
Picks: Seahawks -3 (Fort Knox), OVER 54 (Deadbolt)
Cowboys @ Eagles (-11): O/U 43
ATS: Cowboys: 0–7, Eagles: 2–5
O/U: Cowboys: 4–3, Eagles: 3–4
Ugh. It’s painful enough watching one NFC East team play this year, let alone two going against each other in primetime. That being said, the Cowboys and Eagles do always seem to put up entertaining games, and both of these teams have a division lead at stake coming into this one, so it should be watchable.
I’m taking Ben Dinucci and the Cowboys getting 11 points this week. I don’t feel good saying that, but until Carson Wentz shows consistency throughout an entire game instead of just turning it on at the end, it’s tough to take them by double digits.
Picks: Cowboys +11 (Deadbolt), Over 43 (Padlock)
Buccaneers (-10.5) @ Giants: O/U 47
ATS: Buccaneers: 4–3, Giants: 4–3
O/U: Buccaneers: 4–3, Giants: 2–5
It shouldn’t be allowed to have 3 of the 4 teams playing on Sunday Night and Monday Night to be NFC East teams. The Bucs look absolutely elite. There’s not much else to say. Offensively, defensively, this team is simply loaded with talent. . The Giants on the other hand are unable to score points. They have a respectable defense and the Bucs will be without Chris Godwin, so if you want a reason to believe this will be close, that’s it right there.
I’m going with Buccaneers laying 10.5 points. I don’t expect this to be all that competitive.
