Week 9 Locks
ATS Picks: 13–14
O/U Picks: 13–12–2
Ravens (-1.5) @ Colts: O/U 48
ATS: Ravens: 3–3–1, Colts: 4–3
O/U: Ravens: 3–4, Colts: 4–3
This will be a very telling battle between two of the better teams in the AFC. The Ravens enter it off of a disappointing loss to the undefeated Steelers and still have many questions surrounding them of whether or not they can beat a good team. A win here would go a long way against a Colts team coming in off of a dominant victory last week against the Lions.
I’m taking the Colts here getting a point and a half. Until the Ravens prove otherwise, I don’t think they can beat good teams. The Colts have a dominant defensive line that should control their ground game, and the Ravens have done little to prove they can beat teams through the air. I expect a low scoring, gritty game, where field position is king.
Picks: Colts +1.5 (Padlock), Under 48 (Deadbolt)
Panthers @ Chiefs (-10): O/U 52.5
ATS: Panthers 4–4:, Chiefs: 6–2
O/U: Panthers: 3–5, Chiefs: 3–5
Good news for Panthers fans: it looks like Christian McCaffrey is returning. Bad news for Panthers fans: you’re going to Arrowhead to face the Chiefs who have won their last two games by an average of 26.5 points.
I’m confidently rolling with the Chiefs giving up 10 points. CMC returning will help the Panthers, but I expect Mahomes and Andy Reid to tear up this young defense all game long. They’re simply that good.
Picks: Chiefs -10 (Fort Knox), Under 52.5 (Padlock)
Bears @ Titans (-6.5): O/U 46.5
ATS: Bears: 5–3, Titans: 2–5
O/U: Bears: 3–5, Titans: 5–1–1
2 weeks ago, this would’ve been a battle of a 5–1 Bears team and a 5–0 Titans team. Now, both of these teams have lost 2 straight and are eager to stop the bleeding. Despite the similarities there, these teams face different problems. The Bears offense still lacks any type of punch. The Titans defense, for all the success and hype from last season, has struggled to consistently stop teams.
I’m going with the Bears getting 6.5 points. The Bears aren’t a good team, and I do genuinely believe this Titans team figures it out eventually. That being said, the Titans need to show they can defend another team before I can confidently pick them giving that many points, especially against a strong defensive team like the Bears.
Picks: Bears +6.5 (Padlock), Over 46.5 (Deadbolt)
Broncos @ Falcons (-4): O/U 50
ATS: Broncos: 5–2, Falcons: 3–5
O/U: Broncos: 4–3, Falcons: 4–4
The Broncos last week beat the Chargers, a team that finds very creative ways to squander massive leads late. This week they face the Falcons, who have done the exact same thing all season long.
I don’t see lightning striking twice, and I’m rolling with the Falcons giving up 4 points. The Falcons are a talented football team, at least offensively, whose record doesn’t accurately reflect that. I expect Matt Ryan and company to move the ball through the air at ease playing at home and to come up with their 3rd victory in their last 4 games.
Picks: Falcons -4 (Padlock), Over 50 (Padlock)
Lions @ Vikings (-4.5): O/U 52.5
ATS: Lions: 3–4, Vikings: 4–3
O/U: Lions: 4–3, Vikings: 5–2
It looks like Matthew Stafford is good to play in this one, which is essential for the Lions to have any chance. After a promising start to the season last year, the Lions went 0–8 when he went down to injury. They enter this game off of a very disappointing loss at home to the Colts, and get to face a Vikings team fresh of an impressive victory over the Packers.
I’m taking the 4.5 points the Lions are getting in this one. The Lions have been much improved the last 3 weeks against the run, so I think they contain Dalvin Cook (as best as can be expected). The loss of Kenny Golladay for the Lions is a significant one. I expect a lot of runs in this one by both teams and a low scoring, field position type of a division battle. In those types of games, give me the points.
Picks: Lions +4.5 (Padlock), Under 52.5 (Deadbolt)
Texans (-6.5) @ Jaguars: O/U 50.5
ATS: Texans: 1–6, Jaguars: 2–5
O/U: Texans: 5–1–1, Jaguars: 4–3
Both of these 1–6 teams come into this AFC South battle off of their bye weeks. In an important game for draft position at year’s end, it’s very tough to have confidence in either team to win this game.
I’m taking the Texans giving up 6.5 points. At the end of the day, Deshaun Watson is still the QB of the Texans while Jake Luton will be debuting at QB for the Jaguars. That made the pick pretty easy.
Picks: Texans -6.5 (Padlock), Under 50.5 (Deadbolt)
Giants @ Football Team (-2.5): O/U 42.5
ATS: Giants: 5–3, Football Team: 3–3–1
O/U: Giants: 3–5, Football Team: 3–4
This is the 2nd matchup in 4 weeks for these two division rivals. Neither team has won a game outside of the NFC East all season. The Giants enter the game off of a strong performance, albeit in a loss, on Monday Night against the Buccaneers. The Football Team got to enjoy their victory from 2 weeks ago against the Cowboys for an extra week as they come into this one off of their bye.
I’m taking the Giants getting 2.5 points. The first battle between these two teams was a low scoring, 1 point victory by the Giants. I expect another low scoring, tight battle between two teams that are well-coached and play hard, especially on defense. I envision this game ending with a game winning field goal by one of these teams, giving them hope of winning this division.
Picks: Giants +2.5 (Deadbolt), Under 42.5 (Deadbolt)
Seahawks (-3) @ Bills: O/U 54.5
ATS: Seahawks: 5–2, Bills: 3–5
O/U: Seahawks: 6–1, Bills: 6–2
A great inter-conference battle here between two 6-win teams with hopes of playing deep into January. The Seahawks come into it off of a convincing division win last week against the 49ers where Russell Wilson and DK Metcalf continued their stellar seasons. The Bills got a nice division victory of their own last week, although less convincingly, against the Patriots.
I’ll lay a field goal with the Seahawks here. I expect a shootout with Wilson and Josh Allen leading their offenses up and down the field. The advantage in the red zone belongs to the Seahawks, so I give them the edge in this battle.
Picks: Seahawks -3 (Deadbolt), Over 54.5 (Padlock)
Raiders @ Chargers (-1): O/U 51.5
ATS: Raiders: 4–3, Chargers: 5–2
O/U: Raiders: 6–1, Chargers: 4–3
Poor Chargers fans. They did it again. After going up 24–3 midway through the 3rd quarter, they managed to find a way to lose… again. The Raiders on the other hand got an important win for AFC Wild Card tiebreaker purposes by beating the Browns in an ugly game impacted significantly be weather. This one should not have any weather-related issues.
I like the Raiders getting a point here. The Chargers have shown a knack for losing games, so despite the strong play of Herbert, I can’t confidently pick them in a game that the Raiders need to win to keep pace in the AFC Wild Card race.
Picks: Raiders +1 (Deadbolt), Over 51.5 (Padlock)
Dolphins @ Cardinals (-4): O/U 49.5
ATS: Dolphins: 5–2, Cardinals: 5–2
O/U: Dolphins: 2–5, Cardinals: 1–6
After starting the season 1–3, the Dolphins enter this game on a 3-game winning streak, including winning an impressive one last week against another NFC West team in the Rams. The Cardinals also enter this one on a 3-game winning streak of their own, which means either the Dolphins or the Cardinals will exit this game on a 4-game winning streak. Wow.
Give me the Cardinals laying 4 points here. I like the Dolphins defense and they’ve been a big surprise team so far on the season, but Tua didn’t show enough last week to give me confidence in him just yet. The Cardinals won’t have Kenyan Drake in this one, but Kyler Murray is just so dynamic that it won’t matter. Give me the home team.
Picks: Cardinals -4 (Deadbolt), Under 49.5 (Padlock)
Steelers (-14) @ Cowboys: O/U 41.5
ATS: Steelers: 6–1, Cowboys: 0–8
O/U: Steelers: 4–2–1, Cowboys: 4–4
Garrett Gilbert will be the 4th starting QB in the last 5 weeks for this sad Cowboys team. A battle between two of the most storied franchises in the NFL doesn’t appear to be one that will be particularly competitive. The Steelers remain undefeated and have weapons all over their team. The Cowboys competed last week against the Eagles, but this team stinks. Does anyone still doubt that Dak Prescott was a top QB in this league? I doubt it.
I’m taking the Steelers laying 2 TDs. Not much to think about here. The Steelers are absolutely elite on offense and on defense. The Cowboys can’t stop anyone (other than the Eagles apparently) and can’t score points. This is going to be a laugher.
Picks: Steelers -14 (Fort Knox), Over 41.5 (Deadbolt)
Saints @ Buccaneers (-4.5): O/U 50.5
ATS: Saints: 2–5, Buccaneers: 4–4
O/U: Saints: 7–0, Buccaneers: 5–3
Get your popcorn ready for this one. These two NFC South teams met back in Week 1 in Tom Brady’s first game for the Bucs. Drew Brees and the Saints won that one by double digits. Since then, Michael Thomas has not played but he does appear to be coming back this week. The Saints will be happy to have him back, as they’re set to face a Buccaneers team with newly acquired WR Antonio Brown playing for the first time since Week 2 of 2019. The winner of this one will leave Week 9 atop the NFC South. What a way to end Sunday Night.
I’m taking the Saints getting 4.5 points. The Buccaneers may be the best team in the NFC. I expect them to bounce back from a disappointing performance last Monday Night. But 4.5 points is a lot to give Drew Brees and this Saints team with Michael Thomas back in action. I’m taking the points.
Picks: Saints +4.5 (Padlock), Over 50.5 (Deadbolt)
Patriots (-9.5) @ Jets: O/U 41
ATS: Patriots: 3–4, Jets: 1–7
O/U: Patriots: 3–4, Jets: 3–5
Patriots stink. Jets stink. But it’s Monday Night Football between two division rivals. That makes it watchable. Cam Newton’s fumble last week at the end of the game against the Bills essentially sank any chance for the Patriots to be relevant late into the season. The Jets are running out of “winnable” games as they try to avoid the dreaded 0–16 season.
I’m actually taking the Joe Flacco-led Jets getting 9.5 points here, and I’m fairly confident in doing so. As bad as the Jets are, the Patriots should not be favored by 9.5 points against anyone right now. Let’s go Jets!
